Canelo Alvarez Bets: Betting Breakdown, Value Bets, Best Promos Vs. Billy Joe Saunders

Posted By Dave Bontempo on May 5, 2021 - Last Updated on May 17, 2021

Canelo Alvarez already won the Battle of the Bluff. Now comes Saturday’s 168-pound championship blockbuster against Billy Joe Saunders before an expected crowd of 70,000 at AT&T Stadium in Dallas. Those looking to get down Canelo Alvarez bets may need to look at method of victory markets.

Alvarez, a whopping -775 DraftKings Sportsbook chalk, kept his poker face while Saunders, +450, threatened to walk away from the fight over the size of the ring.

These items are negotiated in advance so when Canelo’s handlers began floating names of potential replacements for Saunders, the fight was magically ‘back on’.

Promoters seeing this boxing version of a 2 and 7 off-suit Texas Hold ‘Em hand let Saunders graciously fold. But what’s interesting about this battleground – compared to most other pre-fight hype battles – is that it reflected the bets on each side.

Canelo, a strong puncher, wants a small ring in order to keep Saunders from circling. Saunders wants the largest ring possible to stay away from Canelo’s power. Bettors on either side want those things too.

Canelo Alvarez Bets: Past Performance

Canelo, 55-1-2 with 37 knockouts, defends his WBA, WBC and Ring magazine 168-pound belts. He’s held titles in four weight classes: 154, 160, 168 and 175 pounds. In successive fights over recent years, he notched titles at 168 (over Rocky Fielding), 160 (beating Daniel Jacobs) and 175 (stopping Sergey Kovalev).

Saunders, 30-0 with 14 knockouts, defends his WB0 title. The winner of this fight will have four 168-pound belts. Saunders previously captured a middleweight (160-pound) title.

This fight should shatter the stadium boxing-attendance mark of 51,240 for Alvarez’s ninth-round knockout of Liam Smith in 2016. It also will eclipse the announced Kentucky Derby mark of 51,838 on May 1, and thus, become the largest gathering for any event in the United States since the pandemic broke out in March 2020.

It will be a loud pro-Canelo crowd.

How to watch Alvarez vs. Saunders

DAZN streaming service: Saturday, May 8th, 8 p.m. eastern

Canelo Alvarez Bets: Best Promo For New Users

DraftKings Sportsbook has 55-1 odds (+5500) for first-time users.

Make a deposit of $5 or more into your sportsbook account. You’ll be issued one single-use odds boost for either fighter to win (moneyline). Remember to select the boost from your betslip before placing the bet to apply the boosted price.

Maximum bet $1.

Don’t forget to scour the boards. Closer to fight time, books may put up promos to entice traffic or boosts that let bettors eliminate the vig.

Betting Breakdown

Saunders backers have an easy decision to go moneyline. The price is right for an undefeated fighter who has a belt and owns nice victories over Andy Lee and David Lemieux, two former champions. The Lemieux victory in 2017 was impressive because Saunders won on Lemieux’s turf in Canada.

Saunders bettors now also know they are going up against the house. Canelo is boxing’s cash cow, feeding networks, promoters, arena operators, etc. He’s received his share of generous scoring over the years and it would be exceedingly difficult to obtain a decision against him.

Canelo backers must nail the right method in order to collect, but they have an excellent menu on a fight otherwise unplayable on the moneyline. Options include a KO/TKO at -110 or points at +150.

DraftKings Sportsbook has also added an odds boost for an Alvarez KO/TKO/DQ win, boosted to +150 (max bet $25)

Favorite Value Bets

The DraftKings board contains a great boxing betting option: a range of which round a knockout will happen.

Without it, bettors must select a lopsided favorite or take a 1-in-12 stab to land the right stoppage round. This prop also depends on whether one combatant fights only to survive or whether a fight is stopped between rounds by a corner or a few seconds into the subsequent round by a referee.

A grouping gives bettors room to work. Pick your comfort level.

Want to expand beyond -110 for a Canelo KO/TKO? Cut the menu in half, selecting rounds 1-6 at +350 or rounds 7-12 at +175.

Feeling more precise? Cut the fight into four segments:

  • Canelo to win in rounds 1 to 3: +1200
  • Canelo to win in rounds 4-6: + 575
  • Canelo to win in rounds 7-9: +350.
  • Canelo to win in rounds 10-12: +475.

Can’t decide who to back? The board tells you the fight to go the distance is -130 and to go under is -105. Fair odds, playable from both sides.

Alvarez vs. Saunders Intangibles

There is little height and reach separation. Saunders is a southpaw and could disrupt the rhythm of the fight for Canelo. That suggests a long fight.

Alvarez is a pulverizing body puncher and has exceptional left-hook power. Once he hurts an opponent, Canelo doesn’t let him escape. This suggests the fight can change quickly.

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Dave Bontempo

Dave Bontempo, who writes extensively on the emergence of legalized sports betting, is a recipient of the Sam Taub Award for Broadcast Excellence by the Boxing Writers Association of America. He has broadcast boxing for all the major networks over the last four decades and is a member of the New Jersey Boxing Hall of Fame as well as the Atlantic City Boxing Hall of Fame. His work also can be seen at the Press of Atlantic City and iGamingPlayer.

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