Buccaneers vs. Patriots: Week 4 NFL Betting Preview – October 3, 2021

Written By Staff on October 3, 2021

A Week 4 matchup sees the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-1) play the New England Patriots (1-2). The Patriots, +235 on the moneyline to win, welcome the Buccaneers, listed at -6.5 on the spread, on October 3, 2021 at 8:20 PM ET on NBC. The contest’s point total is currently listed at 49.5.

In this article we break down what you need before placing a bet on the game, including key metrics, weather, injuries, and the best available odds.

The betting insights in this article reflect betting data from DraftKings as of October 3, 2021, 8:12 PM ET. See the table below for current betting odds and CLICK HERE to bet at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Buccaneers Vs. Patriots Betting Odds

Buccaneers Vs. Patriots Player Props

Buccaneers Vs. Patriots Betting Angles

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Buccaneers Vs. Patriots Weather

A high temperature of 60 degrees Fahrenheit, with light rain and 6 mph winds, is the forecast for Gillette Stadium on Sunday (as of 8:12 PM on October 3).

Buccaneers Vs. Patriots Injury Report

Tampa Bay Injuries

Player Pos. Injury Status
Rob Gronkowski TE Ribs Out
Jason Pierre-Paul OLB Shoulder Out
Giovani Bernard RB Knee (mcl) Out
Zach Triner LS Undisclosed Out
Carlton Davis III CB Ribs/abdomen Probable
Justin Watson WR Undisclosed Out
Sean Murphy-Bunting CB Elbow Out
Jamel Dean CB Knee Out
Scotty Miller WR Toe Out
John Molchon G Leg Questionable
Nick Leverett G Gameday Inactive Out
Cam Gill LB Calf Questionable
Kyle Trask QB Gameday Inactive Out
Jaelon Darden WR Gameday Inactive Out
Sadarius Hutcherson G Acl Out

New England Injuries

Player Pos. Injury Status
Nick Folk K Left Knee Probable
Stephon Gilmore CB Quadriceps Out
James White RB Hip Out
Kyle Van Noy LB Groin Probable
Trent Brown OT Calf Out
Raekwon McMillan LB Acl Out
Isaiah Wynn OT Knee Probable
Ja’Whaun Bentley LB Shoulder Out
Troy Fumagalli TE Undisclosed Out
J.C. Jackson CB Knee Probable
Terez Hall LB Undisclosed Out
Jarrett Stidham QB Undisclosed Out
Joejuan Williams CB Gameday Inactive Out
Byron Cowart DT Undisclosed Out
Devin Asiasi TE Gameday Inactive Out
Dalton Keene TE Knee Out
Josh Uche LB Back Probable
Anfernee Jennings LB Undisclosed Out
Kyle Dugger S Hamstring Probable
Malcolm Perry RB Foot Out
Rhamondre Stevenson RB Gameday Inactive Out
Joshuah Bledsoe S Wrist Out
Shaun Wade CB Gameday Inactive Out
Ronnie Perkins LB Gameday Inactive Out
Cameron McGrone LB Knee (acl) Out
Quinn Nordin K Abdomen Out

Buccaneers Offense Vs. Patriots Defense

Buccaneers Offense Stats (Rank) Patriots Defense
34.3 (1) Points/Gm 17.0 (5)
0.53 (3) Points/Play 0.28 (5)
406.0 (8) Yards/Gm 282.3 (5)
362.3 (2) Pass Yards/Gm 180.0 (2)
56.3 (31) Rush Yards/Gm 122.7 (24)
6.2 (9) Yards/Play 4.7 (5)
7.7 (14) Yards/Pass 6.7 (8)
3.5 (26) Yards/Rush 4.0 (13)
41.7% (16) 3rd Down % 40.5% (19)
71.4% (11) Red Zone % 62.5% (14)
5 (24) Turnovers 5 (7)
6 (13) Sacks 9 (6)

Patriots Offense Vs. Buccaneers Defense

Patriots Offense Stats (Rank) Buccaneers Defense
18.0 (27) Points/Gm 29.3 (28)
0.27 (27) Points/Play 0.42 (21)
317.7 (24) Yards/Gm 402.0 (26)
245.7 (22) Pass Yards/Gm 348.7 (32)
91.7 (24) Rush Yards/Gm 63.7 (4)
4.8 (27) Yards/Play 5.8 (17)
6.1 (26) Yards/Pass 7.3 (15)
3.9 (17) Yards/Rush 3.1 (3)
44.7% (9) 3rd Down % 53.2% (29)
25.0% (32) Red Zone % 58.3% (11)
5 (24) Turnovers 4 (11)
5 (5) Sacks 3 (32)

When The Buccaneers Have The Ball

  • The Buccaneers have committed the ninth-most turnovers in the league (5), and are playing the seventh-ranked Patriots defense which has forced five.
  • Tampa Bay averages 3.5 yards per carry (26th in the league) compared to the 4.0 per attempt New England gives up (13th in the NFL).
  • The Buccaneers’ pass protection has resulted in six sacks conceded, 13th-fewest in the league. The Patriots’ defense has compiled nine (sixth-most).
  • Tampa Bay’s 56.3 rushing yards per game is good for 31st in the NFL. New England’s defense gives up 122.7 on the ground (24th in the league).

When The Patriots Have The Ball

  • The Patriots are No. 5 ranked in the league in sacks conceded (five), up against the pass rush ranked 32nd, the Buccaneers (three).
  • Tampa Bay allows opponents to score on 58.3% of their red-zone trips (11th in the league). New England’s offense has a 25.0% red-zone percentage (32nd).
  • The Patriots are ninth in the NFL in third-down percentage (44.7%) and will be up against the 29th-ranked Buccaneers defense in that category (53.2%).
  • New England has the No. 24 rushing offense in the NFL (91.7 yards per game) going up against one of the league’s toughest defenses, belonging to fourth-ranked Tampa Bay (63.7 yards allowed per game).

Buccaneers Betting Trends And Insights

  • Tampa Bay has covered once in three matchups with a spread this season.
  • The Buccaneers have covered the spread once this season (1-1 ATS) when playing as at least 6.5-point favorites.
  • All of Tampa Bay’s games have gone over the point total this season.
  • Tampa Bay’s three games this season have all gone over this contest’s total of 49.5 points.
  • The Buccaneers have a 2-1 record in games they were listed as the moneyline favorite (winning 66.7% of those games).

Patriots Betting Trends And Insights

  • New England has a record of 1-2-0 against the spread this year.
  • New England’s games have not hit the over yet this season.
  • New England has yet to play a game this season that ended with more than 49.5 combined points scored.
  • This is the first time the Patriots will play as underdogs this season.

Buccaneers Players To Watch

  • Tom Brady has 1,087 passing yards (362.3 per game) and a 68.8% completion percentage (97-for-141), tossing 10 touchdown passes and two interceptions.
  • Leonard Fournette has rushed for a team-leading 92 yards (30.7 per game) and zero touchdowns. He also has 77 receiving yards on 12 catches .
  • So far this season Ronald Jones II has rushed for 52 yards (17.3 per game).
  • Chris Godwin has 19 receptions for a team-high 241 yards (80.3 per game) and two touchdowns.
  • Mike Evans’ stat line this year reveals 16 catches for 205 yards and two touchdowns. He averages 68.3 receiving yards per game and has been targeted 25 times.
  • Rob Gronkowski has collected 184 yards on 16 receptions with four touchdowns, averaging 61.3 yards per game.
  • This season William Gholston leads the team with 1.0 sack and has added 2.0 TFL and six tackles.
  • Lavonte David has totaled 25 tackles, and he’s tops on his team in tackles.
  • This season Mike Edwards leads the team with two interceptions and has added 11 tackles and three passes defended.

Patriots Players To Watch

  • Mac Jones leads his team in both passing and rushing, including 737 passing yards (245.7 per game), two touchdowns and three interceptions.
  • Damien Harris has run for a team-high 176 yards on 45 carries (58.7 yards per game) and one touchdown.
  • Jakobi Meyers has been targeted 29 times and has 19 catches, leading his team with 176 yards (58.7 per game).
  • Kendrick Bourne has tacked on nine receptions (on 14 targets) for 123 yards and one touchdown.
  • Nelson Agholor is averaging 36.7 receiving yards per game, racking up 10 receptions (18 targets) for 110 yards and one touchdown.
  • Matthew Judon has 3.5 sacks to lead the team, and has also racked up 4.0 TFL and nine tackles.
  • Ja’Whaun Bentley has totaled 20 tackles and 2.0 TFL, and he’s tops on his team in tackles.
  • J.C. Jackson has a team-high two interceptions and has tacked on 11 tackles and three passes defended three this season.

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