British Grand Prix Odds: Time To Bet Against Max Verstappen

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Written By Evan Scrimshaw | Last Updated
british grand prix odds

After the Austrian Grand Prix ended in a shocking win by George Russell, Formula 1 decamps to Silverstone for one of the best Grand Prix events of the season. British Grand Prix week has been kickstarted by the British Russell coming in off of a win. The fallout from the Max Verstappen-Lando Norris collision that gave George Russell his second-career victory has British Grand Prix odds all scrambled.

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2024 British Grand Prix Odds


Lando Norris should win. Norris almost caught Max in Imola, got unlucky with a safety car in Canada, had the fastest car in Spain but botched the start, and then forgot how to drive against Max in Austria. At some point, the excuses become less valid and more pathetic. He needs to win. When the McLaren car was good and not great, his propensity for not quite nailing the high-leverage moments could be forgiven. Now? It’s imperative he wins this.

He talked about a title challenge in a Telegraph interview that came out before Austria. If he’s in a title challenge, this has to be the track to prove it. The Ferraris are nowhere, Mercedes will struggle with the track layout, and Red Bull don’t seem to know what it’s doing these days. Given Checo Perez’s recent run of form, it’s highly likely McLaren will be able to use Oscar Piastri as a strategic option to mess with Red Bull. I actively despise Lando, but come on. This is, unfortunately, a McLaren smash spot.


If this is not a Lando-Max-Oscar podium, I’ll be genuinely shocked.

Yes, Lewis Hamilton has a record 14 podiums at Silverstone, including 11 straight podiums. That said, he’s unable to outqualify George Russell in the other Mercedes and that has meant that he’s on the back foot too often. Mercedes should take a step back this weekend too. Still probably the third fastest car, a 4th is the upper limit of their possible range unless there’s more DNFs ahead. Mercedes’ car suits tracks with more slow corners, which is why Montreal saw them in the fight for the win. It’s why I’ll be betting both Lewis and George to win in Hungary as soon as the odds drop after Silverstone, but that’s not going to help this week.

I don’t think Ferrari will suffer the same indignity this year of getting passed by Alex Albon in a Williams on true pace. They’re not fast right now. They struggled with set-up in Austria, stuck in no man’s land between maximizing Quali pace or focusing on the race. Their Imola upgrade delivered that masterful Monaco win, but otherwise has been mediocre. And fundamentally, Mercedes passed them in development. Even though Silverstone is on paper more friendly to the Ferrari construct, they’ll be lucky for a 5th place finish. Splitting the Mercedes is probably the best they can ask for.

Best Of The Rest

We can’t go back to old reliable Pierre Gasly, who is taking an extra new engine and power unit and, therefore, starting at the back of the grid. Given that he’ll have a faster car but start behind, I’m looking to bet Gasly head-to-head against Visa Cash App RB and Sauber drivers, plus Haas’ Kevin Magnussen. This could be a lucrative market. His Alpine teammate Esteban Ocon is a good bet to get my money for a points finish as well.

Alex Albon managed to pass two Ferraris on true pace last year, but the midfield is more competitive this year. I’ll still take a shot on the British-born Albon this year for both Q3 appearance and a points finish, especially with Gasly’s penalties freeing up a spot and Fernando Alonso putting up a Rishi Sunak-esque run of form recently.

2024 British Grand Prix Odds Qualifying

Max Verstappen showed a bigger gap to the cars behind in Qualifying in Austria, putting up gaps of multiple tenths in both sprint and normal qualifying. Especially around the quick lap time of Austria, Max was dominant in qualifying last week. That said, it’s unlikely to be this simple this weekend. McLaren qualified 2-3 for the sprint and was on for another 2-3 qualification in Austria before track limits knocked Oscar Piastri back to 7th. And Silverstone was the McLaren coming out party of 2023.

McLaren managed a 2-3 qualifying here last year when their car was still significantly slower than the Red Bull. Now, in roughly equal machinery, the McLaren should shine here. Fast corners, mostly flat-out driving, and only two DRS zones should make for a solid weekend for McLaren. With Lando Norris getting some potential boost from driving in front of his home fans, this has to be their weekend.

Rest Of The Field

The other reason it really needs to be a McLaren pole position is that the rest of the field looks weak. Red Bull has an upgrade package this weekend, but their upgrade packages so far this season have failed to realize significant gains. Mercedes, despite winning in Austria, have tended to set their cars up more for race pace than single-lap speed. And Ferrari doesn’t seem to know why it’s slow or how to fix it, having failed to come in the Top 4 on true merit since Monaco.

Let’s be real here – if Lando Norris is who we are told he is, he should put this on the pole. If he is the driver the pundits and the (overwhelmingly British) commentators claim he is, this is his weekend to prove it. Unless this Red Bull upgrade really clicks, there’s no reason to think McLaren doesn’t have the fastest car. The track suits the McLaren more than it suits the Red Bull, and McLaren tends to do better at low fuel levels. If Lando Norris is who we think he is, he has to win. If not, we can’t let him off the hook.

Oscar Piastri in the other McLaren is a strong Top 3 in Qualifying bet as well, given the overwhelming strength of the McLaren.

Best of luck betting British Grand Prix odds!

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