British Open Weather: Open Championship Forecast in Liverpool, Impact On First Round Leader Odds
With The 151st Open Championship being held at Royal Liverpool Golf Club, the risk of weather having an impact on the coastal tournament in England looms large. As we saw at last week’s Scottish Open, part of the task of winning any event in the British Isles requires being able to survive changeable conditions and variable wind. With Hoylake being right on the water, the weather could change considerably between now and the eventual tee times – especially on the weekend – but knowing British Open weather can be a huge advantage at handicapping an Open Championship.
The Hoylake Weather Tower is the best resource to check if you’d like more up to date forecasts during the weekend. Also, make sure you’re using the best sports betting sites and taking advantage of the best sportsbook promo codes this week, to ensure that the Open is as profitable as possible.
Open Championships have been defined by which side of the draw golfers end up on before – the 2016 Open had such a clear wave split that golfers who caught the bad side of it were essentially never in it. The Late Thursday-Early Friday draw produced the top 14 golfers at the end of Round 2, so it can be hugely important.
The weather right now does not project a wide advantage for either wave, but the two lightest times for wind on Thursday and Friday are Thursday morning and Friday afternoon, which means that groups like Spieth-Day-Fitzpatrick, Scheffler-Fleetwood-Scott, and Cantlay-Koepka-Matsuyama project to have a slight advantage at this time. The wind projects to be closer to 10MPH gusts for the majority of their rounds, a manageable task.
If you’re looking at betting players from the afternoon groups, like Rory-Rahm-Rose, Hovland-Finau-Thomas, or Morikawa-Homa-Hatton, the weather does not project to be so penal as to justify second guessing a Late-Early player, but they do project to have more sustained wind during their time on the course. Gusts project to reach 15MPH, especially Friday morning, at which point the difficulty will ramp up.
You can cross reference this British Open weather report with Open Championship tee times.
The best analogue for what this weekend looks like would be the 2018 US Open at Shinnecock, where Daniel Berger and Tony Finau went out early on Saturday, posted a number, and found themselves as the final pairing when the dust settled. The wind looks to be down in the morning on Saturday, and this should allow someone to get in a number before the elements start.
Saturday sees the wind pick up around the middle of the day for a few hours, which might allow a few players to get in before the wind really kicks up. That said, rain is coming in the afternoon as the wind dies down, which could be very key. If it’s a bit a rain, it’s probably preferable to the leaders, but if they’re going to be playing in more downpour conditions, then chasers might be the answer.
Sunday looks to be a repeat of Saturday – higher winds in the morning and early afternoon that die down as the afternoon rolls on, with a little bit of rain forecast. If the rain stays manageable – enough to soften the course a bit, but not enough to impede the players – it could set up incredibly well for the leaders to go low on Sunday.
It’s also worth noting that the heavier the rain Saturday, the easier the course will play Sunday morning, which could be useful to note for DFS single-day contests, round prop bets, or even hole-by-hole betting.
First Round Leader Impact
With how soft Hoylake is playing right now, it’s likely that slightly windier conditions and the traditional impact of play on firmness should help the morning wave for First Round Leader bets, but unless the wind split gets more substantial, it shouldn’t be too important a consideration.
The weather doesn’t appear to be hugely influential right now. There may be pockets of advantage on the course, but in the grand scheme, anyone looking to the weather to divine them answers to who to bet or who to fade won’t likely find it.
Wind gusts up to 15 MPH aren’t nothing, but this isn’t – as of now – a Shinnecock, a Troon, or even a Kiawah 2021, where even though the waves weren’t affected much that whole tournament was overshadowed by the weather. Attempting to try and play “wind specialists” or defaulting to Englishmen because of their experience in adverse conditions could be smart sometimes, but the conditions don’t seem to justify it yet.
Make sure to check back on British Open weather throughout the week, and best of luck on all your Open Championship bets.