Maple Leafs vs. Senators Prediction, Odds and Props for Oct. 3: Toronto Wins Again

Written By Jason Green | Published at October 3, 2026

Maple Leafs vs. Senators prediction for Atlantic Division matchup. Toronto is 1-1 and Ottawa is playing in their first game, — Sep 29, 2026; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Maple Leafs forward William Nylander (88) celebrates after scoring a goal against the Montreal Canadiens in the first period at Scotiabank Arena. Mandatory Credit: Dan Hamilton-Imagn Images

The Maple Leafs have already played two games, and they're back at home in an Atlantic Division matchup against the Ottawa Senators, who are playing in their first game. Let’s break down this Maple Leafs vs. Senators prediction to cover key game info, betting trends, the starting goalie matchup, the latest odds, and some value prop bets.

After losing their season opener, the Maple Leafs got their first win of the season in their last game with a 2-1 home win over the New York Islanders. Toronto scored both goals in the first period, with Colton Sissons lighting the lamp and Easton Cowan doing so on a power play. Backup G Anthony Stolarz was solid in between the pipes, stopping 26 of 27 shots.

Last season, the Senators had the sixth-most points in the Eastern Conference but were swept in the first round of the playoffs by the Carolina Hurricanes, who went on to win the Stanley Cup.

Tim Stutzle and Drake Batherson lead the Ottawa attack, and last season they combined for 77 goals. One big question is how the team will fare without captain Brady Tkachuk (22 goals, 59 points last season), who requested a trade and was dealt to the Florida Panthers for two first-round picks in the last draft and a conditional first-round pick in 2029.

One key to the Senators' season is top netminder Linus Ullmark. Last season he was 28-12-8 with a GAA of 2.73 and a save percentage of .891. Ottawa needs him to play as he did in the last 19 games of the season after the Olympic break, when he was 12-4 with a GAA of 2.51 and a save percentage of .902.

Maple Leafs vs. Senators Odds

Here are the odds for this division clash at Bet365 Sportsbook.

Moneyline: Maple Leafs (-125) / Senators (+105)
Total (Over/Under): Over 6.5 goals (-125) / Under 6.5 goals (+105)
Puck Line: Maple Leafs -1.5 goals (+185) / Senators +1.5 goals (-225)

In this game, the Maple Leafs are a slight favorite, and in a moneyline example using $100, you bet $100 to win $105 on the underdog Senators and $125 to win $100 on the favored Maple Leafs.

Our moneyline betting guide has more information on the most popular NHL bet.

Toronto Maple Leafs Betting Trends

The total has gone Under for both of the games for the Maple Leafs this season.
They have been the betting favorites in both of their games.
They have a puck line record of 1-1 this season.

Last season, the Maple Leafs beat the Senators in their first game but then lost the last three matchups. The win in their last game snapped their eight-game losing streak, as they dropped their last seven games last season.

Ottawa Senators Betting Trends

Last season the Senators were 40-46-0 with the puck line.
Last season they had an Over/Under record of 44-41-1.
Last season they were 21-15-5 on the road.

Ottawa went 1-5 in the preseason, including two losses to Toronto, where they were outscored 10-3.

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Key Stats

Senators (Last season)

Goals per game: 8th
Goals against per game: 13th

Maple Leafs (This season)

Goals per game: 16th
Goals against per game: tied for 8th

Probable Starting Goalies

Senators

Linus Ullmark (28-12-8, 2.73 GAA, 891 save %) gets the start between the pipes, and last season was 2-1 against the Maple Leafs, giving up a total of eight goals.

Maple Leafs

Sergei Bobrovsky got the start in the season opener as Toronto's top goalie and will get the call tonight. In the first game he gave up three goals on 24 shots in a 3-2 loss to the Montreal Canadiens. He is in his first season with the Maple Leafs, signing a three-year deal with the club, and last season with the Florida Panthers, he was 27-23-1 with a GAA of 3.06 and a save percentage of .875.

Maple Leafs vs. Senators Prediction: Maple Leafs ML -125

The Maple Leafs come into this game with confidence, as they not only beat the Senators twice in the preseason, but they are coming off their first win of the season. They have played solid defense so far this season, giving up five goals in two games, and that is a strong start for a team that ranked second-to-last in the NHL in goals allowed per game last season (3.60).

Even with Toronto's major player overhaul, it looks like they are gelling quickly. They will ride the momentum from the last win and the two preseason wins over Ottawa to win this game on home ice.

More Maple Leafs vs. Senators Picks, Props and Best Bets

Here are some solid prop bets from top Canadian sportsbooks that we think offer good value.

Tim Stutzle Over 0.5 assists: (-105, Betway) – Last season, Stutzle led the Senators with 49 assists.
William Nylander to score a goal: (+190, Bet365) – Nylander led the Maple Leafs in goals last season and scored two in the season-opening loss.
Race to 2 goals Maple Leafs: (-116, Beway) – The Maple Leafs will get to 2 goals first facing an Ottawa team they scored 10 goals against in the two preseason games.

If you want more info about prop betting check out our prop betting guide.