The Transformation Of Bills Super Bowl Odds: Buffalo Went From Favorites To Longshots And Back

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Written By Mo Nuwwarah | Last Updated
Buffalo Bills odds futures

If a person emerged from a three-month darkness retreat with Aaron Rodgers and took a look at Buffalo Bills Super Bowl odds, they wouldn’t think much of the number. +650 for a team that entered as one of the favorites and finished the season as the No. 2 seed in the AFC? “Seems pretty normal,” they might think.

In actuality, these Super Bowl 58 odds have gone through a 360-degree journey. A blown lead to the Eagles left them extreme underdogs to even make the playoffs after Week 12 at 6-6. But after ripping off five straight wins to end the season, the Bills are right back where they started: squarely in the championship hunt.

Let’s take a look at the evolution of Bills odds through the lens of AFC and Super Bowl odds at BetMGM Sportsbook.

How Bills Super Bowl Odds Fell To Longshot Status

Buffalo opened as the third favorite in Super Bowl markets (+900), tied with the 49ers behind the Chiefs and Eagles.

An early hiccup against the Jets had them a bit behind to start the season, but the Bills seemed to round into form quickly. They authored three straight dominant wins, including the destruction of a Miami team that had been blitzing the league.

Given the massive travel disadvantage, the subsequent loss to the Jaguars was understandable. All seemed well, with the Bills sitting at 4-2 and having a couple of easy games on tap.

The 3-4 stretch that followed produced almost nothing but troubling games. A Giants team that had been playing dreadful football nearly upset them as monster underdogs, falling short on a late red-zone possession to lose 14-9. Another huge underdog, the Patriots, did pull an upset. Cincinnati soundly outplayed them, and the Bills followed up by puking all over their cleats in a hideous loss to Denver.

Buffalo rebounded by mauling the Jets, but that game highlighted the Jets’ ineptitude on offense more than anything the Bills did.

Still, the market felt that the Bills would likely bounce back. At 6-5, Bills Super Bowl odds still hovered around the +1500 mark.

That changed in a hurry with the aforementioned Eagles game. Allen played like Superman for much of it (339 passing yards, 81 rushing yards, 4 TDs). But he threw an ugly late pick to James Bradberry that helped the Eagles get back in it and ultimately win in overtime.

Everybody Loves A Comeback Story

At 6-6, it looked like the season was all but over. Every pundit who could find a camera was busy declaring Bills futures dead, speculation surrounded Coach Sean McDermott’s job (especially after reports about his bizarre motivational speeches), and the markets looked ready to give up.

Bills Super Bowl markets crashed to as low as +4000 during their subsequent bye. AFC prices plummeted to +2000.

The results were poor, and injuries had left the defense a shell of its preseason self. Ace coverage LB Matt Milano had been lost for the season along with CB Tre’Davious White. Both star safeties, as had White’s backup, Christian Benford, had gotten banged up. Recent first-round CB Kaiir Elam played his way to the bench.

Odds to make the NFL playoffs had the Bills at +500 (~17% implied probability).

But, with public opinion at its nadir, the Bills seemed to come together. Out of the bye, they escaped with a close and fortunate win in Arrowhead, but any win in Arrowhead counts as strong (Super Bowl odds: +2000). They spanked the Cowboys (+1400), grinded out a couple of ugly ones (+900), and then soundly outplayed a solid Miami team on the road.

Suddenly, Bills futures are right back around where they started. Even better, actually, with the No. 2 seed locked up and home-field advantage against anyone not named Baltimore. Buffalo also drew a plum first-round game against a Steelers team with a -20 point differential.

Buffalo Bills Futures at BetMGM

DateSuper Bowl OddsAFC Championship Odds
Before Eagles Loss (Week 12)+2200+1200
After Eagles Loss (Week 13)+3500+1800
During Bye (Week 13)+4000+2000
After Chiefs Win (Week 14)+2000+1000
After Cowboys Win (Week 15)+1400+700
After Chargers Win (Week 16)+1200+500
After Patriots Win (Week 17)+900+400
Before Dolphins Win (Week 18)+800+350

Can Bills Futures Cash?

Certainly, the market likes their chances well enough now. The +650 price reflects roughly 13% implied probability, putting them in the hunt for a title. That’s the best number of any team without a playoff bye week (49ers and Ravens).

And after closing around -2.5 against Miami on the road, we can infer they’re likely favored over anyone but the 49ers and Ravens. Remember, the Cowboys were underdogs in the same spot.

No doubt, plenty of opportunistic bettors saw a possible rebound coming and bought low on the Bills. After all, they continued to post strong offensive metrics during their midseason downswing.

Perhaps the most fascinating part of handicapping their chances is figuring out what the late downturn of the Bills passing offense means. Even as the results turned around for the Bills, Josh Allen has not performed at his best. He produced meager passing numbers in several late games as the team leaned on its rushing attack and defense. Even the big final game against Miami saw Allen commit multiple ugly turnovers.

If Bills futures are to cash for longshot bettors who grabbed them north of 20-1, the passing attack has to regain its early season form. We’ve seen the best and worst of Allen in the playoffs the past two years. Buffalo fans and bettors are banking on the 2021-22 version showing up this January.

2024 Bills Player Stats

Last Updated on 01.08.2024
Player GP Games Played CMP% Completion Percentage YDS Passing Yards YDS/G Yards Per Game YDS/C Yards Per Completion TDS Passing Touchdowns INT Interceptions thrown RTG Passer Rating
Player GP Games Played INT Interceptions PD Passes Defended FF Fumbles Forced FR Fumbles Recovered SACK QB Sacks TOT Total Tackles SOLO Solo Tackles AST Assisted Tackles

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