2024 Canadian Grand Prix Odds: Will Leclerc Win Again?

After Charles Leclerc’s emotional home race win in Monaco, the F1 calendar makes a pit stop in Montreal. In what’s expected to be a wet track, F1 odds could provide a wild outcome. Considering Max Verstappen already downplayed his expectations for Montreal, Ferrari and McLaren’s teams may profit. The other beneficiary is you — or anyone betting on it. Canadian Grand Prix odds showcase juicy value.

Make sure to check out the best sports betting sites to get the best prices all weekend long. Let’s break down my picks.

Canadian Grand Prix Odds

Montreal Grand Prix Qualifying odds

Qualifying will likely be wet in Montreal, as it has been the last two years. Max Verstappen ended up on pole both times — albeit without then-title rival Charles Leclerc taking part in Quali in 2022. Moreover, fairly random drivers have joined Verstappen on the front row.

Fernando Alonso finished second in 2022 in a mediocre Alpine, and Nico Hulkenberg put Haas on the front row last year before penalties demoted him.

Wet weather is usually a great equalizer because getting tire temperature is more important than the car’s latent characteristics. In 2021, George Russell put a Williams on the front row in Belgium despite that car being 1.5 seconds off the pace in dry Friday practice that same weekend. Traditional assumptions about who will make Q3 should be thrown out.

Red Bull, Ferrari, Mercedes, and McLaren should occupy roughly eight Q3 spots in a traditional dry weekend. The chances of that number sliding down and opening more spots for midfield and backmarker teams are high.

Charles Leclerc

The Monegasque driver should still be flying high from winning his home race. Expect that to continue. Leclerc doesn’t have a great history in Montreal, but he didn’t compete in qualifying when he had his fastest car because of engine penalties.

His only other time in a top car saw him come in third in qualifying, albeit seventh-tenths of a second off his teammate’s pole time. At the end of the day, navigating wet weather is as much about speed as confidence. After Monaco, I trust no one more than Leclerc to find a lap that might be out there.

Sergio Perez

On the confidence scale, Checo is the polar opposite. Perez re-signed for his Red Bull drive, but he’s been dreadful since China. Overall, his elimination in Q2 in Imola and Q1 in Monaco are unacceptable results. He failed to make Q3 the last two years in Montreal, including a wet weather crash in 2022

Perez’s Red Bull teammate is already talking down the car. I’m full-fading Checo in Quali this weekend. A Red Bull driver who has been out-qualified 5 times in 1.5 seasons, including Monaco, by Logan Sargeant in a Williams, does not deserve backing from our wallets.

Montreal Grand Prix breakdown

Sunday looks better, with a dry patch hours before the race and only light rain forecast for the start. In 2022, Carlos Sainz proved he could go wire-to-wire with Verstappen but failed to pass him at the end after a safety car, which meant that both had fresh tires for the end.

Had Leclerc, who started 20th with engine penalties, been the one at the front, he likely would have won. With that in mind, there’s every reason to think Ferrari can win this weekend. This should be a two-car race with plenty of room to overtake down the double straights and plenty of slow corners. That said, I’ve bet Leclerc to win.

As of this publishing, his best odds in the table above are +550 at FanDuel Sportsbook.

McLaren

The McLarens have made up a lot of pace, and Lando Norris (regrettably) tallied his first win in Miami. But McLaren’s weaknesses are straight-line speed and slow corners, and the track is full of them. Slow corners and long straights aren’t nearly the weakness that it was before the Miami upgrade package.

Even in Miami, Norris couldn’t get by Checo for many laps down the back straight. It’s not a great track for their car. They’ll return to the hunt for wins in Spain.

Mercedes

The Mercedes is the wild card here. George Russell has qualified well in the wet, and Lewis Hamilton has won in Montreal seven times.

Lewis has been on the podium in Montreal for the last two years, and Russell nabbed a fourth-place finish in 2022. Russell has been within milliseconds of the second row in the last two races. Additionally, the Mercedes will continue to be upgraded.

The straight-line speed is a concern, but a wet weather grid can limit it. Lewis put it on the front row in China’s wet sprint qualifying. Both Mercs are in play for top-six finishes. Russell over Oscar and George over Norris’ head-to-head odds should also be considered.

Williams

Alex Albon is the other car to highlight. The Williams driver managed seventh place in Canada in 2023, topped the Q2 timing boards, and generally maximized a subpar car. The Williams’ best characteristic is straight-line speed, insinuating that even if cars have DRS on Albon down the double straights, they struggle to pass.

Ask Esteban Ocon, who was stuck behind Albon with DRS and fresher tires for ages last year. Q3, points, and best without the top-five teams (Red Bull, Ferrari, Mercedes, McLaren, Aston) in Quali and the race make Albon’s odds a great value play. Heck, I’m even looking to bet Logan Sargeant will make Q2. That’s how good Williams is around Montreal.

Best of luck betting on Canadian Grand Prix odds!

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