2024 British Open DFS Picks: 4 Longshots & Sleepers For Golf Fantasy Contests
The fourth and final major of the 2023 season, we head to Scotland for 2024 British Open betting at Royal Troon Golf Club. In the wake of Brian Harman’s improbable 2023 victory at Hoylake, British Open longshots have never felt more viable. While Major championships are not always synonymous with randomness or surprises from longshot winners, we’ll see plenty of elite talents drift back to appealing odds and prices for British Open DFS contests as a byproduct of one of the strongest fields in golf.
So many top-heavy names in the field create a perfect opportunity to capitalize on drastic odds and pricing drops for mid to low-tier players. And with so much randomness in store from the conditions of links golf, it’s a great opportunity to search for high-upside golf sleeper picks. The key skillsets of Driving Accuracy, SG: Approach, and proven past results on windy links courses are traits that can be found at a discount in this loaded field.
Below, we’ll look at potential British Open picks and dig in deep as we look for PGA TOUR sleepers in this week’s golf odds. Click on the odds to bet now.
UNDERDOG GOLF FANTASY DRAFT CHEAT SHEET
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British Open Underdog Fantasy Draft Tiers
Underdog snake drafts include British Open contests that strip away the complexity of traditional DFS lineup-making. John’s British Open DFS picks may provide valuable sleepers for your Underdog golf drafts.
Tier 1
Xander Schauffele
Rory McIlroy
Scottie Scheffler
Tier 2
Tommy Fleetwood
Ludvig Aberg
Collin Morikawa
Viktor Hovland
Brooks Koepka
Tyrrell Hatton
Tier 3
Tom Kim
Tony Finau
Robert MacIntyre
Jordan Spieth
Min Woo Lee
Brian Harman
Tier 4
Russell Henley
Sepp Straka
Jason Day
Dean Burmester
Sungjae Im
Corey Conners
Tier 5
Christiaan Bezuidenhout
Shubhankar Sharma
Maverick McNealy
Russell Henley
Matthieu Pavon
FINDING VALUE IN British Open DFS PICKS
To identify “value” any given week on the PGA TOUR, I find it’s best first to understand the consensus key stat profile. Then, take a stance on the elements of the tournament that may go overlooked. At the British Open, Recent Form, performance in recent Majors, and Comp Links course history are consensus key areas factored into each player’s price.
From a sleeper perspective, I will primarily focus on the importance of positioning off-the-tee and SG: Approach to differentiate my player pool and find value for this week’s tournament. While we haven’t seen Royal Troon since 2016, several examples of comp courses that require similar skill sets in similar conditions may be more indicative of success this week than simple recent form.
Below, find my favorite value British Open DFS picks and longshots for the 2024 British Open. Stats pulled across the Last 36 Rounds unless otherwise noted.
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British Open Course Specs
For a deeper dive into the course, read my British Open preview.
Corey Conners
Royal Troon’s emphasis on control off-the-tee should reward a similar style of play to the 2023 British Open at Hoylake. However, its minuscule greens should place a heightened level of importance on approach play, as the true mid-iron marksmen have a clear path to separate on these grounds. So, if precise ball-striking and proven past performance in difficult all-round, Major-like conditions are the key, it’s hard to ignore Conners’ name this week.
Conners, though still searching for a signature win in his successful career, has surprisingly elevated his baseline in Major championships. Since 2020, he’s piled up seven top-20 finishes as evidence of his versatile all-around game. A poor putter has kept him from winning more regularly on TOUR, but Links golf seems to bring out the best from his flat stick. He’s now gained strokes on the greens in each of his last six starts across the Scottish and British Open. Carrying a staggering streak of 26 consecutive made cuts and three top-10 finishes over his last six starts, Conners brings one of the highest floors of any golfer in the field this week.
Max Homa
Max Homa has had a very bad 2024 season, but reading between the lines, he doesn’t seem to be as lost as the odds indicate. While not exactly known for his prowess in Majors, a career resume that includes wins at Riviera, Quail Hollow, and Torrey Pines suggests that Homa’s game should translate in these demanding all-around conditions. Though he may still be searching for form, Homa’s issues have had more to do with piecing all four aspects of the game together in one week. He’s gained strokes on approach, around-the-green, and putting in eight of his last 11 starts, just not all at once.
Off-the-tee has been more of a concern for Homa lately, but this has been a venue that allows for a more conservative game plan off-the-tee historically. Homa effectively navigated Royal Liverpool this time last year with a T10 finish, the best of his career at that time. With top-10 finishes at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, The Masters, and the Wells Fargo Championship, his price has drifted far enough to chase the long-term upside that comes with his pedigree on TOUR.
Russell Henley
The fallacy I cannot help but fall back on at The Open this year (and potentially every year going forward now) is, “Well, if Brian Harman can win a Major, why can’t this guy?”. The prevailing narrative going into Royal Liverpool last year was that the course could be tamed by those who continued to keep their drives in the fairway, with unpredictable weather setting the stage for more randomness. A similar strategy of pounding fairways into submission should translate well at Royal Troon but with an added premium on elite iron play.
That all sets the table perfectly for a player like Russell Henley, who leads the PGA TOUR in Driving Accuracy this season and ranks top-5 in SG: Approach. Simply put, he’s made a career of separating on courses that place a premium on accurate ball striking. Look no further than his repeatable course history across Waialae CC, Sedgefield CC, and El Camaleon.
His Open history may be lacking, but Royal Troon is far more of a “point-and-shoot” Links course than most that have preceded it. Henley carries great form into this week with seven top-30 finishes over his last 11 starts and has proven up to the task of contending in Majors, with four top-15 Major finishes since 2021.
Matthieu Pavon
When casual golf fans come to me and ask who they should bet on at the 2024 Open Championship, my first recommendation is to throw at least $5 on Matthieu Pavon. I don’t believe we’ve ever seen a player put together this type of season and still be available to bet at upwards of 300-1 odds. In his first year on the PGA TOUR, Pavon burst onto the scene in January with an improbable victory at the Farmers Insurance Open at Torrey Pines. It was a win very few others saw coming, yet not entirely surprising, considering he’d posted six top-15 finishes over his 10 previous starts.
Since then, Pavon has been more boom-or-bust but has still managed to pile up five additional top-15 finishes since January. Impressively, each of those high finishes has come in Signature Events or Majors, proving he is capable of elevating his game on the biggest stages. Pavon was a factor at both The Masters (T12) and U.S. Open (5th) this season, so it would hardly be a surprise to see him contend on the Open links this week. The Frenchman has a good track record on Links courses as well, with three top-20 finishes at the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship over the last five years, including a T6 in his latest appearance.
Shop the best golf odds at sports betting sites for PGA TOUR sleepers and more highly-touted players before betting. Best of luck if you choose to bet on these British Open DFS picks!
2024 BRITISH OPEN ODDS: DFS PLAYER POOL
With all the course-fit profiles in mind, I’m leaning early toward the below player pool. Naturally, I’m looking their way in the 2024 British Open odds as well. I’ve broken the list down by projected pricing/odds tier for DraftKings.