Buffalo Bills Are Now Biggest Super Bowl Favorites In Years

Written By Brett Gibbons on October 18, 2022
bills super bowl odds

The Buffalo Bills (5-1) are atop Super Bowl 57 odds after taking down the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 6. Their current price of +275 is the shortest we’ve seen futures in the regular season since the Chiefs dropped to +200 in Week 13 of 2020. It is the shortest at this point of the season since the New England Patriots in 2019.

Last season, no team dropped below +400, which was where the Green Bay Packers stood in Week 18.

How did the previous teams fare for the remainder of the season? Below, we’ll look at those past Super Bowl odds and what the Bills’ path might look like for the rest of the season.

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Buffalo Bills Futures Odds: Super Bowl, AFC East

To make a bet, click on the odds in the table below.

How Did The Previous Favorites Fare?

2020 Kansas City Chiefs

We know this team was the runner-up to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers this season. What’s more notable was their season-long market movement. KC started at +450 to win Super Bowl 55 in Week 1 of the 2020 season, a number that never rose above +500 as they cruised to a 14-2 regular season record. Their stranglehold over the AFC was so dominant that no other team had shorter than +800 odds to win the Super Bowl.

But again, the Chiefs didn’t win it all.

2019 New England Patriots

An 8-0 start to the 2019 season pushed the Patriots all the way down to +160 to win Super Bowl 54. As Tom Brady & Co. split their remaining eight games 4-4– including marked losses to AFC contenders like the Ravens, Chiefs, and Texans– those odds lengthened to +800 by the time the regular season closed. New England was upset in the AFC Wild Card game by the Tennessee Titans, marking the last game Brady would play for them.

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The Market Vs. TheLines Staff Assessment

Of course, this year’s Bills aren’t either of the two previous teams. But those teams could serve as a warning against market overcorrection when it comes to Super Bowl betting.

According to TheLines staff’s NFL Power Rankings, the Bills, Chiefs, and Philadelphia Eagles stand apart from the rest of the league in a top tier. Five of our seven voters this week slotted Buffalo in the top spot with two others ranking Philly No. 1. But when it came to those three teams, they were all consensus top three. Our rankings slot teams for this week only and which we’d favor on a neutral field in Week 7.

Our team somewhat disagrees with the market’s no-doubt bullish outlook on the Bills at this point. Deserving Super Bowl favorites? Sure. Runaway champions? Perhaps not.

2022 Bills Super Bowl Outlook

It’s hard to find a category in which these Bills don’t succeed in. They’re second in explosive pass rate allowed while countering with the No. 1 dropback EPA mark in the NFL. To make Josh Allen’s cast of receivers even more dangerous, Gabe Davis is emerging as one of the top deep threats in the league, leading the league by far with a ridiculous 27.4 yards per reception.

Even in their one loss this season (Week 3 against the Dolphins), the Bills won time of possession and every yardage battle. It was the Dolphins’ ability to force the Bills into long and arduous drives that resulted in a lost fumble and missed field goal on just nine scoring opportunities.

While the tape is out there, it’s easier said than done.

Per FiveThirtyEight, the Bills are projected for 14 wins and lead the NFL with a 28% probability to win the Super Bowl. Their projections would slot the Bills right around +257, compared to their +275 current odds (implied 26.67% win rate).

Only six times in NFL history has the preseason favorite won the Super Bowl, the last being the 2018 Patriots. You’d have to go back to the 2016 season to find a team with odds as low as the Bills do now that went on to win it all (also the Patriots at +250).

Could the 2022 Bills be the next exception?

Super Bowl 57 Odds

Historical odds referenced courtesy of Sports Odds History

Brett Gibbons Avatar
Written by
Brett Gibbons

Brett is an avid sports traveler and former Division-I football recruiter for Bowling Green and Texas State. He’s a graduate of BGSU and works as an auditor for Google content curation products. He’s also contributed to Sports Illustrated and Fansided during his young writing career.

View all posts by Brett Gibbons