2023 NFL Odds: Over/Under Buffalo Bills QB Josh Allen Passing Yards
Josh Allen enters the 2023 NFL season with lofty expectations. Allen is projected to record the fifth-most passing yards, according to most Buffalo Bills odds. Caesars Sportsbook has his Over/Under set at /. Among NFL win totals, Buffalo is also set at the fifth-highest of any team: /.
In this post, I’ll show you why I’ve already bet the Under on Allen passing yards. Click on any of the sports betting odds within to bet now.
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Buffalo Bills Odds: Josh Allen Season-Long Props
Where has Allen finished in passing yards each year?
An Under for Allen would mark the second year in a row he failed to reach 4,300 passing yards passing. Although, he probably would’ve surpassed that total had he played a full 17 games, after the Damar Hamlin emergency on Monday Night Football cancelled that game. We left out his rookie year from the table below, as not to bias his passing yards production.
| Year | Games | Pass Attempts | Passing Yards |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 16 | 461 | 3,089 |
| 2021 | 17 | 572 | 4,544 |
| 2020 | 16 | 646 | 4,407 |
| 2019 | 16 | 567 | 4,283 |
It’s a tougher road for Buffalo
One thing’s for sure, it’s going to be much tougher sledding for Buffalo’s QB than it was last season.
After three straight seasons of 11+ wins, don’t be surprised if the Bills come slightly back to earth in 2023. They faced just six playoff teams, en route to last year’s 13-3 record. Allen in particular enjoyed the luxury of facing pass defenses that were anywhere from bad to awful. Eleven of his 14 opponents sat in the bottom half of the league in passing yards allowed, including the three worst – Tennessee, Minnesota, and Detroit.
If the projections for this year’s defensive rankings can be trusted, that’s not going to be the case moving forward.
On top of facing its divisional opponents twice (Jets, Patriots and Dolphins), Buffalo will take on two powerhouse divisions in the NFC East and AFC West. Four of the top-five pass defenses, according to Pro Football Focus’s projections, play in these three divisions alone: Jets (2nd), Cowboys (3rd), Patriots (4th) and Commanders (5th). The Broncos (9th), Eagles (10th) and Chiefs (12th) are not far behind them, either.
Even the poorly-rated Giants (28th) and Dolphins (23rd) are stacked with pass rushers. Both defensive line units are listed in PFF’s preseason top 10.
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Ho hum offseason in western New York
Overall, Buffalo’s front office scored a passing grade for its offseason transactions. Running back Devin Singletary departed, but Buffalo shored up its backfield with former Patriot speedster, Damien Harris and veteran bruiser, Latavius Murray. They’ll both backup last year’s secon-round pick, James Cook. He seems to own the starting job heading into training camp.
Elsewhere within the offense, Connor McGovern and Deonte Harty will replace guard Rodger Saffold and wideout Isaiah McKenzie respectively. Although, second-year WR Khalil Shakir is getting some hype to start in 3WR sets. Linebacker Tremaine Edwards left for big money in Chicago, but that won’t impact Allen’s passing yards directly.
What will impact them is the status of star wide receiver Stefon Diggs.
Dramatic offseason between Stefon Diggs and Bills brass
The pro-bowl wideout initially raised eyebrows when he chose not to show up for the team’s OTAs. He followed up this decision with a few cryptic tweets indicating he might not show up to training camp right away either. It’s still not fully clear why he’s so unhappy.
Former NFL quarterback Robert Griffin III circulated the idea that Diggs was still upset with Allen over last year’s playoff loss. The two were seen having a “passionate” discussion on the sidelines after Diggs only saw one target during a pivotal, failed 10-play drive in the third quarter.
A more recent report hints that his storm of emotions is actively washing away. Bills fans better hope it does.
Since joining Buffalo three years ago, Diggs has the fourth-most receiving yards in the league. Moreover, Allen just isn’t the same QB without his top target. In 49 career games with him, he’s averaged 270 yards per game with 2.2 touchdowns, completing 65% of his attempts. In 28 games without him? 184 yards per game with 1.07 TDs and a 56% completion rate.
My Conclusion: Under For Allen Passing Yards
I already locked the under for Allen’s passing total on DraftKings at 4,350.05 yards on June 27. Again, an Over/Under of / is available at Caesars Sportsbook. It is still a better number than FanDuel’s O/U of 4,200 passing yards.
Admittedly, there’s a ton of talent on this Bills roster. But, there are also a few ways this season could unravel for Allen and his output. Where there’s smoke, there’s usually fire, and Diggs’s temperament could ignite a bigger blast. His riff with his QB is, at the very least, a situation that requires monitoring.
Lastly, Allen’s rushing attempts have also steadily increased every year since he was a rookie, a fact that needs to be considered for a sixth-year, mobile quarterback.
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