2023 Buffalo Bills Odds: Can Josh Allen Retain AFC East Throne?
After narrowly missing out on a possible Super Bowl berth in devastating fashion — although Cincinnati certainly has looked against them in recent years — the Bills entered 2022 as consensus Super Bowl favorites. A high-profile opening week destruction of the Rams and subsequent dominance in ensuing weeks only strengthened their case. Alas, they were never the same after Von Miller tore his ACL and Josh Allen injured his elbow. Cincinnati ultimately spanked them in Buffalo. Is 2023 the time to buy the post-hype dip on Buffalo Bills odds?
Since it’s only July, NFL win totals and Super Bowl odds will be the markets at hand. Click any of the odds below to place a wager at legal sports betting sites.
Notable Bills Offseason Moves
We’ll start with changes the Bills roster has undergone heading to the 2023 season. Keep in mind that minor moves will still occur. Useful veterans will become available following releases from other teams, and key injuries will crop up both to the Bills and their opponents. But, here’s where things stand as of early July.
- Key additions: G O’Cyrus Torrence, TE Dalton Kincaid, G Connor McGovern, EDGE Leonard Floyd, S Taylor Rapp, WR Trent Sherfield
- Key losses: RB Devin Singletary, LB Tremaine Edmunds, WR Isaiah McKenzie
Offensive Outlook
Few rosters will have a more familiar feel than that of the Bills heading into 2023. They’ve basically rolled it over on both sides of the ball.
On offense, this should remain an elite unit as long as Allen returns to his pre-injury form. The relative weak spots still look to be the offensive line and the wide receivers beyond Stefon Diggs.
Some pieces have been moved around at guard, and rookie O’Cyrus Torrence could prove a boon if he can grab a starting spot. But, this still looks like a below average unit, one that got overwhelmed by the Bengals in the playoffs last year. It’s mostly the same group that graded out 21st in PFF’s pass blocking ratings, though perhaps some continuity helps them perform better.
Gabe Davis underwhelmed as WR2 and looks more like a deep specialist than a down-to-down threat. Khalil Shakir showed flashes as a low-volume rookie and Trent Sherfield was solid as a rotational member in Miami. But, this group is thin, and any injury to Diggs would have devastating consequences.
The wild card would be what, if anything, rookie TE Dalton Kincaid brings to the table. He enters with a big-time receiving pedigree, but TE is a notoriously difficult position for rookies to make early impacts.
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Defensive Outlook
Unlike the offense, Buffalo’s defense has a lot of question marks despite strong continuity as well.
Two of the big ones surround injury. Will former star-level performers Von Miller at EDGE and Tre’Davious White at CB regain their old form?
In terms of the pass rush, there’s talent even without Miller. Greg Rousseau and newcomer Leonard Floyd both know how to get to the QB. However, the unit never seemed quite the same after losing Miller about halfway through the season.
White is perhaps the player Buffalo more urgently needs to return to elite status. Coming off a torn ACL, he never looked close to the same guy last year. And the Bills have little else on the outside besides hoping 2022 first-rounder Kaiir Elam makes a jump.
On the bright side, Buffalo has the best safety pairing in the NFL after bringing back Micah Hyde and Jordan Poyer. Slot guy Taron Johnson is a standout as well.
Buffalo’s defense could be quite strong, but there’s a lot of variance at corner here. If things are rough there, expect a middle-of-the-pack performance.
Bills Schedule And Odds For Every Game
Early betting markets from DraftKings Sportsbook can give us a look at what to expect for the Bills’ game-to-game chances of victory. These numbers will obviously change massively. But, they’re still a useful tool.
| Week | Opponent | Bills Spread | Game Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | @ New York Jets | -2.5 | Monday Night Football |
| 2 | Las Vegas | -7.5 | Short rest following MNF |
| 3 | @ Washington | -4.5 | |
| 4 | Miami | -3.5 | |
| 5 | Jacksonville | -3.5 | London |
| 6 | New York Giants | -7 | Sunday Night Football |
| 7 | @ New England | -2.5 | |
| 8 | Tampa Bay | -10 | Thursday Night Football |
| 9 | @ Cincinnati | +1 | Sunday Night Football; Extra rest following TNF |
| 10 | Denver | -6 | Monday Night Football |
| 11 | New York Jets | -3.5 | |
| 12 | @ Philadelphia | +1.5 | |
| 14 | @ Kansas City | +3.5 | Extra rest following bye |
| 15 | Dallas | -4 | |
| 16 | @ LA Chargers | -1 | Saturday game |
| 17 | New England | -5.5 | |
| 18 | @ Miami | +1.5 |
Converting these spreads to moneylines, one comes up with approximately 10.4 projected market wins for the Bills.
The futures market, though, has a more optimistic projection. It offers the same number but the over is the juiced side, as it’s been since the opener. The number remains .
After opening around +700, Bills Super Bowl odds have slipped ever so slightly to . That’s probably more a result of the obvious improvements by the New York Jets than anything else. With the path through the AFC East notably tougher, the Bills are less likely to grab a top seed and have a smooth (or what passes for that in a loaded AFC) path to the Super Bowl.
Bills Key Advanced Stats, Ranks In 2022
| Stat | Bills Value (League Rank) |
|---|---|
| Offense DVOA | +19% (2) |
| Defense DVOA | -11% (4) |
| Special Teams DVOA | +5% (1) |
| Rush Offense EPA/Play | -0.064 (16) |
| Rush Defense EPA/Play | -0.121 (5) |
| Pass Offense EPA/Play | +0.203 (2) |
| Pass Defense EPA/Play | -0.005 (11) |
Possible Offseason Bet On Bills Odds For 2023
A year after they were the belle of the ball, seemingly everyone has rendered the Buffalo Bills an afterthought. The consensus thought across the board seems to be that the Chiefs are the best team in the NFL, the Bills don’t even have the second-best quarterback in the conference anymore, and the AFC East is going to be a tight battle all season.
OK, fair enough on point No. 1, but I have to wonder about the second and third parts. Entering last season, you’d have been laughed out of a room for suggesting Josh Allen was any lower than QB2 in the NFL. Then, he played half of the season with a shredded elbow, putting up very similar stats to those of Joe Burrow. In fact, by both DVOA and EPA/play, Allen was clearly the better QB.
Yet, public perception of the Bills has plummeted?
Yes, the AFC East and a schedule that includes Kansas City and Philadelphia, not to mention Jacksonville in London, presents an immense challenge. But we’ve seen top teams overcome things like that before. And I still think this can be a top team, certainly the top team in the AFC East.
Jets Hype Creating Value On Bills?
The Bills have essentially run it back on a team that was consensus Super Bowl favorites and ran away with the AFC East by a four-game margin (even assuming they’d have lost the game in Cincinnati). Yet, the market believes they’re less than 50-50 just to repeat in the division.
I think that has created some value on Buffalo, currently at .
Miami and New York both have major question marks on offense. Miami still has a weak offensive line and the ever looming QB injury grim reaper. New York has similar questions up front, with projected starters that include a rookie (Joe Tippmann), a guy going into his age-38 season (Duane Brown) and a guy who has played 48 snaps in two seasons. And if last year’s level of play is the new normal for Aaron Rodgers, forget about this team making any serious noise.
Yes, both teams probably have more talented defenses than Buffalo. But, betting on defense is not generally an advisable strategy in today’s NFL, not when the Bills have such a clearly potent offense. At worst, this looks like it should be an elite offense/medium-strength defense outfit. The Chiefs have ridden that formula to three Super Bowls in four years.
The Bills have the best track record, the best continuity and easily the best QB in the AFC East. I’m happy to take the discount and bet them at any plus-money price this year. Best of lucking betting on Bills odds this year.
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