Maple Leafs vs. Islanders Prediction, Odds and Props for Sept. 30: Toronto W

Written By Jason Green | Published at September 30, 2026

Islanders vs. Maple Leafs prediction for Eastern Conference matchup. The Leafs lost their season opener and this is the first game for the Islanders. — Apr 8, 2026; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Maple Leafs right wing William Nylander (88) skates with the puck against the Washington Capitals during the first period at Scotiabank Arena. Mandatory Credit: Nick Turchiaro-Imagn Images

The Maple Leafs lost their season opener at home and are back on home ice to face the New York Islanders, who are playing in their first game of the season. Let’s break down this Islanders vs. Maple Leafs prediction, covering betting trends, the latest odds, key stats, and some value prop bets we have found.

Toronto opened the season at home, losing to the Montreal Canadiens 3-2. William Nylander led the team in goals last season and scored both in the first game, with four players notching an assist. In his first start for Toronto, Sergei Bobrovsky gave up three goals on 24 shots.

Last season, the Islanders had the fifth-fewest points in the Eastern Conference and missed the playoffs. The team ranked 24th in goals per game and was one of the worst teams, with the extra man ranking 30th in power-play goals.

The defense is there for the Islanders, ranking fifth in opponents’ goals per game last season, led by goalie Ilya Sorokin, who came in second last season in the voting for the Vezina Trophy. They also have defenseman Matthew Schaefer, who won the Calder Trophy unanimously as rookie of the year. The attack is the issue, and the team did not do much to address that need in the off-season besides signing Matias Maccelli to a one-year contract after scoring 17 goals with Toronto last season.

Maple Leafs vs. Islanders Odds

Here are the Maple Leafs vs. Islanders odds for Wednesday night's matchup at Betway Sportsbook.

Moneyline: Maple Leafs (-125) / Islanders (+105)
Total (Over/Under): Over 5.5 goals (-140) / Under 5.5 goals (+110)
Puck Line: Maple Leafs -1.5 goals (+185) / Islanders +1.5 goals (-235)

The Maple Leafs are the slight favorites in this game at -125. You can bet $125 on the favored Maple Leafs to win $100 in profit or bet $100 on the underdog Islanders to profit $105.

Our moneyline betting guide has more information on the most popular NHL bet.

Toronto Maple Leafs Betting Trends

The Maple Leafs had an Over/Under record of 45-31-6 last season.
The Leafs had a puck line record of 34-48.
Last season, they were 18-15-8 at home.

In the Maple Leafs opener, the total went Under, and they lost despite being the favorites (-115).

New York Islanders Betting Trends

The Islanders were 39-43-0 on the puck line in 2025-26.
Last season, the Islanders had an Over/Under record of 37-43-2.
The Islanders were 21-17-3 on the road last season.
The Islanders won all three games against the Maple Leafs.

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Key Stats (Last season)

Islanders

Goals per game: 24th
Goals against per game: 5th

Maple Leafs

Goals per game: 16th
Goals against per game: 31st

Probable Starting Goalies

Islanders

Top netminder Ilya Sorokin will start between the pipes tonight; last season he went 29-24-2 with a GAA of 2.68 and a save percentage of .906. He started two games against Toronto last season, giving up four goals in two wins.

Maple Leafs

Sergei Bobrovsky got the start in the last game, but the Maple Leafs played last night, so backup Anthony Stolarz will likely get the start against the Islanders. Last season, he went 10-10-3 with a GAA of 3.28 and an .893 save percentage.

Islanders vs. Maple Leafs Prediction: Maple Leafs ML (-125)

The Maple Leafs lost their season opener last night to a solid Montreal team that made the Eastern Conference finals last season. The Islanders are playing in their first game, and while they have the pieces for a solid defensive team, the attack is the main issue. Bo Horvat led the team with only 31 goals last season, and it was a little surprising that New York didn't do more in the off-season to bolster their attack.

I see this as a lower-scoring game, but I'm staying away from the Under, since two of the three games these teams played last season went Over. Even playing last night, all of the ice time the Maple Leafs get is positive with all the new players. This game will be like their last one, but they will come out on top, as Toronto notches their first win of the season.

As of early Wednesday, 78% of the public betting money has backed the Maple Leafs.

More Islanders vs. Maple Leafs Picks, Props and Best Bets

Here are some solid prop bets from the top Canadian sportsbooks that we think have good value.

Bo Horvat Over 0.5 goals: (+185, Betway) – Horvat led the Islanders in goals last season and will face a Toronto team that gave up three goals in the opener and ranked 31st in GAA last season.
William Nylander to score a goal: (+150, Sports Interaction) – Pretty good odds for Nylander, who scored both of the goals in the season opener and led Toronto in goals last season.
Islanders Under 2.5 goals: (+114, Sports Interaction) – The Islanders ranked 24th in the league last season in goals per game and have big question marks about their attack heading into the season.

Our prop betting guide can give you some key info on this popular betting market.