British Open Golf Sleepers: 3 PGA TOUR Golfers, 1 European Option
The British Open begins Thursday, July 20 in Hoylake, England. Top names from the PGA TOUR, DP World Tour, and LIV Golf will converge, as Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy open as the co-favorites. Their short odds create opportunities to capitalize on golf sleeper picks in DFS and beyond. John Haslbauer lays out his top longshot picks for British Open odds below.
The fourth and final major of the 2023 season, we head to Hoylake for the 2023 British Open at Royal Liverpool Golf Club. With Oppenheimer set to premiere later this week, this feels like an appropriate time to talk about bombs. While major championships are not always synonymous with randomness or surprises from longshot winners, we’ll see plenty of elite talents drift back to appealing odds as a byproduct of one of the strongest fields in golf.
So many top-heavy names in the field creates a perfect opportunity to capitalize on drastic odds and pricing drops for mid to low-tier players. And with so much randomness in store from the conditions of links golf, it’s a great opportunity to search for high-upside golf sleeper picks. The key skillsets of Total Driving and proven past results on windy links courses are traits that can be found at a discount in this loaded field.
Below we’ll look at potential British Open picks and dig in deep as we look for PGA TOUR sleepers in this week’s golf odds. Click on the odds to bet now.
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Outlasting the British Open tournament itself by three years, Royal Liverpool Golf Club has stood up tremendously to the test of time. With a loaded cast of past Open champions that includes Walter Hagen, Bobby Jones, Tiger Woods, and Rory McIlroy, there’s no question this venue has served the favorites kindly.
As a 7,383-yard par-71, Royal Liverpool is not your traditional positional links course, and if conditions remain soft, it should reward players who can gain on the field in both driving distance and driving accuracy.
Built on the grounds of a former race track, Royal Liverpool Golf Club is perhaps the flattest links course on the open rota. That invites the elements to impact play more so than any other course, as the absence of trees or other obstructions to block the wind will leave players and their caddies to constantly adjust their yardages. While listed at about 7,400 yards, this course’s true yardage can play anywhere between 7,200 to 7,600 depending on the firmness of the fairways and severity of the wind. That should reward well-rounded players who can dynamically adjust their approach throughout a given round to adapt to these elements.
Players with proven links history, top performances in recent majors, and the ability to mitigate misses with driver off-the-tee stand the best chance to attack Royal Liverpool. For a deeper dive into the course, read my British Open preview. Let’s get to our British Open picks with a look at PGA TOUR longshots and sleepers for your golf DFS lineups.
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POTENTIAL Golf Sleeper Picks: The 151st Open Championship
From a golf betting perspective, there are plenty of talented players who’ve drifted beyond the 100-1 odds threshold and are capable of winning a major championship. That’s the product of having so much win equity tied up between Scottie Scheffler and Rory McIlroy, but the randomness of wind’s role in this tournament should help us feel a little more confident about the favorites faltering.
From a DFS perspective, it’s a unique week where the minimum price has dipped to $5,500. That’s a result in part due to Scottie Scheffler’s continued dominance, but it creates a new opportunity to experiment with extreme “stars and scrubs” lineups, or more balanced builds that have a more stable feel to them.
Below is a look at my favorite value leverage plays and longshots for the 2023 British Open! Stats pulled across Last 36 Rounds unless otherwise noted.
Sungjae Im (, $8,300)
This DFS price tag does not typically constitute a “longshot” play, but with Sungjae’s consensus odds drifting beyond the 100-1 mark, there’s no question he’s flying under the radar at Royal Liverpool. His career results on links courses are to blame for that, as his best finish in four tries is a T81. But, I’m willing to take a chance and buy low here on the merit of his talent alone.
In theory, performance on desert-style courses should translate to success on the links. Both types of courses feature firm and fast fairways, unpredictable winds, and an overall premium on control off-the-tee to avoid hazards from fairway runoffs. Sungjae’s best results have come in the desert, with the 25-year-old already picking up four top-10s between the Shriners Open and WM Phoenix Open.
The immediate form has taken a slight step backwards since May, but Sungjae has still looked impressive this year with a total of five top 10s. That includes a T6 at THE PLAYERS, which features the persistent hazards and emphasis on positional tee shots that we’ll see in store at Hoylake. A consistent player off-the-tee and putting all season long, Sungjae is my favorite leverage play in DFS this week, and will be on my outright betting card as well.
Russell Henley (, $7,300)
Russell Henley isn’t exactly the first player that comes to mind when it comes to performance under pressure in majors, but the numbers tell a different story. This year, he’s already delivered impressive results at The Masters (T4) and the U.S. Open (T14). Since 2015, Henley has piled up 12 top-30s over 24 appearances in majors.
That success in the most difficult of conditions, I believe, is a credit to Henley’s ability to avoid trouble. Over the last 36 rounds, Henley ranks No. 1 in Double Bogey Avoidance. That may seem like a very specific and obscure stat, but I actually believe it’s a way to understand the types of players who can identify where the “must avoid” hazards are on the course. Ranking No. 1 in Fairways Gained and No. 12 in SG: APP, Henley has proven to be a marksman in 2023, which should translate well at Royal Liverpool. The No. 10 overall player in my model this week, Henley is one of my favorite values on the board and will be a fixture in my DFS lineups and palcement betting card.
Emiliano Grillo (, $6,500)
When looking for value players this week, Grillo is a perfect example of a discounted player who is elite in the stats that matter most. Grillo has been incredibly consist off the tee this season, a key factor in picking up his victory at the Charles Schwab Challenge earlier this season. He ranks top-20 in both Good Drives Gained and SG: OTT (<7,200 Courses), proving he can position himself well whether with driver or a shorter club off the tee.
Grillo is one of just 26 players in this field to rank above-average in both Driving Distance and Driving Accuracy. Of that group, he’s ne of just 10 other players – and the shortest-priced in DFS – who also rank above-average in SG: APP and Weighted Putting.
Recent results and overall profile aside, Grillo has a solid proven track record on links courses with a pair of T12 finishes since 2016. He’s also shown to be comfortable playing in windy conditions over the course of his career, with some of his best results coming on exposed coastal events like the Puerto Rico Open, Mexico Open, Mayakoba Classic, and Corales Championship.
I’m not convinced Grillo can win a major, but I love the value on his top-20 upside for this price in DFS.
Antoine Rozner (, $5,800)
It’s not every week you get the opportunity to delve into the $5K range on Draft Kings, so I’d be remiss not to talk up my favorite play amongst the bottom of the barrel. Sure, you’ll hear names like Si Woo Kim, Denny McCarthy, Brian Harman, and Chris Kirk pop up as popular value plays this week, and I love their fits this week too, but finding leverage will be that much more important from a DFS perspective. So for that reason, let’s talk about the French bomber.
Rozner got off to a blazing start this season on the DP World Tour with a win at the AfrAsi Bank Mauritus Open and three additional top-10s to follow. He’s cooled off a bit since April, but still boasts an impressive streak of 10 consecutive cuts made leading in.
From a profile standpoint, Rozner possess the elite combination of driving distance and accuracy, as he’s gained across both categories in each of his last four starts. A T4 finish at the 2022 Alfred Dunhill Links Championship also goes to show he can hold his own in these unique conditions. A major victory seems far out of the question, but I see legitimate top-40 upside for Rozner at these extremely discounted price.
Best of luck with your golf sleeper picks and DFS plays for The Open!
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BRITISH OPEN ODDS
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