2022 British Open Betting Card, Final Thoughts

Written By John Haslbauer on July 13, 2022 - Last Updated on July 18, 2022
British Open bets

The last major of the year has arrived as the 2022 British Open now sits just hours away this evening. With this being the last significant golf event until the FedEx Cup Playoffs, I’m excited to soak it all in and pull some all-nighters this weekend. To that end, I’ve finalized British Open bets. 

Just like we saw at last week’s Scottish Open, the weather forecast has been all over the place. So while I expect the elements to play a factor, it’s still too difficult to say whether one wave has a particular advantage over another. Regardless, with the fairways repeatedly baked out, firm and fast, and winds sure to play a factor, I’m weighting short much more heavily now than at the beginning of the week. It seems likely we see a roller coaster of bogeys and birdies in store this week, but I’ll go on a limb to say the winning score hits 15-under par.

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HOW I BUILT MY GOLF BETTING CARD

As always with links golf, we should expect randomness, whether from swells of wind or unexpected bounces on these undulated, firm and fast fairways. So with that in mind, I opted for a longer card, with exposure to one elite player and a volume of mid-tier values to protect against any potential unfavorable weather splits.

The trends would suggest that top-40 players who have picked up a win already in the 2022 season and who have contended within the last month are most likely to contend. I build the outright card with that profile in mind. While distance undoubtedly helps, players will struggle to mask any short-game shortcomings. I’ve built my exposure around players who can confidently get up and down from tight, sloping lies for four days.

For the last major of the year, I’ve bumped up my unit exposure a bit across outrights and props but kept to the same weekly proportions.

  • Outrights – 3.75U in to pay 30U each
  • First-round leader 0.5U in to pay out 10U+
  • Props – 3.75U in to pay out 3.75U+ each

Click on any of the odds below to bet now at the best available price across legal sportsbooks in your state.

BRITISH OPEN BETS: OUTRIGHTS (3.75 UNITS)

Scottie Scheffler

My Bet: +2100

Best Odds Still Available:

I knew my British Open bets would contain one player at sub-25-to-1 odds, but I took a full week of deliberation before landing on my guy. Two weeks ago before the Scottish Open, it would have been inconceivable to find a 20-to-1 posting for the world No. 1 at the Open Championship. But a win from Xander Schauffele and MC from Scheffler quickly flipped the script. I’ll happily overlook two rounds of poor short game in what may have simply been a tune-up effort if it means reaping the benefits of better odds.

It may go without saying when betting the No. 1 player in the world, but he checks every box I’m looking for this week. You can’t question the form with four wins this PGA TOUR season and two runner-up finishes over his last five starts. Beyond the Scottish Open blemish, Scheffler picked up wins at the Masters and in desert conditions at the WM Phoenix Open. Those represent two of the better comps for projecting St. Andrews. He already won in Scottsdale, so it only seems right that he follow up last year’s T8 at the Open with a win in Scotland.

Sam Burns

My Bet: +5500

Best Odds Still Available:

I wrote up Burns earlier this week as my spotlight feature. With wind forecasts having not picked up much since the beginning of the week, it looks like all systems go for the two-time 2022 winner. The Old Course plays too firmly to be considered a pure birdie-fest, but low winds would mean an easier script for longer hitters to play aggressively. Burns should thrive in such a scenario. It’s not just the distance that has me optimistic about Burns’ chances though. He has quickly risen up the ranks of elite putters this 2022 season. Burns ranks No. 3 SG: P over the last 36 rounds, including top 30 in both SG: P 25+ Ft and 3-Putt Avoidance, so he sets up well on a course that will be decided on the greens.

Tony Finau

My Bet: +6000

Best Odds Still Available:

The highest player from my model to make it onto my British Open bets this week. Finau fell just behind Justin Thomas to land No. 2 overall. He brings a perfect profile to St. Andrews, as he’s thrived historically at the Open Championship (No. 3 in Event History), and enters in excellent current form (top 10 SG: T2G L36 rounds). The putter has held Finau back from picking up a win in 2022, but he’s started to turn a corner, having gained strokes on the greens in four of his last six events. On larger greens, Finau should have a leg up on the field, as he ranks top 20 in 3-Putt Avoidance and top five in SG: P 25+ Ft.

Sungjae Im

My Bet: +8500

Best Odds Still Available:

As a lighter, discounted version of Scottie Scheffler, I like Sungjae Im for the same reasons. Im is another crafty short game specialist who thrives in conditions with tight lies around the greens. Although he has just one prior start at the Open, he ranks top five in the field in Comp PGA TOUR Course History, including a win at the Shriners and T8 at the Masters this year. Im has the all-around game to contend in a major, and slightly easier conditions this time around might get him to first career major championship.

Max Homa

My Bet: +9000

Best Odds Still Available:

At 90-to-1 during last week’s Scottish Open, I locked up a play on Homa early. The number has appropriately correct to about half the number. Like Burns, Homa has also won twice this year. He brings growing confidence and a chip on his shoulder, hoping to earn a President’s Cup nomination. Homa’s straight, low and long ball flight off the tee should thrive on a linear, firm set-up like The Old Course. I still consider Homa in play at as short as 50-to-1 odds.

Gary Woodland

My Bet: +14000

Best Odds Still Available:

I placed this after round one of the Scottish Open. While he did little in the three rounds since to back up the selection, I still feel encouraged that he flashed signs of going low in links conditions recently. The putter remains a concern that’s growing increasingly difficult to mask, but Woodland’s ball striking clearly passes the eye test to find success at St. Andrews.

Victor Perez

My Bet: +15000

Best Odds Still Available:

Like with Gary Woodland, this future has remained in neutral since placement a few weeks ago. Perez displayed the worst Scottish Open performance of his career last week, so we can only hope his mind was elsewhere, looking ahead to Open Championship prep. Perez still holds the combination of recent form (winning on the DP World Tour five starts ago) and course history (winning the 2019 Alfred Dunhill Links Championship at St. Andrews) to make the 150-to-1 odds appealing.

Webb Simpson

My Bet: +16000

Best Odds Still Available:

I lack a ton of data to back up Simpson’s prospects at this week’s major championship. But I had room for one last bomb, and Simpson just fits my eye test. If Zach Johnson could take down bombers like Rory McIlroy, Jason Day and Dustin Johnson in 2015, then Webb Simpson — U.S. Open and PLAYERS champion – can do the same. He seems to be on the good side of injury and has now posted three top-30 finishes over his last five starts, including a T20 at the PGA Championship.

BRITISH OPEN FIRST-ROUND LEADER (0.5 UNITS)

Seamus Power

My Bet: +8000

Best Odds Still Available:

I have no exposure elsewhere to Seamus Power, but this is simply a value bet on a player who has proven can go low. Power enters in great form with five top-30 finishes over his last six starts, and has finished no worse than T30 in the first three majors of the 2022 season.

Cameron Young

My Bet: +9000

Best Odds Still Available:

You never know what you’re going to get with Cameron Young these days. While I have cold feet to roster him in DFS, the man still has boom potential with three top-three finishes over his last six starts.

Lucas Herbert

My Bet: +10000

Best Odds Still Available:

No FRL card is complete without exposure to a few bombers who can putt well, as that formula will get ample eagle looks for aggressive players in a given round. Herbert’s already won twice on the DP World Tour since 2020. Coupled that with his win at the Bermuda Championship earlier this season, and he should be accustomed to the terrain and windy conditions.

Joohyung Kim

My Bet: +11000

Best Odds Still Available: +10000

The young phenom continues to turn heads after another standout T3 performance at last week’s Scottish Open. He passed the links test last week, so I’ll roll the dice at long odds that he can keep the momentum going for one more round in Scotland.

Sebastian Munoz

My Bet: +12500

Best Odds Still Available:

Munoz finally got some rest last week after his streak of a dozen straight made cuts ended at the Scottish Open. This week, in what should be easier conditions, Munoz should flex his birdie-making ability on Thursday.

Mackenzie Hughes

My Bet: +16000

Best Odds Still Available:

You must hit some long putts if you’re going to build an early lead at St. Andrews. Nobody is better equipped to string together a streak of bombs on the green than Mackenzie Hughes.

BRITISH OPEN BETS: PROPS (3.75 UNITS)

Top-20 Finish: Tony Finau

My Bet: +190

Best Odds Still Available:

I understand that we’re looking at a loaded field of all the best players on the planet. But these odds still feel too long for the placement king himself. In five career starts at the Open, Finau has finished outside the top 20 just once (a T27 in 2017). Combine with the fact he’s finished top 15 in three of his last four starts, and it seems more likely than not that Finau lands himself inside the top 20 once again, especially on a course that suits him as well as St. Andrews.

Top-40 Finish: Mackenzie Hughes

My Bet: +250

Best Odds Still Available:

This isn’t a sexy play. Hughes’ ceiling looks pretty capped out around a T20, but he’s started to make a living just inside the top 40. Prior to the Scottish Open, he’d entered with four consecutive top-40 finishes. In one prior appearances at the 2021 Open Championship, he finished T6. He’s proven to get up for big moments in his career too, as he’s finished top 40 in four of his last seven major appearances since 2021.

Top-20 Finish: Webb Simpson

My Bet: +500

Best Odds Still Available:

I’m happy to take a stance higher on Simpson than the market this week. The more conditions pick up and relegate this to a short-game contest, the more I like his chances. The severely firm and burnt out fairways should also help him narrow the gap he typically secedes to the field in distance off the tee. If the irons click, he can lean on his experience to maneuver himself into contention.

Top-20 Finish: Chris Kirk

My Bet: +600

Best Odds Still Available:

I stopped short of betting Kirk outright considering he’s still chasing his first PGA TOUR win since 2015. But his stats in my model this week definitely made me contemplate it. Kirk rated out No. 24 in that model, with top-30 ranks in SG: OTT, Comp Course History, Birdies or Better Gained, 3-Putt Avoidance, SG: T2G and Par-4 Scoring. It’ll be interesting to see how those stats translate in a major. But it’s encouraging that he already has one top-20 finish at the Open under his belt over three prior appearances.

ONE AND DONE

My Pick: Scottie Scheffler

I was left for dead in OAD before the Scottish Open last week, but we’ve found new life crawling towards the cash line after Schauffele’s victory. Looking to maintain the hot hand, we turn to the world No. 1 on a course which should perfectly suit his game of creative shot-making and crafty touch around the greens.

If not Scheffler, I would also consider Tony Finau, Tommy Fleetwood or Jordan Spieth.

BRITISH OPEN BETS: THE CARD

That’ll do it for my 2022 British Open bets. Best of luck this week with your own golf betting. See you on Sunday for the 2022 3M Open preview.

John Haslbauer Avatar
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John Haslbauer

John Haslbauer writes about golf betting and advanced golf metrics for TheLines.com. He is a passionate golf fan, golf writer, and (casual) golfer. A graduate at Syracuse University, John works out of Jersey City as a Director of Media Strategy for HBO and HBO Max. He created the website thepgatout.com at the start of 2021 and is active on Twitter (@PGATout). No, he is not a tout. The Twitter handle is a joke. Touts are lame. We hate touts.

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