Blue Jays vs. Phillies Prediction, Odds and Picks: Expect a Pitchers' Duel

On Friday night in the City of Brotherly Love, the Blue Jays begin an interleague series against the Philadelphia Phillies. We have all of the key info for this game, along with our picks, and a Blue Jays vs. Phillies prediction.

The Blue Jays (54-62) have been flipping wins and losses in the last few games and are coming off a loss to the Chicago Cubs in a makeup game from June. Toronto is still in the playoff hunt, even in the basement of the AL East, 3.5 games out of the final Wild Card spot.

The Phillies (62-54) are coming off a win and have won five of their last six games. Philly is in second place in the NL East, 8.5 games behind the Atlanta Braves and in a National League Wild Card spot.

Canadian sportsbooks have the Phillies as big favorites in the series opener, posted at -220 with the Blue Jays at +180 and a total of 8 runs.

Blue Jays Give One Away

In their last game, the Blue Jays lost 3-2 to the Chicago Cubs in 11 innings after giving up a two-run homer with two outs in the ninth inning. They eventually gave Chicago a run in the 11th inning on a throwing error. Alejandro Kirk had an RBI for Toronto, and they scored their other run on a disengagement violation.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (.259, 6 home runs, 44 RBIs) has missed the last two games with a hamstring injury and is listed as day-to-day.

Toronto ranks last in the Majors in runs scored, and on their current road trip (2-2), they have averaged only three runs per game.

Kazuma Okamoto (.229, 24 home runs, 70 RBIs) is batting .190 in five games this month with no home runs, no RBIs, and eight strikeouts.

Blue Jays’ Starter for Series Opener 

Jose Soriano (9-6, 3.29 ERA, 1.25 WHIP) makes his first start for Toronto after coming over in a trade with the Los Angeles Angels. He gave up a total of three runs in 12 innings in his last two starts and has not given up more than three runs over his last five starts. This is Soriano’s first start of the season against the Phillies, and he faced them once last year, giving up two runs in seven innings. On the season, he has gone 123 1/3 innings with 127 strikeouts and 57 walks.

Phillies’ Pitching Getting It Done, For the Most Part 

In winning five of their last six games, the Phillies allowed only six runs, including three shutouts. They surrendered 10 runs in the one loss.

In Philly’s last game, a 7-3 home win over the Washington Nationals, Cristopher Sanchez became the first 15-game winner. The team registered 16 hits in the game, and seven players had one RBI.

Kyle Schwarber (.243, 33 home runs, 64 RBIs) ranks tied for second in the Majors in home runs. He had two hits and an RBI in the last game, but hasn't gone yard in the last 15. Bryce Harper (.255, 24 home runs, 68 RBIs) had two hits and an RBI in the last game and has two home runs and four RBIs over the last four games.

Phillies’ Starter for Series Opener 

Zack Wheeler (10-2, 2.49 ERA, 0.91 WHIP) takes the hill for the Phillies. They had lost two straight with him on the hill before his last start, when he didn't give up any runs in two innings of a rain-shortened 8-0 win over the Baltimore Orioles. He has not given up more than one run in three of his last five starts. On the season, he has totaled 105 innings, striking out 126 and walking only 23. Wheeler faced the Blue Jays on the road on June 10 and gave up one run in six innings of a 3-2 loss.

Blue Jays vs. Phillies Prediction

Phillies Run Line -1.5 runs (-102)

I'm tempted to take a flyer on the Blue Jays since the Phillies have not seen Soriano this season, but Wheeler has been solid all year, had a good outing against Toronto in June, and would rank sixth in the Majors in ERA if he has enough innings to qualify. Earlier this season at home, the Blue Jays lost two of three games to Philadelphia.

Philly is the hotter team at home, and while I do not see a rout, the Phillies will win by at least two runs, which they have done in each of their last five victories. So, take the -102 run line at Sports Interaction to get better odds.

Under 8 runs (-115) 

The total went Under for the Blue Jays' last game and Under when Wheeler faced them earlier this season. There is a solid pitching matchup in this one with Wheeler and Soriano, who will both have good outings. Toronto has only averaged three runs over their last four games as well. Take the Under in this series opener, which will be a lower-scoring affair.