PGA Tour Odds: 2024 Butterfield Bermuda Championship Preview at Port Royal Golf Course

Bermuda, best known for its grass, shorts, and triangles, is the next stop on the “International” swing during the fall series as the field heads to Port Royal Golf Course for the Butterfield Bermuda Championship. Let’s run through key course info and odds for the 2024 Butterfield Bermuda Championship.

Handicapping PGA Tour odds in a weaker field will be a challenge this week. At the least, it’s a beautiful setting, right on Bermuda’s coastline, with views of the Atlantic horizon throughout. This tournament has proven to be one of the most weather-impacted of any on tour. It is one of the few instances per year where I’ve found myself practicing patience with my betting card construction. As of this Monday, the forecast in Bermuda calls for thunderstorms and winds as high as 20-25 mph from Thursday to Sunday.

When winds are down, this is a short course that has rewarded the plodders in the field. But when the winds kick up, the bombers have been able to find separation from the field. That, in short, explains how players like Brian Gay and Brendon Todd, as well as Lucas Herbert and Taylor Pendrith, have each enjoyed success at this event despite being opposite player types. The field strength is lacking once again. But somebody has to win. So let’s get into the key facts and info about Port Royal GC before betting Bermuda Championship odds.

BUTTERFIELD BERMUDA CHAMPIONSHIP ODDS: THE FAVORITES

Here are the favorites for Butterfield Bermuda Championship golf odds. Scroll to the bottom of this post to compare odds for the entire field at betting sites in your state. And don’t forget to lock in the best sportsbook promo codes before making any wagers.

BUTTERFIELD BERMUDA CHAMPIONSHIP ODDS: FIELD AT A GLANCE

Last year, the Butterfield Bermuda Championship drew the weakest Official World Golf Ranking field rating of any primary PGA Tour event that did not run opposite another. That was influenced in part by some weather-related travel complications. But in any case, this year’s event looks just as uninspired.

The field of 120 players is “highlighted” by Lucas Glover as the top-rated player in terms of OWGR (No. 48). He’s joined by Nick Taylor, Mackenzie Hughes, Maverick McNealy, Kevin Yu, and Ben Griffin as the six OWGR top-75 players in the Butterfield Bermuda Championship field. Lacking any sort of intimidating star power, this event truly has a wide-open feel to it.

Defending champion Camillo Villegas is back to chase a repeat. He’ll be joined by Seamus Power and Brendon Todd to represent the list of past champions in the field. The Mayor of Bermuda himself, Brian Gay, is a surprise no-show this week despite a Bermuda Championship resume that includes a win and three other top-15 finishes over five prior appearances.

INTRODUCTION TO PORT ROYAL GC

Port Royal Golf Course is a Robert Trent Jones-designed public course in Southampton, Bermuda. It was founded in 1965, underwent renovation in 2009, and has been on the PGA Tour schedule since 2020. In its first year, the Bermuda Championship ran opposite the WGC-HSBC China event. But in the ensuing three years as a primary event, it has still struggled to attract a formidable field.

The elements will always play a significant factor in determining a winner at the Bermuda Championship. In 2023, Taylor Pendrith gave up a sizable lead on Sunday, playing through afternoon rain and wind that eventually forced a temporary stoppage. So, while the scorecard yardage and hole layouts may not look intimidating, the ability to flight tee shots and approaches through the wind and navigate steep elevation changes are unique skill sets needed at Port Royal GC.

How It Breaks Down

At 6,828 yards, Port Royal GC is the shortest par-71 on tour and the second shortest overall behind only TPC River Highlands. It has produced consistent results from short-course specialists like Brendon Todd, Brian Gay, and Ryan Armour. With that said, we’ve also seen an advantage to bombers when the elements pick up, given the persistence of headwinds on this highly exposed coastal setup.

There is not much hidden yardage in this course. All three par-5s are under 555 yards, six par-4s measure under 400 yards, and only one par-4 measures above 450 yards. With that said, the wind will make this course play more difficult than the scorecard yardage would suggest, and only eight holes have a scoring average under par.

With this course sitting outside the continental United States, we do not have the luxury of strokes gained data to draw conclusive trends. However, the basic stats available can still paint a helpful picture. Driving accuracy has fallen below 55% in each of the first five years played at this event, down significantly from the tour average of 65%. That is a factor of the narrow fairways, but more likely a result of high winds blowing tee shots off course. The 2-inch Zoysia rough isn’t imposing enough of a penalty for players to actively club down for accuracy. Greens in regulation percentage is also down by about 5% compared to the tour average, which we can assume is caused by a combination of the high winds and weak fields.

Average driving distance was well above the tour average at the 2020 Bermuda Championship and well below average in 2021, 2022, and 2023. That is a direct correlation with the severity of the wind. So if the forecast holds, a weather-impacted event should penalize the shorter hitters and reward the bombers.

PORT ROYAL GOLF COURSE SPECS

• Yards: 6,828
• Par: 71 (4x 3’s / 11x 4’s / 3x 5’s)
• Greens: Bermuda
• Architect: Robert Trent Jones
• Historical cut line: Even
• Comp courses: PGA National, Pebble Beach, Corales GC, Coco Beach, El Camaleon, Sea Island GC, Waialae CC
• Past winners: Camilo Villegas -24 (’23), Seamus Power -19 (’23) Lucas Herbert -15 (’22), Brian Gay -15 (’21), Brendon Todd -24 (’20)

COURSE HISTORY AND COURSE COMPS

Looking at total course history over the first five years, the top 10 at Port Royal in this field are Justin Lower, Brendon Todd, Seamus Power, Alex Smalley, Kevin Yu, Peter Malnati, Carl Yuan, Ben Griffin, Chesson Hadley, and Ryan Moore. It’s hard to draw any strong trends from that group. But it does seem to predominantly favor players who are strong Bermuda putters and good ball-strikers in windy, coastal conditions.

Course Comps

I won’t be putting as heavy of an emphasis on comp course history this week as I normally would, given the drastic influence of the weather and unique importance of driving distance for a 6,900-yard course. We are also without the aid of strokes gained data from past events at Port Royal GC. So the perceived important characteristics at this event are less objective.

With all of that said, I lean toward PGA National, host of the Honda Classic, as the top overall comp to Port Royal GC. Both courses are played on Bermuda greens, have been exposed to high winds and rain, and reward driving distance despite the lack of overall scorecard yardage.

PGA National aside, Pebble Beach, Corales GC, Coco Beach, El Camaleon, Sea Island GC, and Waialae CC all share coastal layouts, heavily influenced by the wind on similar agronomy and similar strengths of field. Though significantly longer on the scorecard, last week’s World Wide Technology Championship should serve as a good barometer for players in good recent form who can execute flighted approaches against gusting coastal winds.

Combine performance across this list, and the top 10 players in comp course history here are Daniel Berger, Taylor Montgomery, Brandon Wu, Nick Taylor, Cameron Champ, Dylan Wu, Lucas Glover, SH Kim, Matt NeSmith, and Will Gordon.

KEY STATS TO CONSIDER BEFORE BETTING PGA TOUR ODDS

• SG: T2G (Recent Form)
• Driving distance
• Good drives gained / driving accuracy
• SG: APP / SG: Ball striking
• SG: ARG
• SG: TOT (high winds)
• Par-3 scoring
• SG: P (L36, Bermuda)
• Course and comp course history

Looking at the list of top-performing players at this event over its first three years, the ideal formula would seem to include above-average ranks in SG: T2G, SG: Ball striking, SG: TOT (high winds), comp course history, and SG: P (Bermuda). Nine players who fit that criteria: Daniel Berger, Ben Griffin, Jhonattan Vegas, Seamus Power, Maverick McNealy, Andrew Putnam, Nick Hardy, Ben Kohles, and Kevin Yu.

PLAYER SPOTLIGHT: Matthias Schmid

It’s been a resurgent fall swing for the young German. Matthias Schmid has quickly piled up three top-16 finishes over his last four starts. As a young, tall, up-and-coming international bomber with elite putting upside, it’s easy to find similarities between Schmid’s game and the 2021 Bermuda Championship winner, Lucas Herbert.

Of course, a 6,828-yard setup does not exactly scream the need for bombing off the tee. However, that scorecard yardage can be misleading when hitting into 20+ mph headwinds. Port Royal sits unobstructed along Bermuda’s coastline. With high winds currently in the forecast, I find myself leaning toward players with a little extra distance to withstand the elements.

When winds are down, Port Royal GC is otherwise defenseless. It should cater to the best putters in the field to separate. In that regard, Schmid ranks in the top 20 in both SG: Putting (L36) and SG: Putting (Bermuda). Contending recently with top-five finishes at both the Black Desert Championship and Shriners Children’s Open, Schmid gets the chance this week to parlay that recent hot form and course fit into his first career PGA Tour win.

2024 Butterfield bermuda championship: PLAYER POOL AND MODEL RESULTS

With all the course-fit profiles in mind, I’m leaning early toward the below player pool. Naturally, I’m looking their way in the PGA Tour odds as well. I’ve broken the list down by projected pricing/odds tier for DraftKings.

Model Breakdown

In my model, I’m emphasizing SG: T2G, SG: APP, SG: Ball striking, SG: P (L36 & Bermuda), and comp course history, followed by a more balanced mix of good drives gained, SG: TOT (high winds), SG: ARG & scrambling, and driving distance.

Model Favorites

Daniel Berger is the No. 1 man in my model this week. That makes sense on the merit of his long-term pedigree. And although he’s still regaining his footing since returning from injury, the signs of a comeback are growing. Berger finished T7 at the Sanderson Farms Championship three starts ago. He will come to Bermuda fresh off a T20 at last week’s World Wide Technology Championship.

After Berger, the rest of my model’s top 10 features Seamus Power, Jhonattan Vegas, Ben Griffin, Lucas Glover, Maverick McNealy, Mackenzie Hughes, Jacob Bridgeman, Andrew Novak, and Henrik Norlander.

When odds open on Monday, I’ll be looking to start a longer card around Ben Griffin, Mackenzie Hughes, and Matthias Schmid. However, I’ll likely wait to place my bets until further details on weather splits are released later in the week.

Check back in later this week for more updates, and best of luck betting Butterfield Bermuda Championship PGA Tour odds!

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COMPLETE PGA TOUR ODDS: BUTTERFIELD BERMUDA CHAMPIONSHIP

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