Buccaneers vs. Falcons: Week 17 NFL Betting Preview – January 3, 2021

Posted By Staff on December 29, 2020

The Atlanta Falcons (4-11) are an underdog by  as they look to break a four-game slide in a matchup against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (10-5) on Sunday, January 3, 2021 at Raymond James Stadium. The contest has a point total of .

The betting insights in this article reflect betting data from DraftKings as of December 28, 2020, 2:41 PM ET. See table below for current betting odds and CLICK HERE to bet at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Buccaneers vs Falcons Betting Odds

Buccaneers vs Falcons Props

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Betting the Total (Over/Under)

  • Buccaneers games average 51.7 total points per game this season, equal to the over/under for this matchup.
  • Games involving the Falcons this year have averaged 49.3 points per game, a 1.2-point differential when compared to the over/under for this contest.
  • Buccaneers games have gone over 50.5 points on eight occasions this season (53.3% of matchups).
  • In six (40%) games this season, the Falcons have combined with their opponents to go over 50.5 points.
  • These two teams score a combined average of 54.5 points per game, higher than the total for this matchup by four points.
  • The Buccaneers score the fifth-most points in the NFL this season, while the Falcons’ offense puts up the 17th-most.
  • The over/under for this game is set at 50.5 points, 3.9 points higher than the two teams’ opponents scoring average.
  • Tampa Bay is the NFL’s eighth-ranked scoring defense while Atlanta is the 19th-ranked.
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Buccaneers Betting Insights

  • Most of Tampa Bay’s games this year — eight out of 15 — have hit the over (53.3%).
  • Tampa Bay is 8-7 against the spread.
  • The Buccaneers have an ATS record of 3-2 when playing as at least 6.5-point favorites.

Falcons Betting Insights

  • Most of Atlanta’s games this year — nine out of 15 — have not gone over the point total (60%).
  • Atlanta has put together a losing 7-8 record against the spread this season.

Buccaneers vs Falcons: Head to Head

Buccaneers vs Falcons: Last 3 Meetings
Date Favorite Home Team Spread Total Favorite Moneyline Underdog Moneyline Total Yards Result
12/20/2020 Buccaneers Falcons -6.00 49.50 -286 +240 416-369 TB 31-27 TB
12/29/2019 Buccaneers Buccaneers -1 48 -110 +-104 373-329 ATL 28-22 ATL
11/24/2019 Falcons Falcons -3.5 51.5 -180 +155 446-337 TB 35-22 TB

Check out TheLines YouTube channel to learn more about betting tips and picks for this week’s NFL action.

When the Buccaneers Have the Ball

  • The Buccaneers, on average, score 5.2 more points per game this season (29.9) than the Falcons allow (24.7).
  • In games where Tampa Bay score at least 29.9 points this season, they are 7-0 overall and 5-2 against the spread.
  • Atlanta is 3-6 overall and 4-5 against the spread this season in games where they allow fewer than 24.7 points.
  • The Falcons defense has allowed an average of 392.7 yards per game this season, 15.4 yards more than the 377.3 the Buccaneers offense has averaged.
  • The Buccaneers pick up 5.9 yards per play while the Falcons allow 6.1 per play.
  • When the Tampa Bay offense puts together a game with at least their 2020 average in yardage, they are 5-1 overall and 4-2 against the spread this season.
  • When Atlanta allows fewer total yards to opposing offenses than their season average, they are 3-4 against the spread and 3-4 overall this season.
  • The Falcons have allowed opposing rushing attacks to average 105.7 yards per game, compared to the 95 yards the Buccaneers offense has averaged on the ground per contest.
  • In games where the Tampa Bay rushing attack puts together at least their season average, the Buccaneers are 6-1 overall and 5-2 against the spread.
  • This season, when the Atlanta defense allows opponents to pick up less than 105.7 yards on the ground, they are 4-4 against the spread and 3-5 overall.
  • This season, the Falcons have forced an average of 1.3 turnovers per game compared to the 1.1 times Buccaneers have turned the football over in each contest.
  • In games where they turn the football over 1.1 times or fewer this season, Tampa Bay is 9-1 overall and 6-4 against the spread.
  • Atlanta’s record this season when they force more than 1.3 turnovers: 4-1 ATS, 2-3 overall

When the Falcons Have the Ball

  • The Falcons score 24.6 points per game, comparable to the 21.9 per matchup the Buccaneers give up.
  • Atlanta is 6-2 against the spread and 4-4 overall a season ago when the team records at least 24.6 points.
  • This season, Tampa Bay has a 5-2 record against the spread and a 7-0 record overall in games when it holds opponents to 29.9 or fewer points.
  • The Falcons collect 43.8 more yards per game (367.1), than the Buccaneers allow per outing (323.3). On average, the Falcons pick up 5.5 yards per play, while the Buccaneers allow 5.1 per play.
  • In games Tampa Bay limits its opponents to 323.3 or fewer yards, it has a 4-2 record ATS and a 4-2 record overall.
  • This season, the Falcons pile up 93.7 rushing yards per game, 16.2 more per game than the Buccaneers allow per outing (77.5).
  • When Atlanta rushes for at least 93.7 yards, it recorded a 4-2 ATS record and a 3-3 overall record.
  • This season, Tampa Bay is 4-4 against the spread and 6-2 overall when holding opponents to no more than 77.5 rushing yards.
  • This year, the Falcons turn the ball over 1.1 times per game, 0.4 fewer turnovers per game than the 1.5 the Buccaneers force on average.
  • Atlanta is 7-5 against the spread and 4-8 overall when it turns the ball over 1.1 or fewer times.
  • When it forces 1.5 or more turnovers, Tampa Bay has a 4-4 record against the spread and a 6-2 record overall.

Get the best betting breakdowns and picks on TheLines sports betting podcast

Buccaneers Players to Watch

  • Tom Brady has thrown for 4,234 yards while completing 65.9% of his passes (375-of-569), with 36 touchdowns and 11 interceptions (282.3 yards per game).
  • Leonard Fournette has ran for 354 yards on 92 carries (29.5 yards per game) while scoring six touchdowns in 12 games. He also averages 18.3 receiving yards per game, grabbing 34 passes for 219 yards.
  • In nine games, Ke’Shawn Vaughn has rushed for 109 yards on 26 carries (12.1 ypg).
  • This season, Mike Evans has 67 catches (on 105 targets) to lead the team with 960 yards (64 per game) while scoring 13 touchdowns.
  • Chris Godwin has chipped in with 707 yards on 60 grabs with five touchdowns. He has been targeted 77 times and puts up 64.3 receiving yards per game over the course of 11 matchups this year.
  • Rob Gronkowski has caught 43 passes on 73 targets for 594 yards and seven touchdowns, averaging 39.6 yards per game.
  • Jason Pierre-Paul has registered a team-leading 9.5 sacks, while adding six TFL, 52 tackles, and two interceptions.
  • Devin White has racked up 140 tackles, 15 TFL, and nine sacks so far this season.
  • Mike Edwards has picked off two passes to lead the team while adding nine tackles and five passes defended.

Falcons Players to Watch

  • This year, Matt Ryan has racked up 4,316 passing yards (287.7 yards per game) while going 378-for-582 (64.9% completion percentage) and throwing 24 touchdowns and 11 interceptions.
  • Todd Gurley II has taken 186 carries for 660 rushing yards (47.1 yards per game) while scoring nine touchdowns in 14 games.
  • Brian Hill has 371 yards on 91 carries (24.7 ypg), with one rushing touchdown.
  • This season, Calvin Ridley has 82 catches (on 131 targets) to lead the team with 1,322 yards (94.4 per game) with nine touchdowns in 14 games.
  • Julio Jones has also chipped in with 51 catches for 771 yards and three touchdowns over the course of nine games this year. He has been targeted 68 times and puts up 85.7 receiving yards per game.
  • Russell Gage has caught 63 passes on 99 targets for 695 yards and three touchdowns, averaging 46.3 yards per game.
  • Deion Jones has 4.5 sacks to lead the team, and has also collected eight TFL, 102 tackles, and two interceptions.
  • Foyesade Oluokun has collected 108 tackles, four TFL, three sacks, and two interceptions this season.
  • This season, Blidi Wreh-Wilson leads the team with three interceptions and has added seven tackles, one TFL, and four passes defended.

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