Alberta Independence Referendum Fails; Province Will Remain Part of Canada

Alberta bettors won’t have to worry about a change in provincial law anytime soon, given the overwhelming result of the Alberta independence referendum.

With roughly 75% of the vote counted, "Remain" held a lead of 76% to 24% over the separatist movement. The lead was both too great for the separatists to overcome and didn’t appear to be changing as the votes continued to come in.

Although the Alberta independence referendum was non-binding, its defeat puts the issue to bed. Premier Danielle Smith said she would respect the election results either way, suggesting Alberta will not pursue further attempts to separate from Canada.

That means Alberta bettors will continue their current gaming situation without interruption. It also likely paves the way for greater cooperation with Ontario, as the two provinces can no longer separate.

Why Did the Alberta Independence Referendum Take Place?

Alberta’s frustrations with Ottawa have grown in recent years over two main issues. COVID restrictions angered the western province, considered Canada’s most conservative. Following the United States’ election of Donald Trump as president in 2024, tensions in Alberta increased as Trump openly floated the idea of annexing Canada.

That idea never went anywhere. But American conservatives talked more seriously about annexing Alberta to the United States. As home to one of the world's five largest oil reserves, Alberta was seen as a valuable part of whichever country it belonged to. With that in mind, the province’s separatists saw this as the ideal time to hold an Albertan independence referendum.

Polls showed support for Albertan independence at around 24%, right in line with vote totals. Although that was nowhere near enough to win, Smith said it was “too high for (her) liking.” Smith said on Oct. 20 that she was pleased with the vote, and planned to address the province that evening.

Why Did the Alberta Independence Referendum Fail?

Despite the separatist movement seizing on American conservatives' rhetoric, that might have capped its chances. Trump’s bombastic claims about a 51st state allowed Canadian prime minister Mark Carney to appeal to national pride. He's used that to his advantage multiple times in office.

Carney also enjoys higher favorability ratings in Alberta than his predecessor, Justin Trudeau. While Trudeau has lived his entire life in Ottawa, Carney grew up in Edmonton. He has used his experience to run a more favorable administration in his home province than Trudeau did, and Albertans have responded warmly to his leadership.

Finally, although Alberta is Canada's most conservative province, it still sits far to the left of most American states. By Canadian standards, Alberta aligns more with states like Washington and Oregon. Those states consistently vote Democratic in American elections. The prospect of aligning with the United States might have made voters uneasy about pursuing separation.

For most Albertans, this result is the best of both worlds: it sent a message to Ottawa without risking a break from Canada.

How Are Bettors in Alberta Affected?

Online poker players will feel the biggest effects. With the Alberta independence referendum defeated, Alberta can more easily work toward shared liquidity with Ontario.

Although it might have been easier for the Alberta Gaming, Liquor and Cannabis Commission to set its own rules without Ottawa’s input, that wouldn’t have helped it reach an agreement with Ontario. Alberta still would have had to work with Ontario’s gaming laws. The prospect of a possible separation from Canada could have made that process far more complex.

Now, bettors in Alberta can likely look forward to closer ties with Ontario. That should help increase poker options in Alberta. Shared liquidity with Ontario would increase the player pool from a potential of 5 million people to around 21 million.