2024 NFL Offensive Rookie Of The Year Bets: Bears QB Caleb Williams bet365 Odds Movement
With the NFL regular season two weeks away, betting markets have started shifting for this season’s awards markets, including odds for NFL Rookie of the Year. Caleb Williams, drafted first overall by the Chicago Bears, is still favored to win Offensive Rookie of the Year at +240. Conversely, fellow signal-caller Bo Nix has lept up the board. Let’s dissect the 2024 Rookie of the Year odds movement, highlighting Williams’ slight dip.
Click any odds for NFL OROY to place a bet. These prices are courtesy of bet365 Sportsbook.
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2024 offensive ROY odds
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Caleb Williams
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Jayden Daniels
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Marvin Harrison Jr.
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Malik Nabors
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Bo nix
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Xavier Worthy
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Ladd McConkey
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Drake maye
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Keon Coleman
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Brian thomas jr.
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Brock Bowers
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Caleb Williams: 2024 rookie of the year odds Movement
Even before the Bears picked Williams on April 25, the USC and Oklahoma product was favored to win the award at +275. After the draft, those odds shrunk to +200 before shrinking to the +150 range at the best sports betting sites earlier in August. That’s equivalent to a 40% implied probability.
However, Williams’ odds have risen to +240 at bet365, generating a 29.4% implied probability. This adjustment is not a byproduct of poor preseason performances. In fact, Williams completed a remarkable pass during the second quarter of Saturday’s duel versus the Bengals, whirling outside the pocket before delivering an off-balance dime to rookie wideout Rome Odunze downfield.
Chicago went 2-6 in one-score games in 2023, blowing three different matchups while possessing a fourth-quarter win probability of 80% or higher. Many of those losses stemmed from the inability to close out games with now-Steelers quarterback Justin Fields. On top of the QB upgrade, Chicago reeled in veteran standout Keenan Allen and offensive play-caller Shane Waldron in the offseason.
Among the NFL playoff odds, the Bears are essentially a coin flip to make it. Their best price is currently .
Williams’ hype is warranted, and he’s projected to face the easiest set of NFL pass defenses during his rookie campaign. Even in a loaded NFC North, those odds for the Bears to make the postseason aren’t crazy.
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bo nix surges in 2024 Rookie of the year odds
Let’s rewind to the 2024 NFL Draft. One of the most intriguing markets was how many QBs would be selected in the first round. The odds were stacked toward the under.
After the Broncos surprisingly selected Nix with the No. 12 overall pick, his odds of taking home the Offensive ROY award were closer to +3000 before moving to +1800 during the preseason. Hence, Nix was deemed more of a longshot, especially following the draft.
He’s yet to officially claim the starting job ahead of Denver’s Week 1 affair in Seattle, but all signs point to him earning it. Nix followed up his 125-yard performance versus the Colts in the Broncos’ first preseason duel by completing 8-of-9 passes for 80 yards and his second passing touchdown in Sunday’s blowout victory over the Packers.
Can Nix Unseat Williams Midseason?
Over at BetMGM, Nix’s odds are down to because 13.9% of tickets for OROY are on the Broncos QB, good for the second most in this market behind Cardinals wideout Marvin Harrison Jr. ().
At bet365, you’re getting better odds, +1400 for Nix at the time of publishing. It’s the fifth-shortest price in the market. Nix’s chances of winning OROY hinge upon Denver’s ability to at least exceed its NFL win total of 5.5.
While the Broncos’ odds hovered around playoff contention last year, their aspirations were largely fueled by a four-game winning streak.
Denver forced 14 fumbles in that span, recovering 64% of them. Overall, Sean Payton’s team forced the second-most fumbles across the league.
Let’s say you buy into Nix’s upside in Payton’s QB-friendly system — albeit against backup defenders thus far. I have difficulty making the case for his OROY odds, considering the Broncos’ potential turnover regression and defensive personnel downgrades since then.
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