2023 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Horse Racing Betting: First Look At 150th KY Derby Prospects
Take one last look at the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile field just before the 6:40 p.m. ET post on Friday at Santa Anita. Once the winner crosses the wire, the next hot Kentucky Derby contender will be a relative unknown no longer. The champion in this field of 11 going 1 1/16 miles will become the publicity magnet for the 2024 Road to the Kentucky Derby campaign, just as Forte did after seizing this race last year.
This $2 million assembly of the nation’s top 2-year-olds highlights a tremendous five-race program of Breeders’ Cup odds for Future Stars Friday. New users at FanDuel Racing get a No Sweat First Bet! Click PLAY NOW to get started. Plus, join our free contest. Scroll to the bottom to find it.
2023 Breeders’ Cup juvenile field: morning line odds
Here’s a look at the field, including the jockeys and trainers, from the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile draw. Odds won’t be official until post-time, per pari-mutuel rules.
|1||The Wine Steward||SCRATCHED||Mike Maker||Luis Saez|
|2||Prince of Moncao||4-1||Bob Baffert||Flavien Prat|
|3||Wine Me Up||15-1||Bob Baffert||Ramon Vazquez|
|4||Timberlake||4-1||Brad Cox||Florent Geroux|
|5||Ecoro Neo||SCRATCHED||Hideyuki Mori||Yuga Kawada|
|6||Locked||7-2||Todd Pletcher||Jose Ortiz|
|7||Cuban Thunder||30-1||Adrian Murray||Tiago Pereira|
|8||General Partner||8-1||Chad Brown||Manny Franco|
|9||Fierceness||6-1||Todd Pletcher||John Velazquez|
|10||Muth||4-1||Bob Baffert||Juan Hernandez|
|11||Noted||20-1||Todd Pletcher||Irad Ortiz Jr.|
1. The Wine Steward (8-1)
Love the bloodline to Vino Rosso, the 2019 Breeders’ Cup Classic champion.
Handled first jump to 1 1-16 miles nicely at the Breeders’ Cup Futurity, waging a strong duel with 3-5 favorite Locked before giving way at the wire. It’s a rematch. He had the rail then, was taken back and smartly guided through horses. Has the rail again. Belongs, contender. He may have a longer price because Locked had a tough trip and still nudged him.
2. Prince of Monaco (4-1)
Lovely progression. Victories at five, six, and seven furlongs, the last at 1-9 betting odds in the Del Mar Futurity. Must stretch a little more than a furlong this time, but has been brought along nicely.
Had an eye-opening 103 Beyer, tops in this field, at a sprint distance of 6 furlongs. Yowza, what if he can stretch? Substantial improvement arcs each time out. Coming out of sprint races, would figure to be a factor on the lead.
Trainer Bob Baffert considers him the fastest of his two-year-old group entered here and believes the horse has done nothing in morning workouts to suggest he can’t go the distance. Expected improvement should keep his odds from going too high. Bloodline to Speightstown, a sprinter, will keep them from going too low.
3. Wine Me Up (15-1)
Will be a speed factor. Had an un-pressured lead throughout the American Pharoah before Muth, whom he’ll face here, shot by him to win by four lengths. There is a lot of promise for this horse. That was only his second start, and already he’s gone the Juvenile distance over the host track.
Going to be very good. But must beat Muth, among others, to get it done. Speed, could stay in the ticket.
4. Timberlake (4-1)
Much to like about his Champagne Stakes victory in the slop in New York. Trailed a blistering pace set by General Partner and outgunned him to win by four widening lengths. Adjustments here include an expected fast track, not slop, and the need to go two turns for the first time. He also has to ship. On the plus side for his running style, he could be tracking a hot pace. Brad Cox has a good one.
5. Ecoro Neo (15-1)
Curious placement. He was second in six-furlong pro debut. Must overcome numerous factors, including distance, improved opposition, and the need to ship. Doesn’t look like his spot.
6. Locked (7-2)
And loaded. Overcame wide trip to circle the entire field and nip The Wine Steward in the Breeders Cup Futurity. If Jose Ortiz can prevent him from being stuck behind horses, he can benefit from a better journey. Has a race-high distance Beyer speed figure of 96. Live, makes sense. Faces rivals that have run on this track.
7. Cuban Thunder (30-1)
European invader looks out of place here. Four turf races followed by an effort on synthetic, where he did not win. After winning maiden debut is 0-for-4. Does not fit the profile of a winner here. Would not be shocked if he was a late scratch or was put in a different race.
8. General Partner (8-1)
Great effort in the Champagne. Had an uncontested lead at 45.44 in the slop but could not hold off Timberlake. Finished a gallant second. Like Timberlake, must stretch to 1 1/16 miles, meaning two turns. His progression has been strong so far. Will figure him to be a speed factor, but the pace could be contentious. Stays on the board if he can avoid a wicked duel.
9. Fierceness (6-1)
Bettors may give him a mulligan after a bobbling start in the Champagne was followed by a rush up to the lead. He flattened out and was nowhere near the winners, finishing seventh at 1-2 betting odds.
Has run once in the mud, once on slop. Now, he figures to get a fast track. Does have a 95 past Beyer at 6 furlongs. Gamblers may give him an excuse for the last. Skeptics will think he still has to prove something in a field this good.
10. Muth (4-1)
Have to love the manner in which he stalked and captured the American Pharoah. It’s a win at this distance over the host track for the race. Baffert’s horses love California.
On the flip side, he won a $300,000 race. Locked prevailed in a $600,000 competition. Which means more, class or the home track?
11. Noted (20-1)
Nice horse who can run well on turf or dirt. Has a $100,000 victory on dirt and a Grade 2 runner-up finish on turf. Makes major step up and could find himself outgunned, but will run hard.
He could surprise on the bottom of some exotics tickets, but does not look like the winner.
How I am betting Breeders’ Cup juvenile odds
Tricky considerations. Does speed defy pedigree?
The first wave centers on Muth, the No. 10 horse. He has the fastest time at this distance, 1:42.45, compared to Locked at 1:44.62. Santa Anita plays fast, and I think Locked improves on his time, but maybe not by two seconds.
Win bet: $10 to win and place on the No. 10 (Muth)
Exotic Bets (Amounts Determined On Saturday)
10-6 (Muth and Locked): the class
10-2: a hunch that Prince of Monaco stretches
50-cent trifecta key: No. 10 with 1,2,3,6 first and second. Cost is $12 per ticket
10-cent superfecta key: No. 10 with 1,2,3,4,6 first and second. $12.
Cover Bet Thoughts
Win bet No. 2 (Prince of Monaco)
Win bet on No. 6 Locked, just in case he’s that good
50-cent trifecta box: 2-4-6-10: in case Timberlake likes the track.
Good luck. This is a great field of two-year-olds, suggesting an above-average crop for the 2024 Road to the Kentucky Derby. Good luck, I hope you hit Breeders’ Cup Juvenile odds this year!
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