Why 49ers QB Brock Purdy May Fit Mold Of Potential NFL MVP Longshot
Following an offseason of recovery from elbow ligament surgery, 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy was cleared for the start of training camp and has been practicing. The second-year QB from Iowa State has NFL MVP odds that suggest he has little chance to win. Are the odds wrong to make him as big of a longshot as he is, at , considering the 49ers are one of the favorites out of the NFC in Super Bowl odds? Let’s dive into NFL MVP odds and see if it’s worth taking a flyer on Purdy.
PURDY NFL MVP ODDS: ANALAYZING THE STATS
In his small sample size as starter, Brock Purdy took the NFL by storm as a rookie and piloted the Niners to a 6-0 record to end last season. Could reaching his statistical ceiling combined with the team’s ceiling warrant MVP consideration? Let’s take a closer look at his rookie stats extrapolated over 17 games.
For passing yards, the young QB didn’t put up numbers that garner confidence in him leading the league here. Purdy averaged a mere 218 passing yards per contest in six games, a long way off Patrick Mahomes’ league-leading 308.8. His price to have the most passing yards in the league sits at .
Had he played the entire season, he would have been on pace to finish with the 10th-most passing yards in the league at 3,706. Kyle Shanahan’s offense is extremely run-heavy, as they boast a unit that ran the ball more than 29 times per game (ninth most in the league).
However, I believe Purdy can finish outside the top five in passing yards and still win MVP. Below are previous MVP winners and where they ranked in passing yards. Rodgers dominated the league in back-to-back seasons and helped the Packers to the No. 1 seed in the NFC both years.
- 2022 Mahomes (1st)
- 2021 Rodgers (10th)
- 2020 Rodgers (7th)
- 2019 Lamar Jackson (22nd)
- 2018 Mahomes (2nd)
- 2017 Brady (1st)
- 2016 Ryan (2nd)
This is the stat where Purdy can make noise. In his six starts last season, Purdy was incredibly efficient and threw 13 touchdowns. For a 17-game season, he was on pace for about 37 passing touchdowns, which would have been good enough for second in the league behind the eventual MVP Mahomes.
The tendency of Shanahan to lean heavily on the run suggests that Purdy can’t lead the league in passing touchdowns, but the talent surrounding him pushes against that narrative. Headlined by skill players like George Kittle, Deebo Samuel and Christian McCaffrey, San Fran popped off 56 explosive passing plays of 20+ yards or more (7th most in the NFL).
These weapons at skill positions and Shanahan’s elite play-calling make Purdy a threat to compete for passing touchdowns leader with one of the most lethal offenses in the league.
MVP candidates will likely get votes if they have an excellent touchdown to interception ratio. Purdy checks this box as he was on pace for a 37 TD and only eight interceptions. Below are recent MVP winners that put up similar numbers in route to winning.
- 2017: Brady: 32 touchdowns (3rd) and eight interceptions
- 2016: Matt Ryan: 38 touchdowns and seven interceptions
Purdy only averaged 26.83 passing attempts in six starts, putting him on pace for 456 attempts (17th in the NFL). Previous MVP candidates such as Jalen Hurts and Lamar Jackson have also finished low in attempts but used their legs to catapult themselves to the top of MVP odds boards. MVP voters lean heavily towards counting stats, but we’ve seen exceptions to this one. Ryan’s Falcons didn’t finish first in the NFC in the 2016 season, but he put up incredible numbers.
- 2021: Rodgers (531 attempts, 12th)
- 2020: Rodgers (526 attempts, 13th)
- 2016: Ryan (534 attempts, 17th)
Efficiency is also a path to an MVP candidacy.
nfl mvp odds final thoughts
Despite being a QB in a run-heavy offense, I’m taking a flyer on Brock Purdy at 50-1 MVP odds. He’s a quarterback on a team that is a favorite to get the number one seed in the NFC at odds.
He has the potential to put up a fantastic touchdown to interception ratio that will grab voters’ attention at the end of the season, and if the Niners steamroll their opponents in the beginning of the season, this +5000 number is likely to shorten. Remember that Purdy NFL MVP odds amazingly shrunk to +900 in January of this past season, despite starting only six games.
Team success is a big factor in handicapping NFL MVP odds too.
Should the Niners go over their win total of /, they’ll be in contention for the No. 1 seed in the NFC, thus making him an MVP candidate if his efficient play continues.
Best of luck if you bet Brock Purdy or anybody else in NFL MVP odds! Do you agree? Chime in with your thoughts on NFL MVP in TheLines.com’s free sports betting Discord channel.
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