The NFL win totals market is extremely popular this time of year. In this article, we are going to identify four teams whose projected win totals are substantially different from their finishing record last season. We’ll look at why these teams are expected to rise or fall in 2022 and how bettors can potentially capitalize on each of these team’s preseason projections. For a look at every team’s NFL win totals head to our season long over unders page.
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Broncos Win Total
2021 record: 7-10, 4th AFC West
2022 O/U: 10 (Over -110, Under -110)
Difference: 3 more wins
The Broncos are ready for relevance. They haven’t made the playoffs since Peyton Manning rode into the sunset after winning Super Bowl 50, but they also haven’t had a good quarterback since he left. Denver has started 11 different QBs over the last six seasons. Say goodbye to the carousel of names like Brock Osweiler, Jeff Driskel, Brett Rypien, and Brandon Allen. Say hello to a future Hall of Famer in Russell Wilson.
The Broncos traded for Wilson, signed a dominant defensive end (Randy Gregory), and hired a new offensive-minded head coach. Nathaniel Hackett is the polar opposite of Vic Fangio, who never prioritized throwing the football. Wilson is going to air it out alongside a dynamic duo of running backs and a group of talented receivers. The offense will be strong. Denver also had the league’s best red zone defense in 2021.
This is a good team. But in the AFC West, they might have to be great. Wilson is getting thrown into undoubtedly the strongest division in football. Everything will need to click for Wilson and Hackett to finally get Denver back to the postseason. With a projected win total of 10, and this group’s complete lack of experience playing together, the Broncos are a risky bet.
Giants Win Total
2021 record: 4-13, 4th NFC East
2022 O/U: 7 (Over -110, Under -110)
Difference: 3 more wins
The Giants surely have a stronger team than last season’s dumpster fire. But did they really improve by more than 3 wins?
New York completely revamped their offensive line with new starters, including first round pick Evan Neal. Their other first rounder, defensive end Kayvon Thibodeaux, could make an instant impact off the edge. Barring injuries, the Giants’ defense is going to be decent.
The offense? Not so much.
The Giants have no established threats in the passing game. Kenny Golladay is well past his prime and did not look comfortable in his first year with the Giants. Kadarius Toney could be an elite playmaker, but he has raised plenty of question marks on and off the field. This is Daniel Jones’ last chance to prove himself. With a career QBR hovering around 50, Jones will enter the 2022 season as easily one of the league’s worst quarterbacks.
It’s a passer’s league. No matter how much Saquon Barkley bounces back, which he certainly could, Jones has not shown the ability to lead a team anywhere near 7.5 wins. Unless new head coach Brian Daboll can unlock Jones’ potential right away, the Giants should finish under their projected win total.
Titans Win Total
2021 record: 12-5, 1st AFC South
2022 O/U: 9 (Under -115, Over -105)
Difference: 3 less wins
Tennessee finished last season as the AFC’s top seed. Despite Derrick Henry missing the entire second half, they won 12 games and ran away with the division.
Sportsbooks are projecting a significantly worse season for the Titans in 2022. They lost two notable starters, wide receiver A.J. Brown and Pro Bowl guard Rodger Saffold. There are also question marks surrounding quarterback Ryan Tannehill after a disastrous performance in the Titans’ playoff loss to Cincinnati. Tannehill threw three interceptions, posting the worst QBR of any postseason game last year. Tennessee ultimately drafted his replacement, Malik Willis, which could adversely affect Tannehill’s play this season.
Although they lost a young star in Brown, the Titans did make two notable moves to strengthen their receiving core. They traded for Robert Woods, who missed most of last season with an ACL tear. Woods is a strong receiver, an elite blocker, and he is expected to play Week 1 barring any setbacks. Tennessee also used their first round draft pick on a receiver, selecting Treylon Burks out of Arkansas. Burks was named to the All-SEC first team in 2021, with 12 touchdowns in 12 games. He will start opposite Woods in a revamped wide receiver room. New tight end Austin Hooper should also play a big role on offense.
Ultimately, the Titans run game should be much better with a full season of Henry. Their passing game could suffer without Brown, but Woods and Burks should be able to replicate most of his production. Tannehill is clearly not a top-tier quarterback, however the pieces around him should give Tennessee a good chance to finish over their projected win total of 8.5.
Cardinals Win Total
2021 record: 11-6, 2nd NFC West
2022 O/U: 8.5 (Over -110, Under -110)
Difference: 2.5 less wins
Unlike the Titans, Arizona didn’t lose any star players in the offseason. Running back Chase Edmonds is gone, but he had already lost the starting role to James Conner. Wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins is out the first six games with a PED-related suspension, but he missed more games than that in 2021 while battling through multiple injuries. The Cardinals actually gained a star on offense, trading for Baltimore’s Marquise Brown. The former first round pick just put up career highs in receptions (91) and yards (1,008) despite playing one-third of the season with a backup quarterback.
The Arizona Cardinals have increased their win total each of the last three seasons. They re-signed QB Kyler Murray, Conner, and TE Zach Ertz. They went into the free agent market to sign a starting offensive lineman, Will Hernandez, and a former first round pick, cornerback Jeff Gladney.
After winning 11 games last year, the Cardinals have improved, at least on paper. Yet for some reason, the sportsbooks think Arizona will regress. Yes, their blowout loss in last year’s NFC Wild Card game is still hard to forget. And in terms of 2021 opponent winning percentage, they do have the league’s second-hardest strength of schedule. Even so, the Cardinals’ projected win total of 8.5 seems too low after a fairly strong offseason.