With the PGA Championship next week, the AT&T Byron Nelson is the last chance for players to qualify for the second major championship of the year. Many players prefer prepping for a major outside of a tournament atmosphere, so it’s no surprise we only got two players in the top 20 of the world in the field this week. But after three tumultuous rounds at TPC Craig Ranch, the Byron Nelson odds board shows that the cream has once again risen to the top with 18 holes to play. While the leaderboard has three unexpected names at the top, the three biggest names in the field are lurking just behind and ready to pounce on Sunday.
Tournament Recap Through First Three Rounds
TPC Craig Ranch is in its third year as the host of the AT&T Byron Nelson, and it is quickly establishing itself as one of the easiest venues on the PGA TOUR. K.H. Lee came out on top the first two years at 26 under and 25 under. While it has once again played easy this week, it doesn’t look like the winner will get to that number. That’s thanks in some part to Scottie Scheffler. The World No. 2 and highest ranked player in the field held the 36-hole lead at 14 under but finally found some resistance on Saturday. He fired an even-par 71 and now finds himself two shots back in a tie for fourth.
Inexperience at the top through 54 holes
Three unexpected players share the lead through 54 holes. Austin Eckroat and Zecheng Dou are the most surprising ones. Both sit outside of the Playoffs currently in FedExCup points. Dou is in comfortable space, though, as TPC Craig Ranch is his home course and a place he likely goes low at often in his practice. They are joined by veteran and local favorite, Ryan Palmer. Palmer hasn’t won an individual event since the 2010 Sony Open, and he’s spoken extensively about how much winning his home tournament would mean to him.
Eckroat and Dou will fight the popular agenda that it’s never easy to go low again after a remarkable round the day before. Eckroat shot the round of the day on Saturday with a 63, while Dou was right behind him with a 64.
Behind them is a host of capable names within striking distance. Jason Day, a former Bryon Nelson winner and one of the hotter players on the planet, shot a 66 on Saturday to join Scheffler at 14 under and two shots behind. Talented rookie Vincent Norrman also sits at two shots behind along with Si Woo Kim — one of the more accomplished players in this field. Tyrrell Hatton is at 13 under and three shots behind as the second highest ranked player in the field.
All in all, with such a packed leaderboard on a course that has already given up a 60 this week, it’s anyone’s game near the top. Whoever wins will absolutely have to go low and make a ton of birdies to earn a victory on Sunday for great PGA Championship prep.
Final Round PGA TOUR Golf Bets To Consider
Winner: Jason Day
Best Odds Still Available:
It’s one of those weeks where I’m sticking with a couple of the guys I already backed before the tournament started. The good thing here is both players still show enough value on the Bryon Nelson odds board to suggest doubling down. Jason Day is arguably the second best player in this field with his fantastic results of 2023. He delivered in the first round with a great 64 to put himself in contention. The putter went ice cold on Friday and seemed to have maybe knocked him back out of contention, but Scheffler’s poor Saturday put him right back in it.
The interesting thing with Day is he’s yet to really put it all together in a single round this week. On Thursday, his short game struggled. On Friday, his putter struggled, and on Saturday, his irons weren’t great. Considering all facets of Day’s game are clicking this year, it’s easy to believe he can catch fire on Sunday and win his first title since 2018.
Day is motivated to get back in the winner’s circle, and I’d have to think he believes he can win a major next week at Oak Hill, a place he finished 8th at in 2013. None of the three guys in front of Day are in great form or have any experience with the lead as of late. Day should feel great about catching them quickly and using his experience to once again win the AT&T Byron Nelson. He sits ninth in Strokes Gained: Approach for the week along with a respectable 25th Off the Tee and 32nd in Putting. He still holds plenty of value with this number.
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Winner/Top-Five Finish: Vincent Norrman
Best Odds Still Available: , +210
Vincent Norrman is the other man I backed before the week and still has a great chance to win. Norrman was even par through eight holes on Thursday, but he’s been one of the best on the course since as he’s charged with a 66 and 65 in the last two rounds. The Swede has been in good form as of late, and the rookie has the talent and explosiveness to win a birdie fest like this.
Norrman was second in the field off the tee on Saturday, and it’s that power with the driver that makes him a great choice to charge tomorrow and win his first tournament on the PGA TOUR. He also has two eagles on the week … the most in the field, which could propel him to the top of the leaderboard quickly. Perhaps most importantly, Norrman’s putter, which has been bad for most of the year, seems to really be catching fire as of late. He’s third in Putts per GIR this week. These are same great odds for someone right in it, and I also like adding a Top-Five bet with it at plus-odds in case one of the horses are too much to catch.
Top-10 Finish: Patton Kizzire
Best Odds Still Available: +140
Patton Kizzire is my favorite top 10 play on the Bryon Nelson odds board currently as the veteran seems to be hitting it very nicely in Dallas this week. Kizzire has long been his most effective at tournaments that require a ton of birdies, and that’s again been the case this week at TPC Craig Ranch. The Alabama product has fought through some struggles this year, but the irons are clicking this week. He’s third in the field, gaining 5.94 strokes on approach through three rounds.
Kizzire has made 15 birdies on the week with just two bogeys, good for second least in the field. Most encouraging for him is he’s 35th in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, which can be the area he struggles the most in. On the other end of it, Kizzire has gained just 0.1 strokes on the greens this week, which is an area throughout his career that he’s caught absolute fire in. If he can get that flat stick going on Sunday, Kizzire, who sits T8 currently, should have no issue maintaining his position and logging a key top 10.
Byron Nelson Odds
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