From Mr. Irrelevant to NFC Championship starting quarterback, Brock Purdy is one of the best stories of the 2023 NFL season. At times, he’s looked to be a bonafide starter. Other times– namely in both first halves of the playoffs– he comes back down to earth. However, having weapons like Christian McCaffrey and Deebo Samuel make Purdy a weekly threat to produce. In this article, we’ll check out Brock Purdy props for conference championship weekend.
Brock Purdy Player Props
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Brock Purdy Passing Props: Yardage
Hat tip to the 49ers’ front office on this pick. While there’s little chance any of them believed Purdy would ever start a game for them, John Lynch drafted a guy that fits perfectly into the Kyle Shanahan system. As a result, Purdy finished the season sixth in EPA per play and fourth in expected completion percentage (min. 200 snaps).
Going into the NFC Championship Game, Purdy’s passing yardage prop varies. FanDuel Sportsbook offers the lowest number if you’re looking at taking over his yards while DraftKings and Caesars offer a number six yards higher. Against an Eagles defense ranked number-one in both pass DVOA and dropback EPA, the yardage won’t come easily.
The opportunity for yardage will likely come from scheming McCaffrey and Samuel out in space and letting them out-leverage the defense. This was rarely an option in the NFC Divisional Round against the Cowboys, but don’t let that performance deter you. Dallas fields athletic freaks at linebacker like Micah Parsons who were able to take away those schemed plays; Philadelphia doesn’t have quite the same level of athleticism in their linebacking unit.
Look to the Niners’ fourth quarter drive against the Cowboys where they shaved eight minutes off the clock. Shanahan managed to force cornerbacks to match up on Kyle Juszczyk and get inside backers on Brandon Aiyuk, resulting in chunk plays. Personnel mismatches are a staple in the Shanahan offense.
Purdy also found a crutch in George Kittle last week. The Eagles excelled at removing tight ends from the equation this season, allowing around the league-median in receiving yards to tight ends despite them facing the 11th-most targets (120).
With a low over/under and expected tight game, Purdy’s passing yardage numbers will trend lower.
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Attempts, Completions, Touchdowns
Twice this season has Purdy gone over passing attempts– in his first start (a 33-17 win over Miami) and in an overtime shootout with Las Vegas. His first start resulted in inefficiency, with Purdy posting the lowest air yards both on the week and in his young career.
Despite going against the league’s highest-tempo offense in a neutral game script (first in seconds/play), I don’t anticipate Purdy to throw the ball all over the yard. The Niners run the sixth-slowest pace in a neutral game script, not increasing much when trailing. Do note, most first/second half pace splits for teams like SF and PHI are skewed due to them leading by so much so often.
Purdy’s lone start without two passing touchdowns happened last week against the Cowboys. The Eagles’ defensive front generates the second-most pressure in the NFL (25.5%, behind Dallas, 25.6%) and their secondary grades out with the second-best coverage rating, per PFF. Against Dallas, Purdy threw zero touchdowns.
Outside of increased yardage opportunities with McCaffrey and Samuel in space, there’s not much reason to believe Purdy’s performance this week won’t mirror last week’s.
Brock Purdy Rushing Props
While far from a rushing quarterback, Purdy’s shown the ability to scramble when needed. He rushed in two touchdowns this year, both designed QB draws inside the five yard line. Against a front like Philly’s, oddsmakers don’t anticipate much rushing action.
However, it takes just one rush on 3rd & 9 to cover yards. Perhaps a more intriguing prop is his anytime touchdown scorer, set at .
NFC Championship Odds: 49ers At Eagles
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