NFC Championship Odds: 49ers QB Brock Purdy Player Prop Bets vs. Lions
With the San Francisco 49ers barely avoiding an upset last week, all eyes are on Brock Purdy in the NFC Championship Game. The Niners are still the favorite in Super Bowl odds but will need to play much better than last week. Trying to up his game after his underwhelming performance against the Packers, Purdy will be key to the 49ers making the Super Bowl for the first time since 2019. Brock Purdy props are out at betting sites. Here are some that stood out to me.
NFL Player Prop Bets: Lions at 49ers
Strategy For Betting Brock Purdy Props
The Niners are bouncing around touchdown favorites this week on the spread. The uncertainty around Deebo Samuel’s status is why their spread is volatile. Whether he’s in or not, the Niners will look to use Purdy less. Thirty-nine passing attempts last week was a season-high, though he would have had more against Baltimore if he hadn’t been benched. That usage level has never been in the Niners’ plans when they’re running well.
Whether they’ll be able to run well is the question. The Lions were 21st in defensive EPA in the regular season, which should work to San Fran’s advantage. Given that, here are three Brock Purdy props I’ve bet for Sunday.
Brock Purdy Prop Bets
My instinct, before looking at the lines for completions and attempts, was to look under. That was on the assumption that the lines would be significantly higher on the basis of last week. With such a low total on his completions, however, an Over has to be the way to go. This is above his season average of 19.25 completions a game, but there are a bunch of reasons to think this should be an over.
Whether Deebo plays or not, he won’t be the player he normally is. Purdy routinely puts up gaudy yardage numbers on low completion totals because his weapons can create immense opportunities in space. Taking away, either entirely or mostly, one of those playmakers will mean the Niners need to run more plays. More plays likely means more passing.
The Niners also haven’t played many competitive games. Of the 12 games Purdy won this year, only one was within one possession – and that was only because Sean McVay kicked a FG down 10 as the clock ran out. The Lions project to be one of the strictest tests of the season for San Fran. Purdy went over this number against Minnesota and Cincinnati, and Purdy and Sam Darnold combined to go over it against Baltimore. This bet makes a ton of sense with the high total as well.
Over Rushing Attempts
Purdy isn’t much of a rusher, but the Lions do pose a threat and an opportunity, for Purdy on the ground. Their pass rush, and namely Aiden Hutchinson, can get to the QB. If Purdy has to move in the pocket, there could be room up the middle to get a few yards.
The pivot racked up 6 attempts last week, including the kneels at the end of the game. Those kneels count as attempts, which helps this bet as well, but even without them, the Niners’ QB should go over. In a playoff game where there might not be the Niners’ second-most dynamic playmaker, everyone else will have to step up. And in this case, Purdy tucking makes a lot of sense as a possible way to lift the burden and keep the defense honest.
To Throw An Interception:
Purdy’s thrown 11 INTs this season, a number that doesn’t exactly inspire a lot of confidence. That said, a deeper look at where his INTs have come from makes it clear that the overall number is inflated.
Four came against the Ravens, three of which were tipped. The Lions’ defense does not have the ability to rattle Purdy in the way that Baltimore’s defense did, nor will Purdy likely be down all game as he was against the Ravens. Two of his INTs were against Cleveland in the pouring rain, and two more came when he was playing concussed against Minnesota. With clear skies and no known brain trauma, those risks aren’t there.
In the other 14 games, Purdy’s thrown three picks. As long as the Niners don’t collapse, Purdy won’t likely have to throw enough, and almost certainly not deep enough, to risk an interception. The Lions defense doesn’t exactly pose an immense threat. That is, assuming Purdy doesn’t forget how to play football again.
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