How Cam Newton Release Stirs Betting Markets For Patriots Futures, Mac Jones

Written By Brett Gibbons on August 31, 2021
cam newton release

Sometimes, the guys at the top need to remind everyone else why they’re at the top. On Tuesday morning, just hours before NFL teams need to finalize their 53-man roster, Bill Belichick pulled another iconic Belichick move and cut presumed starter Cam Newton.

Every season, there are surprise cuts on the final day. However, cutting a presumed starting quarterback might just be next-level Bill.

That means first-round draft pick Mac Jones is in the driver’s seat this season. How does Jones move New England Patriots futures markets? Does the shift to QB1 vault Jones to the top of Offensive Rookie of the Year odds boards?

Related: New England Patriots vs. Miami Dolphins Week 1 full betting preview

Offensive Rookie of the Year movement

Just a couple weeks ago, after the first week of preseason, Trevor Lawrence was the favorite to win the Offensive Rookie of the Year (OROY) award at +325. However, buzz was generating around 49ers rookie Trey Lance after a pair of long touchdown throws went viral.

At that time, the league hadn’t seen much of Mac Jones. In fact, he was just a day or two out of sporting his infamous #50 during camp. Jones was +1400 in that report and saw just 1.8% of tickets placed on him (13th). A few sharp bettors saw value in him, with 3.9% of the handle landing on Jones as of August 18 (ninth-most).

Immediately following the news, Jones jumped from +1000 to now.

Mac Jones futures odds

This season, oddsmakers stat Mac Jones out for passing yards, just over 223 yards per game, and . The numbers are bullish for a run-first system, but Jones directed the offense well in the preseason.

For reference points, Trevor Lawrence is slotted for yards and Zach Wilson is listed at .

Veterans with similar totals include Ryan Fitzpatrick () and Daniel Jones ().

Patriots Futures movement

With Cam Newton presumed as the Week 1 starter, the Patriots were listed at +3700 to win Super Bowl LVI, +360 to win the AFC East, +110 to make the playoffs, and had a projected win total of 9.5 (+105).

Sportsbooks immediately removed Patriots futures, including win totals and odds to make the playoffs, while they reassessed before reposting a few hours later.

The needle didn’t move very far, with New England’s win total remaining , albeit with a shorter price. Their odds to make the playoffs regressed slightly to .

It’s clear under Jones, the Patriots will have a different offensive identity than they had under Newton.

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Brett Gibbons

Brett is an avid sports traveler and former Division-I football recruiter for Bowling Green and Texas State. He’s a graduate of BGSU and works as an auditor for Google content curation products. He’s also contributed to Sports Illustrated and Fansided during his young writing career.

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