Super Bowl 58 Player Prop Bets: 49ers QB Brock Purdy Odds Vs. Chiefs

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Written By Derek Wagner | Last Updated
brock purdy props

The 49ers are out for revenge, as Super Bowl odds across sports betting apps make San Francisco a small favorite in the rematch of Super Bowl 54. Brock Purdy player props will undoubtedly be popular bets among fans. The 49ers quarterback has gone from Mr. Irrelevant (the last pick in the NFL Draft) to one of the favorites to win Super Bowl MVP.

BROCK PURDY PLAYER PROPS: FULL SECTION OF ODDS

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Brock Purdy Props: Passing

Over or Under Passing Yards?

Purdy only averages 237.7 passing yards per game, which makes this number very tight. He’s surpassed this number in both postseason games; however, the Lions’ defense is a pass funnel, so that was expected.

Now, Purdy faces a Chiefs defense that ranks second in Dropback success rate and only 15th in rushing success rate. The Ravens and Todd Monken had a perplexing gameplan against KC, where Gus Edwards and Justice Hill only combined for six carries. With the glaring weakness being their rush defense, I expect a concerted effort from Shanahan to move the ball on the ground, making me gravitate to the under on this prop. Buffalo had incredible success on the ground against the Chiefs, accumulating a total of 182 rushing yards while Josh Allen threw for 186 yards. Should the Niners replicate that effort from the Bills on the ground, this under is definitely in play.

When Purdy has faced stout pass defenses like the Browns and Ravens, he struggled mightily. Against Baltimore, the game got out of hand, and he was forced into a negative game script, resulting in him throwing for 255 yards before exiting with an injury. In Week 6 against the top pass defense in the league, Purdy threw for a mere 125 yards; however, Christian McCaffrey and Deebo Samuel both exited the game with injuries.

Over or Under Passing Touchdowns?

With the Chief’s defense being stout against the pass, I’m again looking toward the under here. Steve Spagnuolo’s squad only allowed four quarterbacks to exceed this number this season: Jordan Love, Kirk Cousins, Zach Wilson, and Russell Wilson. With top-tier cornerbacks Trent McDuffie and Sneed lurking in the secondary, opposing quarterbacks struggled all season. The pairing only allowed four touchdowns in coverage all season, and Sneed notched 11 pass breakups, fourth most in the league.

Furthermore, the 49ers are likely to lean into their identity, which is running the football. Shanahan’s squad only averages 29.5 passing attempts per game, the third-lowest mark in the league. If this comes into play and the Niners keep pounding the rock, Purdy will have fewer opportunities.

Lastly, the Chiefs’ defense is fantastic at limiting explosive plays, allowing only 39 explosive pass plays all season. Limiting the Niners’ skill position players from scoring explosive touchdowns is a tall task, but there’s no better team to do that than KC. Should they succeed, this may turn into a game where CMC gets an abundance of red zone touches.

Blitzing Purdy A Bad Idea?

The one concern for this prop going under is if Purdy can find open receivers when the Chiefs bring a blitz. Purdy is PFF’s 7th graded QB when blitzed, having thrown for 1,956 yards when blitzed, second-most in the league behind Jared Goff. KC’s defense blitzes at the 7th highest rate in the league. Against the three highest blitz rate teams in the league (Vikings, Giants, and Buccaneers), Purdy averaged 305 passing yards per contest. Should this prop go over, it will likely come as a result of the Chiefs being burned when they bring extra pressure.

Derek’s Bet: Brock Purdy Under 1.5 Passing Touchdowns

Best Available Line: Over/Under /

With the 49ers team total for the game sitting around 24.5 points, oddsmakers have San Fran scoring three touchdowns in the game. Given that the Niners have the clear advantage on the ground in this one, I’d expect a few of them to come on the ground, especially when you factor in their high rushing rate. Let’s take Purdy’s under passing touchdowns against a stiff KC secondary. Best of luck betting Brock Purdy props in the Super Bowl!

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