New Town For Newton: Patriots’ Signing Of Cam Greatly Impacting AFC East, NFL MVP Odds

Posted By Nate Weitzer on June 30, 2020

In late April, the New England Patriots’ odds to sign free agent QB Cam Newton jumped suddenly from +400 to -190 at FanDuel Sportsbook, but the team told beat reporters that they had “zero interest” in the 2015 NFL MVP.

It turns out Bill Belichick and company were playing possum. On Monday, the Patriots announced they were signing Newton to a one-year deal, worth the veteran minimum, but offering up to $7.5 million in incentives.

Those bettors who read through that misdirection were rewarded handsomely. The biggest early bet on the Pats to sign Newton at FanDuel came in at $250 at +500 odds, cashing $1,500 total. Three other bettors placed $950 bets when the Pats were given -190 odds to sign Newton, profiting $500 on each wager.

While we don’t yet know if Newton or Jarrett Stidham will win the starting job for New England as the organization looks to move on without Tom Brady, sportsbooks moved quickly to adjust futures odds once the Pats officially brought in Newton.

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Patriots futures

AFC East

New England Patriots (+100 at FanDuel Sportsbook): The Pats were even or trailed the Buffalo Bills at most books prior to the signing, but now the Patriots are even money and the Bills (+160) are slight underdogs.

New England Patriots (+110 at DraftKings Sportsbook): The Pats made an even bigger jump from +240 to +110 odds at DraftKings Sportsbook.

AFC Champion

New England Patriots (+700 at FanDuel Sportsbook): After reaching a low point of +1200 odds to win the AFC, the Pats are now the third favorite behind the Chiefs (+310) and Ravens (+340).

New England Patriots (+600 at DraftKings Sportsbook): At DK, the Patriots odds were cut in half to +600, giving the perennial AFC favorites a good shot to dethrone the Chiefs or battle the Ravens for a Super Bowl berth.

Super Bowl LV champion

New England Patriots (+1700 at FanDuel Sportsbook): The Pats went from the middle of the pack of contenders at +2300 odds to win the Super Bowl, to +1700 odds, sitting right behind Brady’s Bucs (+1500) and tied with the Dallas Cowboys (+1700) as the sixth favorite to win it all.

New England Patriots (+1700 at DraftKings Sportsbook): The Pats also sit at +1700 odds to win the Super Bowl at DK, a small jump from their +2000 odds prior to the signing.

Super Bowl LV Winner

Game
02/07/2021
(Eastern Time)
(EST)
Kansas City
Bet now
+600
Bet now
+650
Bet now
+600
Baltimore
Bet now
+650
Bet now
+700
Bet now
+650
San Francisco
Bet now
+1000
Bet now
+900
Bet now
+900
New Orleans
Bet now
+1200
Bet now
+1200
Bet now
+1200
Tampa Bay
Bet now
+1300
Bet now
+1500
Bet now
+1400
Dallas
Bet now
+1700
Bet now
+1700
Bet now
+1500
New England
Bet now
+1700
Bet now
+1700
Bet now
+1900
Philadelphia
Bet now
+2000
Bet now
+1900
Bet now
+2000
Seattle
Bet now
+2200
Bet now
+2100
Bet now
+2200
Indianapolis
Bet now
+2500
Bet now
+2400
Bet now
+2800
Minnesota
Bet now
+2500
Bet now
+2500
Bet now
+2800
Pittsburgh
Bet now
+2500
Bet now
+2400
Bet now
+2500
Buffalo
Bet now
+2800
Bet now
+2700
Bet now
+2500
Green Bay
Bet now
+2800
Bet now
+2500
Bet now
+2500
Tennessee
Bet now
+3000
Bet now
+3000
Bet now
+3000
LA Rams
Bet now
+3300
Bet now
+2800
Bet now
+3000
Atlanta
Bet now
+4000
Bet now
+4600
Bet now
+4000
Chicago
Bet now
+4000
Bet now
+4000
Bet now
+4000
Cleveland
Bet now
+4000
Bet now
+3400
Bet now
+3600
LA Chargers
Bet now
+4500
Bet now
+3200
Bet now
+4000
Denver
Bet now
+5000
Bet now
+6000
Bet now
+5000
Houston
Bet now
+5000
Bet now
+4600
Bet now
+5000
Arizona
Bet now
+5000
Bet now
+5000
Bet now
+4500
Las Vegas
Bet now
+6600
Bet now
+6000
Bet now
+6000
Detroit
Bet now
+6600
Bet now
+6600
Bet now
+7000
NY Jets
Bet now
+7000
Bet now
+7000
Bet now
+7000
NY Giants
Bet now
+7000
Bet now
+8000
Bet now
+8000
Miami
Bet now
+7000
Bet now
+80000
Bet now
+8000
Carolina
Bet now
+10000
Bet now
+7000
Bet now
+10000
Cincinnati
Bet now
+10000
Bet now
+15000
Bet now
+12500
Washington
Bet now
+10000
Bet now
+15000
Bet now
+17500
Jacksonville
Bet now
+15000
Bet now
+20000
Bet now
+25000

Cam Newton futures

MVP

MVP (+3200 at FanDuel Sportsbook): While he’s not a top choice to win MVP, Newton is now in the conversation in terms of futures odds. He has better odds than Jimmy Garoppolo (+3500) or Philip Rivers (+3400) at FanDuel and is within shouting distance of Brady (+1800) and Aaron Rodgers (+2300).

MVP (+3000 at DraftKings Sportsbook): At DK, Newton is even with Aaron Rodgers at +3000 odds.

MVP Winner

Game
02/01/2020
(Eastern Time)
(EST)
Patrick Mahomes
Bet now
+400
Bet now
+380
Lamar Jackson
Bet now
+700
Bet now
+700
Russell Wilson
Bet now
+800
Bet now
+700
Dak Prescott
Bet now
+1400
Bet now
+1200
Tom Brady
Bet now
+1600
Bet now
+1800
Carson Wentz
Bet now
+2000
Bet now
+1700
Drew Brees
Bet now
+2500
Bet now
+1700
Kyler Murray
Bet now
+2500
Bet now
+2300
Deshaun Watson
Bet now
+2500
Bet now
+1700
Cam Newton
Bet now
+3000
Bet now
+3200
Aaron Rodgers
Bet now
+3000
Bet now
+2300
Baker Mayfield
Bet now
+3300
Bet now
+2900
Jimmy Garoppolo
Bet now
+4000
Bet now
+3500
Josh Allen (Bills)
Bet now
+5000
Bet now
+5000
Saquon Barkley
Bet now
+5000
Bet now
+5500
Derrick Henry
Bet now
+5000
Bet now
+5000
Christian McCaffrey
Bet now
+5000
Bet now
+5000
Ben Roethlisberger
Bet now
+5000
Bet now
+4400

Comeback Player of the Year

Comeback Player of the Year (+400 at DraftKings Sportsbook): Newton is considered the second favorite to win Comeback POY at DK, right behind Ben Roethlisberger (+300) and in front of the oft-injured J.J. Watt (+700). Newton has been mired by shoulder and foot injuries that led the Panthers to keep him inactive last season and eventually release him.

Comeback Player of the Year (+340 at FanDuel Sportsbook): Newton has higher odds for Comeback POY at FanDuel, and is still behind Roethlisberger (+260) with Rob Gronkowski (+420) coming in as the third favorite.

Conclusions

In 2016, Newton struggled badly to follow up his MVP season and he was one of the least accurate QBs in the league. He bounced back in 2017, but continued to take a pounding behind a shoddy offensive line and rarely got the same protection as smaller, older quarterbacks. In 2018, he took a hard hit from T.J. Watt and never seemed to recover, eventually missing the Panthers’ final two games that season.

The 6-foot-6, 245-pound QB has undergone two major shoulder surgeries and foot surgery to repair a Lisfranc injury. There was a limited market for Newton because NFL teams couldn’t see him work out or examine him physically during the pandemic, so the Patriots capitalized with a low-risk, high-reward deal.

Will Newton resume his MVP form? Likely not, but Belichick and Josh McDaniels will almost certainly make him look good if they craft their offense around his skill set. He might not have the accuracy or touch of the best QBs in the NFL, but frankly, Brady was never a great deep ball passer, and he thrived by utilizing short crossing routes and seam routes over the past few years.

If healthy, Newton can use his versatile skill set to keep defenses off balance and showcase a new style of offense in New England. Taking a longshot on him to win MVP is likely foolish, but +400 odds to win Comeback POY is enticing, and stay tuned for props on his exact stats this season.

For the Patriots, Newton’s presence certainly bolsters their chances, but we’re not advising a futures bet on them to win the AFC or the Super Bowl. Newton will still have limited, inexperienced receivers to target, and the Patriots are dealing with huge losses to their LB corps on the other side of the ball. Combine that with a brutal schedule, and we still like the Bills to win the AFC East. So perhaps you can use this odds shift to capitalize on better odds for the Bills.

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