Blue Jays vs. Astros Prediction, Odds and Picks: Take Red-Hot Houston

On Wednesday afternoon in the Lone Star State, it’s the rubber match of an American League series with the Houston Astros hosting the Toronto Blue Jays. Toronto won the opener, with Houston winning the second game, and we have you covered with a Blue Jays vs. Astros prediction for the series finale.

The Blue Jays (53-61) have lost two of their last three games after winning three in a row. This is the last game between these teams this season, and the Astros (59-56) have taken three of five games against the Jays. Houston is hot, winners of seven of their last eight games and have scored at least seven runs in half of them.

bet365 Sportsbook has the Astros as the home favorites, posted at -240 with the Blue Jays at +210, and the total set at 8 runs.

Game 2 Recap 

In the second game of the series on Tuesday, the Astros beat the Blue Jays 7-2. For Houston, Taylor Tremmell hit a three-run homer, and Jose Altuve was 3-for-4 with two RBIs. For Toronto, Myles Straw had an RBI triple, with their second run scored on a wild pitch.

Blue Jays Still Have a Playoff Chance 

While the Blue Jays are eight games under .500 and in the basement of the AL East, they still have a chance to make the playoffs. Even after having the fourth fewest wins in the AL, they are still only four games out of the last Wild Card spot.

This season’s Toronto team is a far cry from last season’s club that came one win away from winning the World Series. The main reason for the decline has been at the dish, as last season they ranked a legit fourth in the Majors in runs scored and this season rank dead last.

30-year-old rookie Kazuma Okamoto (.229, 24 home runs, 69 RBIs) is the lone player with over 12 home runs and 44 RBIs. Last season, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and George Springer combined for 55 home runs and 168 RBIs; this season, they have combined for only 18 home runs and 80 RBIs.

Blue Jays Starter for Series Finale 

Jameson Taillon (2-6, 5.92 ERA, 1.36 WHIP) makes his first start for the Blue Jays after being traded for a player to be named later or cash considerations from the Chicago Cubs. He has not started since July 26, when he gave up seven runs in four innings, and in his last two starts has allowed 11 runs in 8 1/3 innings.

Tallon made a home start against the Astros on May 22, giving up four runs on eight hits in 4 2/3 innings of a 4-2 Chicago loss. This season, he has 68 strikeouts and 27 walks in 76 innings. He has had issues with the long ball, giving up 25 home runs and has given up five over his last two starts.

Astros Take Over First Place in AL West 

The red-hot Astros have overtaken the Texas Rangers in the AL West, now leading them by 2.5 games after Texas dropped six of their last seven.

While Houston only ranks 25th in team ERA, they rank eighth in runs scored. They have six players with at least 12 home runs and are led by Yordan Alvarez (.329, 35 home runs, 84 RBIs), who leads baseball in batting average and home runs, and ranks third in RBIs. Online sportsbooks have Alvarez as the major favorite to win the AL MVP at around -900.

Astros Starter for Finale 

Hunter Brown (3-1, 3.42 ERA, 1.29 WHIP) takes the hill for Houston, and they have won his last two starts, in which he gave up two runs in 12 2/3 innings. He missed more than two months early in the season with a shoulder injury and has pitched 52.3 innings with 55 strikeouts and 30 walks.

Brown faced the Blue Jays north of the border on June 23 in his second start coming off the injured list and gave up one run on four hits in three innings of a 4-2 Houston loss.

Blue Jays vs. Astros Predictions 

Astros ML (-169, DraftKings) 

The Astros are surging, winners of seven of their last eight games, and are atop the AL West while the Blue Jays are in the basement of the AL East. The pitching matchup greatly favors Houston, as Brown has been solid in his last two starts while Taillon was designated for assignment before being traded to Toronto.

Add to the fact that the Astros have a much better lineup, and Toronto is five games under .500 on the road, so it all points to Houston taking the series finale.

Over 8 runs (-120) 

The total has gone Over in five of the last six games for the Astros, and they have averaged 5.9 runs over their last eight contests. Like yesterday’s game, they will be solid at the dish again facing Taillon, who gave up seven runs in his last outing.

Toronto will not cross the plate many times, but Houston will, which is why the Over is the pick.