2023 British Open & Barracuda Championship Bets: Final Thoughts, Golf Betting Card, One And Done

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Written By John Haslbauer | Last Updated
british open bets

The time has come for the fourth and final major championship of the year, as we are just hours away from 2023 British Open bets going live at Royal Liverpool Golf Club. It’s never easy predicting results or Hoylake weather forecasts with great certainty. That’s the nature of links golf betting, but reports from the grounds have begun to tell a clearer story of what we should expect. This tournament will be all about keeping your ball in play, avoiding hazards, mastering intermittent winds, and standing up to continuously nervy shots down a climactic closing stretch of golf.

Ahead we’ll run through all of my bets for the 2023 British Open, as well as a smaller outright card for the Barracuda Championship opposite field event.


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Royal Liverpool is not the most demanding major venue, in fact it’s expected to have the easiest scoring average of any of the four majors this year. But, its persistence of internal out-of-bounds, lush fescue, penal fairway pot bunkers, and gorse bushes have made me hone in on the players who are most in control of their driver. And with rainier, softer conditions than past British Opens, there should more of an emphasis shifted to accuracy with the driver, as players will not get the same rollout on layups off the tee.

That has led me to a very specific profile of accurate drivers with proven results in majors. As it turns out, there are not many of them, so my outright card is much tighter than I otherwise might have expected. The weather has turned Royal Liverpool into a softer course than expected at the start of the week, which will bait players into using driver more often and taking on more aggressive lines off the tee. Without seeing much of a weather wave advantage, I’ll adjust my prediction for the winning score to fall at -13.

In terms of unit allocations for my card this week, it’s back to business as usual for my weekly PGA TOUR exposure, with a bonus outright card for the opposite field event at the Barbasol Championship:

  • Outrights (Barracuda) – 3U in to pay 24U each
  • Outrights (British) – 3.75U in to pay 30U each
  • FRL (British) – 1U in to pay out 15U+ each
  • Props (British) – 4U in to pay out 4U+ each

Click on any of the British Open odds below for the best available prices across sportsbooks in your state. We also have Open Championship tee times and the British Open TV schedule.


I always skip betting the Barracuda Championship, played under an entirely different Stableford scoring system which seems impossible to glean any actionable insights off of past results. But, I’ve managed to land on the winner in two of the first three opposite-field events this season, so I think it makes sense to keep the momentum going after cashing in on Vincent Norrman’s Barbasol Championship win last week. I also spent some time in the Lake Tahoe area last month, so I’m feeling especially connected to this course and tournament.

The Barracuda Championship, held at Tahoe Mountain Club, is a 7,480-yard par-71, but plays at elevation, making the true yardage much shorter. That’s mitigated the advantage for length off the tee, as past winners like Chez Reavie, Collin Morikawa, and Richie Werenski have proven in the past. Instead, I’ve looked to hone in on players who excel in Driving Accuracy, SG: APP, Birdies or Better Gained, and SG: Putting.

Keith Mitchell

My Bet: +2000
Best Available Odds:

Keith Mitchell could have stayed across the pond after his missed cut at the Scottish Open last week and taken a chance as the fourth alternate at the British Open. Instead, he caught a 17-hour flight back to Lake Tahoe. If nothing else, that tells me he is motivated to find his first win since 2019 in a field he has opened as the co-favorite in. Mitchell is the best driver in this field and in recent weeks has displayed the spike approach and putting upside needed to score in this unique format.

Chez Reavie

My Bet: +4000
Best Available Odds

Reavie has done nothing but elevate his level of play since winning the 2022 Barracuda Championship. Playing at elevation, this course has helped mitigate what would otherwise be a distance disadvantage to the field. In a mini model of Fairways Gained, SG: APP, Birdies or Better Gained, and SG: P, Reavie rated out No. 1, so 40-1 odds for a repeat seems like a great value to me.

Justin Suh

My Bet: +4000
Best Available Odds

Stableford scoring can effectively boil down to a putting contest, and if that’s the case, there are few more reliable on the greens in this field than Suh. He’s gained on the greens in every start since the Honda Classic with three top-20s over that span. A bit of a homecoming back to California, it would feel appropriate for Suh to pick up his first career win at the same tournament his pal Collin Morikawa did.

Akshay Bhatia

My Bet: +5000
Best Available Odds

I bet Akshay Bhatia at half these odds at last week’s Barbasol Championship so I don’t see any reason to hop off now after a solid T9 showing. Bhatia shines in easy scoring conditions, and is one of the most lethal approach players in this field, gaining 5+ strokes on approach three times over his last eight starts.

Carson Young

My Bet: +10000
Best Available Odds

When it comes to birdie fests, Carson Young’s name will always be one of the first ones that comes to mind. I love the value on this number, as young leads the field in Birdies or Better Gained and has shown solid form five top-20s over his last 10 starts.


Jon Rahm

My Bet: +1400
Best Available Odds:

I toiled over this decision throughout the week, but ultimately my stance at Royal Liverpool Golf Club is that it is going to take a player who’s handled the nerves of closing out a major championship to seal the deal down the closing stretch. In the end, it’s that anecdotal quality that pushed me over in favor of Rahm over other options like Patrick Cantlay, Viktor Hovland, and even Collin Morikawa, who’s struggled to close out a tournament since the 2021 Open.

Overshadowed by Rory and Scottie’s recent hot play, the atmosphere leading into this week feels eerily similar to that of the 2023 Masters. Despite being the only player amongst favorites to have won a major this season, Rahm is once again the third favorite, and this time you can find him at double the odds of both Scheffler and McIlroy. He looked dreadful at the WGC Match Play in his final start before The Masters, so I’m not concerned by his early exit at The Travelers, a tournament which largely takes his biggest asset of driver and long irons out of his hands.

If total driving is as paramount as I expect it to be, Rahm’s skillsets set him up well to hit away from the “must avoid” areas of this golf course, whether it be internal OB or fairway pot bunkers. The current frontrunner for Player of the Year, Rahm has gained strokes off-the-tee all but once this season. He rates out No. 2 in my model this week, with top-5 rankings in all the important stats of Major History, SG: APP, Prox: 200+, Par-5: 600+, SG: P (Slow Greens), SG: T2G, and SG: Ball Striking. I can already see the press tour headlines if Wimbledon and The Open both conclude with Spanish champions.

Brooks Koepka

My Bet: +2500
Best Available Odds

Part of the reason I struggled for so long to make a decision at the top of the board, is because I’ve grown so fixated on the reality that Hoylake sets up so perfectly for Brooks’ game. I probably spent more time creating cases for why this course suits Koepka so perfectly in the spotlight feature of my tournament preview article than any player since Kevin Kisner at the Wyndham Championship.

Similar to Rahm, I don’t feel worried about Koepka’s ability to handle high pressure tee shots down the demanding finishing holes of this golf course. Koepka also plays a predominantly straight and piercing ball on both his drives and approach shots, which should give him a leg up on the field in such a linear design at Royal Liverpool.

With Rickie Elliot on the bag, years of European links experience from his days on the Challenge Tour, and a resume of four prior top-10s in this event, I have no concerns about the American’s fit for a European links course that places such an emphasis on controlled driving and long iron play.

Hideki Matsuyama

My Bet: +12500
Best Available Odds

There is not a golf course in the world you could dissuade me from betting Hideki Matsuyama to win at odds this long. And regardless of what I see as a major misprice among British Open bets, I actually suspect this set up to suit Matsuyama’s elite ball-striking and touch around the greens well.

The 2021 Masters champion also checks the box as a proven major champion who won’t be overwhelmed by the gravity of the moment coming down the closing stretch. And while his British Open experience is mixed, three career top-20s is all the encouragement I need.

The No. 7 player in my model, I’m surprised to see his number drift in this direction on the odds board throughout the week. He ranks top-10 in Major History, SG: APP, Bogey Avoidance, SG: T2G, and Par-5: 600+. We always have to monitor Hideki’s health, but a stretch of eight top-30s over his last nine starts has me feeling very content with the current state of his game.

Sungjae Im

My Bet: +12500
Best Available Odds:

Unlike Matsuyama, this is entirely a value bet on a player who is simply too talented to have drifted into triple-digit odds. With three finishes inside the top-16 at The Masters, Sungjae has shown he’s capable of stepping up on golf’s biggest stages. His British Open history is bad, and there’s no way to sugarcoat that, but his prowess on desert-style golf courses continues to give me hope that Sungjae is due to turnaround better results on the links.

Im has already picked up four top-10s between the Shriners Open and WM Phoenix Open, two firm courses that reward accurate driving to avoid runoffs into its many hazards neighboring the fairways. TPC Sawgrass may prove to have the most overlap with players who’ve had success at Royal Liverpool in the past, and he shined there as well with a T6 showing earlier this season.

I don’t believe Sungjae’s form is as lost as others do, so with a pair of top-30s over his last three starts, I’ll buy low on the talent here, expecting inevitably better results for my British Open bets to follow soon.


Justin Rose

My Bet: +6000
Best Available Odds:

Justin Rose is always a popular consideration to lead the first round of a major, as he’s primarly known for getting off to a hot start at the Masters. I love Rose’s fit for Royal Liverpool, and while I ultimately did not have room to fit him in on my top-heavy outright card, I would not be surprised at all to see him lift the Claret Jug at the end of this week. As a compromise, I’ll be here to cheer him on through the wee hours of Thursday morning.

Corey Conners

My Bet: +7500
Best Available Odds

Similar to Rose, Conners is a player who I believe has all the tools to score well at Royal Liverpool, I just have some concerns about his ability to close out a major championship. That creates the perfect set up for a first round leader bet though. Conners’ putting stats on slow greens are encouraging enough for me to expect a good overall showing at Hoylake.

Russell Henley

My Bet: +8000
Best Available Odds

No Rai, no Munoz, so step three on the “FRL auto-bet” flowchart brings us to Russell Henley at 80-1 odds or beyond. Henley falls into a popular category for me this week of elite course fits who lack the killer instinct to close out a high-pressure major. I expect Henley’s game to translate very well at Hoylake, and won’t be shocked to see him jump out to a hot start.

Keegan Bradley

My Bet: +8000
Best Available Odds

All of the same words above for Russell Henley also apply to Keegan Bradley when he eclipses the 80-1 odds mark, so they’re a package deal for me in the FRL market this week, as they have been many times before. Keegan nearly pulled through far us as First Round Leader at The Travelers before a torrent closing burst from Denny McCarthy. With a win and a top-20 in his last two starts, we should feel confident about Keegan’s form coming in as he continues to play motivated for a Ryder Cup team selection.

Si Woo Kim

My Bet: +9000
Best Available Odds

You never know what you’re going to get with Si Woo, and that erratic play has ultimately given me pause that he can contend for four days on this course. But, as one of the most aggressive players in the sport who’s thrived on positional courses that reward accuracy with the driver, a first round leader bet makes sense for the South Korean. A T4 finished three starts ago at the Memorial Tournament, Kim has shown form recently, and the ability to go low in tough scoring conditions.


Top-10 Finish: Brooks Koepka

My Bet: +225
Best Available Odds:

Backing up an outright bet with a top-10 selection is usually a telltale sign of my utmost confidence in a player. Whether it be the current form, the course fit, the past results in links golf, the motivation to rack up more majors, or simply the anecdotal mental toughness to handle this challenging gauntlet, I’m out of reasons to justify how Koepka does not land himself in contention come the end of this week.

Top-20 Finish: Corey Conners

My Bet: +280
Best Available Odds: 

With five top-20s over his last seven starts, Corey Conners and his steady ball-striking enters this week with one of the highest floors for a player in this section of the odds board. Conners has six career top-20 finishes in majors, and has finished T28 and T15 in has last two appearances at the British Open. Of course, there’s room for concern about Conner’s putter, however he ranks top-20 in both SG: P (Slow Greens) and 3-putt Avoidance, an encouraging sign for the greens in store at Royal Liverpool.

Top-20 Finish: Russell Henley

My Bet: +320
Best Available Odds: 

The No. 10 player in my model this week, Henley presents the greatest upside compared to his price of any player in this week’s field, according to my course research. That creates some very appealing value at +320 for this placement bet. Henley leads the field in Driving Accuracy and Double Bogey Avoidance, which proves to me that he is capable of identifying trouble off the tee, and avoiding it to set up consistent scoring opportunities.

Top Asian Player: Hideki Matsuyama

My Bet: +490
Best Available Odds:

Tom Kim is the favorite in this market, which I believe is a severe over-reaction to a short-term heater. Matsuyama is the only Asian player in this field who’s proven capable of converting a major championship, so I’ll side with Matsuyama’s mental fortitude under pressure over the likes of Tom Kim, Si Woo Kim, Sungjae Im, Byeong Hun An, and KH Lee.


My Pick: Rickie Fowler

Fowler is a process of elimination play for me in OAD this week, as I’ve exhausted all of my favorite options for this tournament earlier in the season. Still, having Fowler at my disposal at this juncture of the season is not a bad place to be. A runner at Hoylake in 2014 with five top-20s over his last six events, Fowler’s floor seems to be very high leading in.

If not Fowler, I would also consider Brooks Koepka, Hideki Matsuyama, or Justin Rose as OAD picks.


That’ll do it for this week’s British Open bets. Best of luck this week with your own British Open bets, and see you on Sunday for the 3M Open! For more, follow TheLines on Twitter.

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