Breeders’ Cup Classic Odds: ‘Tiz The Law’ And ‘Improbable’ Headline Loaded Field

Written By FairwayJay on November 5, 2020

A most unusual year in sports includes the 2020 Breeders’ Cup at Keeneland Race Course in Lexington, KY. The 37th edition of the Breeders’ Cup World Championships features ‘Future Stars Friday’ for the third straight year, showcasing 2-year-olds in five races highlighted by the TVG Juvenile in Race 10. Saturday, Nov. 7 is the biggest day in horse racing with the Sport of Kings showcasing nine Breeders’ Cup races headlined by the Longines Breeders’ Cup Classic in Race 12.

Post time for the Classic is approximately 5:13 p.m. ET and NBC carries the TV coverage of the Classic along with the Breeders’ Cup Sprint in Race 8, FanDuel Mile in Race 9, Longines Distaff in Race 10 and Longines Turf in Race 11. NBCSN televises the earlier Breeder’s Cup races along with TVG.

A total of 10 runners are lined up for a competitive 2020 Breeders’ Cup Classic, including the top two finishers from the 2020 Kentucky Derby in September, Authentic (6/1) and Tiz the Law (3/1). Tiz the Law won this year’s Belmont Stakes and Travers. But two major contenders are 4-year-olds Maximum Security (7/2) and morning line favorite Improbable (5/2), who both ran in the 2019 Kentucky Derby. Those two along with Authentic are trained by Bob Baffert.

Maximum Security was disqualified in the controversial Kentucky Derby after crossing the finish line first as the slight second favorite, while post time favorite Improbable finished fourth. Also, Tacitus (3rd) and By My Standards (11th) also ran in the 2019 Kentucky Derby and are looking to add to their standing with a major win in the 2020 Breeders’ Cup Classic.

Be sure to check out TheLines Breeders’ Cup betting guide that includes all 14 races with post positions, odds, race insights and betting strategy.

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Breeders’ Cup Classic odds

PostFieldOpening OddsJockeyTrainer
1Tacitus20/1 (Bet Here)Jose OrtizBill Mott
2Tiz the Law3/1 (Bet Here)Manny FrancoBarlay Tagg
3By My Standards10/1 (Bet Here)Gabriel SaezW. Bret Calhoun
4Tom's D'Etat6/1 (Bet Here)Joel RosarioAlbert Stall, Jr.
5Title Ready30/1 (Bet Here)Corey LanerieDallas Stewart
6Higher Power20/1 (Bet Here)Flavien PratJohn Sadler
7Global Campaign20/1 (Bet Here)Javier CastellanoStanley Hough
8Improbable5/2 (Bet Here)Irad Ortiz, JrBob Baffert
9Authentic6/1 (Bet Here)John VelazquezBob Baffert
10Maximum Security7/2 (Bet Here)Luis SaezBob Baffert

Breeders’ Cup Classic field and analysis

TheLines has outlined the 1 ¼ mile Classic and provided insight on the horses with added information you can bet on from Horse Racing Nation’s Super Screener for the 2020 Breeders’ Cup Classic. Key races to handicap and reconstruct in evaluating these runners for the Breeders’ Cup Classic include the 2020 Kentucky Derby, Awesome Again, Travers and Whitney Stakes.

Maximum Security

Maximum Security is a brilliant colt who was transferred to trainer Bob Baffert earlier this year. He will be pressing the pace in the Classic looking for his 11th win in 14 starts. He’s 3-for-4 this year with a runner-up finish to stablemate Improbable in the Grade 1 Awesome Again Stakes last out in September. The Classic pace won’t be as fast as the Awesome Again when Maximum Security tracked a blistering pace. Now he’ll sit behind Authentic looking to take over in the stretch as he did when winning the 1 ¼ mile Pacific Classic in August. Main win contender.


Improbable is in the best form of his life with three straight wins and back-to-back career-best Equibase speed figures (120). He got the perfect setup last race when winning the Grade 1 Awesome Again at 1 1/8 miles by 4 ½ lengths over Maximum Security. Improbable has posted impressive speed numbers and that included in the Grade 1 Whitney at 1 1/8 miles when he defeated By My Standards by 2-lengths with Tom’s d’Etat finishing third in a race with a slower pace. Improbable is ranked No. 1 in the current NTRA Top Thoroughbred Poll just in front of Maximum Security. Main win contender.

Tiz the Law

Tiz the Law is 4-for-5 this year but has not raced since finishing second to Authentic in the 1 ¼ mile Kentucky Derby in early September. He won the 1 ¼ mile Travers impressively by more than 5-lengths in August, and he’s another pace presser who should be fresh and ready to fire his best shot. A main win contender if he can run back to his race speed and top form prior to the Kentucky Derby.


Authentic is currently ranked No. 1 in the NTRA top Thoroughbred Poll for 3-year-olds. A win or stronger finish in the Classic may earn him year-end 3-year-old honors. Authentic is ranked just in front of Tiz the Law and Swiss Skydiver, who won the Preakness Stakes and is running against fillies and mares in the Breeders’ Cup Distaff. Authentic won the Kentucky Derby and is the expected early pace setter and leader for the Classic. He’s facing older horses for the first time, including his two talented stablemates. Authentic has won 4-of-6 starts this year but was unable to pass Swiss Skydiver last race when finishing second in the Preakness Stakes and barely held on to win the 1 1/8 mile Haskell by a nose against a softer field. His Equibase speed figure in both the Kentucky Derby and Preakness was 109, and he’ll need to improve to hold up in the stretch to beat a tougher group in the Classic. In-the-money contender.

Tom’s d’Etat

Tom’s d’Etat is a cagey 7-year-old veteran who has given his connections many thrills winning 11-of-19 races including 2-for-3 this year. Trifecta bettors note he’s finished in-the-money 15 times and is freshened having last raced in August when finishing third as the favorite in the Grade I Whitney behind winner Improbable and runner-up By My Standards. Prior to that he won the Grade II Stephen Foster as the favorite and finished more than 4-lengths clear of runner-up By My Standards. Tom’s d’Etat did win his only start at Keeneland a year ago as the favorite in the Grade II Hagyard Fayette Stakes. Not likely to win at 1 ¼ miles, but a little value to contend and potentially hit the board.

By My Standards

By My Standards offers some value at 10/1, and he’s won 4-of-6 starts this year and finished runner-up twice including when he posted a career-best 118 speed figure to finish behind Improbable in the Whitney Stakes. He broke awkwardly and slow in that race, and note he’s never finished out of the money in 11 starts over a fast track. By My Standard will face a faster pace than he’s been accustomed to, but still has upside and value attached to hit the board.

Global Campaign

Global campaign has won two straight races including the 1 ¼ mile Grade I Woodward Handicap in his last start two months ago with a 109 speed figure. He went wire-to-wire and finished nearly 2-lenghts in front of Tacitus. Few horseman or handicappers expect him to hold up his speed against stronger runners in the Classic.


Tacitus is bred to go longer and has been a consistent in-the-money finisher in his career 11-of-14 races with four wins and four runner-up finishes. That includes in last year’s Belmont Stakes and Travers and a third place finish in the Kentucky Derby. But he’s not made enough progress as a 4-year-old to think he can now finish in front of many others who have beaten him before. His best Equibase speed figure is 110 when winning the Grade II Suburban in July against a weaker group.

Higher Power

Higher Power will try to come from off the pace, and his last win was seven races ago in the 2019 Grade 1 Pacific Classic. He finished second behind Improbable in the Grade 1 Hollywood Gold Cup in June with a solid 111 speed figure, and was fourth in the 2020 Pacific Classic 6-lengths behind winner Maximum Security in his last race in August. He’s been priced much more competitively in those races and his odds are too long in the Classic. He’s also had five very sharp morningn works at Keeneland the past month. Still, his best shot is a blistering pace and rally to potentially finish third or fourth.

Title Ready

Title Ready is a deep closer and the biggest longshot in the field. He’s never raced the classic 1 ¼ mile distance, and he’s never won a stakes race in those 14 starts. Title Ready is overmatched in the Breeders’ Cup Classic.

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FairwayJay is a leading national sports and gaming analyst and is recognized as one of the sports industry's most insightful professionals. Jay has pursued his passions and maintained a pulse on the sports, gaming and poker industries while living in Las Vegas for nearly two decades. He's been a regular featured guest on sports and gaming radio shows, podcasts and produces sports betting and related industry articles and content for various sites and sources.

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