Canadiens vs. Maple Leafs Prediction, Odds and Props for Sept. 29: Montreal W

Written By Jason Green | Published at September 29, 2026

Canadiens vs. Maple Leafs for first games for both teams. Last season the Canadiens won three of four games against the Maple Leafs. — Sep 19, 2026; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Maple Leafs forward Matthew Knies (23) looks for a pass as he leads forward Auston Matthews (34) up ice against the Montreal Canadiens in the third period at Scotiabank Arena. Mandatory Credit: Dan Hamilton-Imagn Images

In the season opener for both teams, the Toronto Maple Leafs host the Montreal Canadiens in an Atlantic Division matchup. In this extensive Canadiens vs. Maple Leafs prediction, we cover the latest odds, game info, key stats, betting trends, and prop bets we think have solid value.

Last season was not a good one for the Maple Leafs, as they had the second-fewest points in the Eastern Conference. They shook it all up in the offseason, adding many new players, including goalie Sergei Bobrovsky and winger Kirill Marchenko, whom they signed to a 6-year, $75 million extension.

Toronto also got a little luck when they won the first pick in the draft and selected forward Gavin McKenna. The team has a new head coach, Jim Hiller, and while it has had a major overhaul and has a lot of new talent, chemistry is a big issue. The team also needs star Auston Matthews to stay healthy after missing 22 games last season. Hiller’s main goal should be to fix a defence that ranked second-to-last in goals allowed per game last season.

The Canadiens finished with the fourth most points in the East last season and made a run to the Eastern Conference finals. They look to build on that solid run, and it helps to have what is, perhaps, the top No. 1 line in hockey: Nick Suzuki, Cole Caufield, and Juraj Slafkovsky.

Montreal also has a couple of young and solid goalies in Jakub Dobes and Jacob Fowler. The team is ascending, and expectations are high for the Habs.

Canadiens vs. Maple Leafs Odds

Here are the odds for the NHL season opener on Tuesday night at bet365 Sportsbook.

Moneyline: Maple Leafs (-110) / Canadiens (-110)
Total (Over/Under): Over 6.5 goals (+100) / Under 5.5 goals (-120)
Puck Line: Maple Leafs +1.5 goals (-270) / Canadiens -1.5 goals (+220)

Oddsmakers see this as a dead-even game with both teams at -110. A $110 moneyline bet on either team would net $100 in profit.

Our moneyline betting guide has more information on the most popular NHL bet type.

Montreal Canadiens Betting Trends

Last season, the Canadiens lost to the eventual Stanley Cup champion Carolina Hurricanes in five games in the Eastern Conference finals.
Montreal had an Over/Under record of 51-46-4.
The Habs had a puck line record of 60-41-0.
They were 24-9-8 on the road.

Montreal was 2-2 in the preseason, with both wins coming against the Maple Leafs in a pair of split-squad games. Last season, they lost their season opener to Toronto but then won the remaining three games against them.

Toronto Maple Leafs Betting Trends

Last season, the Maple Leafs had an Over/Under record of 45-31-6.
They had a puck line record of 34-48.
The Leafs were 18-15-8 at home in 2025-26.

Toronto was also 2-2 in preseason split-squad games, beating the Ottawa Senators twice and losing twice to the Canadiens.

Key Stats (Last season)

Canadiens

Goals per game: 7th
Goals against per game: 16th

Maple Leafs

Goals per game: 16th
Goals against per game: 31st

Probable Starting Goalies

Canadiens

Jakub Dobes enters the season as the No. 1 netminder after taking that away from Sam Montembeault midway through last season. Last season, Dobes was 29-10-4, with a GAA of 2.78 and a save percentage of .901. He started all 19 playoff games for Montreal last season, signed a three-year extension in the off-season, and a lot will be expected of him in between the pipes.

Maple Leafs

The Maple Leafs used five goalies last season, and they hope signing Sergei Bobrovsky can solidify their play in goal. Last season he was 27-23-1, with a GAA of 3.07 and a save percentage of .877 with the Florida Panthers. He was one of the main reasons the Panthers won two straight Stanley Cups in the two seasons before last, with his GAA under 2.45 in each.

Get ahead of the competition with betting bonuses and promotions at Canadian sportsbooks.

Canadiens vs. Maple Leafs Prediction: Canadiens -110

While the Maple Leafs made some solid offseason additions, the shortened preseason will hurt the team that made a major overhaul. They have more talent than last season, but without playing together, it may take time for the team to gel.

The Canadiens had a solid season last year and lost in the Eastern Conference finals. They have a good team on both sides of the ice and one of the top lines in the NHL. They will come out and play well in the opener, and while the new-look Leafs will put up a fight, Montreal will get the win.

After making the Eastern Conference finals last season, most top Canadian sportsbooks only have them with around the 10th-best odds to win the Stanley Cup.

More Canadiens vs. Maple Leafs Picks, Props and Best Bets

Here are some solid prop bets from the top Canadian sportsbooks that we think have good value.

Cole Caufield 1+ goals: (+140, Bet365) – Last season, Caufield had the second most goals in the NHL (51).
Auston Matthews Over 0.5 points: (+118, Sports Interaction) – In 60 games last season, Matthews averaged just under a point a game and will get one tonight.
Both teams to score 2+ goals: (-110, Sports Interaction) – Both of these teams will score two goals in this game, and in the two preseason games they totaled 11 goals.

If you are new to prop bets, learn more about them in our prop betting guide.