As NFL training camps begin, FanDuel Ontario is starting to offer promotional odds for bettors, including a Buffalo Bills odds boost this week on their win total. Not all boosts are worthwhile – some don’t add enough expected value (EV) to bet, and sometimes even boosted odds aren’t better than a competitors’ regular odds.
To find the NFL one this week, just go to the ‘Odds Boost’ tab on FanDuel Sportsbook Ontario, and you’ll see it at the top. We’ll go through this NFL odds boost and see if it makes sense to bet, as well as show you how to measure future odds boosts yourself.
How To Analyze The Buffalo Bills Odds Boost
One of the features at FanDuel Ontario is a weekly Odds Boost, and this week’s offer hits close to home. It offers the Buffalo Bills’ odds to win 13 or more games at +150, boosted from +130. So, is it worth betting?
Step 1: Find The Fair Market Price
The first step to deciding whether or not a boost is worth a bet is searching for better odds available for the same bet. FanDuel’s post-boost price is +150, so to even consider it being a value, the market price would have to be worse than that.
DraftKings has the same bet at +175 – Bills season win total Over 12.5, which would need the Bills to win 13 or more games.
Given that there’s already a better price, it’s definitely not worth betting, but let’s still go through the process. This way you’ll know how to measure other odds boosts that are the best available price in the market.
Given that the only two sportsbook offering alternative win totals are FanDuel and DraftKings, we’ll use an average of FanDuel’s pre-boost price and DraftKings’ to determine the fair price. In this case, after taking the vig out, the fair price is about +166.
Step 2: Calculate The Change In Expected Value
Now that we have a fair market price to compare with the odds boost, we can calculate how much additional expected value (EV) this FanDuel odds boost gives us.
First, convert each price to implied probabilities. There are calculators that can do this quickly for you, but the equation is:
[100 / (positive odds + 100)] x 100 = implied probability
Using this formula, we find these implied probabilities:
- Fair market price: 37.92%
- FanDuel odds boost price: 40%
Finally, to calculate how much of an increase in expected value this is:
[(fair market implied probability/odds boost implied probability) – 1] x 100
This comes out to -5.2%. Therefore, this FanDuel Ontario odds boost has about -5% EV.
Step 3: Is It Worth A Bet?
Whatever you think of the chances of the Buffalo Bills this year, this boost from FanDuel isn’t reflective of the market reality. Even if you think they might win 13 games – which, after the addition of Von Miller this offseason, isn’t unreasonable – there’s a much better ways to bet them to win 13 or more games.
Usually, a boost needs to have at least a 5% EV to be worth betting, so even if it was a breakeven price, it would still be a bad bet. In this case, with a negative EV and a site with a clearly better price, it’s 100% not an odds boost you should bet.
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