Caesars Sportsbook is offering one of the most unique cross-league prop markets out there. The book priced 10 head-to-head 2022 win totals between NFL and CFB teams. For example, will the Los Angeles Rams or Georgia Bulldogs win more games this coming season? The premise, while seemingly even, potentially has good value.
Below, we’ll look at the most enticing bets in this market.
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NFL vs. CFB head to head win totals
All numbers below were taken from Caesars Sportsbook on June 20.
| NFL Team | NFL Win Total | Prop Price | CFB Team | CFB Win Total | Prop Price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Rams | 10.5 (over -120) | -115 | Georgia Bulldogs | 11.5 (over +150) | -115 |
| Seattle Seahawks | 6.0 (over +100) | -110 | Oregon State Beavers | 6.0 (over -115) | -120 |
| New York Giants | 7.0 (over +105) | -120 | LSU Tigers | 7.0 (over +100) | -110 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 9.5 (over -110) | -125 | Cincinnati Bearcats | 9.5 (over -115) | -105 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 7.5 (over +105) | -115 | Pittsburgh Panthers | 8.5 (over -140) | -115 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 10.5 (over -115) | -125 | Ohio State Buckeyes | 11.0 (over -140) | -105 |
| New England Patriots | 8.5 (over -130) | -115 | Notre Dame Fighting Irish | 8.5 (over -110) | -115 |
| Miami Dolphins | 8.5 (over -135) | -125 | Miami Hurricanes | 8.5 (over -115) | -105 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 11.5 (over +100) | -125 | Alabama Crimson Tide | 11.0 (over -140) | -105 |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 8.5 (over +100) | -115 | USC Trojans | 9.0 (over -170) | -115 |
Handicapping This Market
First, let’s get the obvious out of the way: the NFL teams have an outright win totals advantage because they play five more regular season games than the CFB teams. That right there is enough to give the nod to the NFL teams who have comparable expectations this season.
The strongest projected NFL teams should be the first ones you consider here, but here are three NFL teams outside that top tier perhaps worth fading in this speciality market.
Seattle Seahawks vs. Oregon State Beavers (-120)
The first matchup we’re looking at pits a pair of teams with a 6.0 win total. The difference here is the juice, which we can convert into implied probability. According to Caesars, Seattle over 6.0 wins (+100) has a 50% implied probability while Oregon State over 6.0 wins (-115) has a 53.5% implied probability. With that math, you can move the 6.5% hold on this prop down to 3.0% (think less hold than a standard -110/-110 prop).
Despite a difficult schedule, Oregon State’s win total is too low. This is one of 21 teams returning a head coach, both coordinators, and their QB; they also return three of five starters on an award-finalist offensive line. On the flip side, the Seahawks still don’t have an NFL-starter caliber QB. If we are to assume these win totals are fairly accurate, this is asking a top-half team in FPI (53rd) that returns 72% of production to be bowl-ineligible. Either that or for the NFL’s arguably least-talented roster to challenge for a .500 record this season.
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Pittsburgh Panthers (-115)
Again, this prop is best evaluated by looking at implied probabilities for each team’s win total:
- Steelers 48.8% implied probability to go over 7.5 (+105)
- Panthers 58.3% implied probability to go over 8.5 (-140)
Right off the bat, a spider-sense should be tingling. In fact, Caesars offers an alternate win total for the Steelers over 8.5 wins (+230)– just a 30.3% implied probability of going over that win total. The original prop has a 6.52% hold, but the discrepancy in this alternate win total pushes the hold well toward the bettor (the flat -140/+230 synthetic market is -12.8% hold for the book). Just from a logic principal, this should be Pitt.
- A personal note with this prop: Mike Tomlin has never won fewer than 8 games with the Steelers (since 2007). I believe Pitt is rated too highly for having lost a Heisman finalist QB, a Biletnikoff Award-winning receiver, and an innovative offensive coordinator. Still, the discrepancy between these two teams’ win total implied probabilities is pretty steep.
Las Vegas Raiders vs. USC Trojans (-115)
It’s tough to use just Caesars’ numbers to properly evaluate this prop. It’s tough to adjust the the Raiders’ 8.5 wins (over +100) and USC’s wins (9.0 over -170), but we can use Las Vegas’ adjusted win total 9.5 wins (over +180) and FanDuel Sportsbook’s USC win total of 9.5 (over -160). Yet again, consider this two-way market:
- Raiders 35.7% implied probability to go over 9.5 wins (+180)
- USC 61.5% implied probability to go over 9.5 wins (-160)
This takes the 6.5% hold on the prop down to 3.7% (again, less than a standard -110/-110 prop).
However, sportsbooks and metrics like FPI and SP+ disagree. FPI pins USC for 7.9 wins this coming season, but the Trojans’ schedule is favorable for more wins. With the Raiders having five more chances than USC to win games, this one can be a dicy proposition. The Raiders play in the NFL’s toughest division, draw four playoff teams in their first five games and four playoff teams in their final five games. The two games in those stretches that aren’t playoff teams from 2021? Against new-look Denver and at Pittsburgh.
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