Brazil vs. South Korea: 2022 World Cup Round of 16 Odds, Expected Goals

Written By Dan Tracey on December 3, 2022
Brazil vs South Korea Odds

Brazil, winners of Group G, take on South Korea, runners-up in Group H, in the World Cup Round of 16. The game kicks off Monday, Dec. 5 at 2:00 p.m. ET, televised by both FOX and Telemundo in the United States. Below, we’ll go over Brazil vs. South Korea odds and a preview of each team. Visit our 2022 FIFA World Cup odds page for more props and betting options, including tournament outrights.

Bettors should be aware during the Knockout Rounds that the three-way moneyline is only for 90 minutes plus stoppage time. If tied after that but a team wins in Extra Time or Penalty Kicks, soccer’s version of overtime, all three-way moneyline bets are still graded as a draw. If you are looking for a moneyline bet that pays out no matter when the win comes, look for “To Advance” or “To Qualify” props.   

Brazil vs. South Korea odds

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Brazil Team Preview

If there is one thing that we have learned at the end of the World Cup group stage, it is that this year’s tournament seems the most competitive edition in years. With no nation earning nine points from its first three matches, there seems to be no outstanding candidate as yet.

There are plenty of very good candidates, even very great candidates but there is no single nation that is standing head and shoulders above the rest. Good news for neutral observers, but not so good for those who are following Brazil.

Although the Seleção is currently the outright favorite to lift the trophy in Qatar, they have yet to truly put a team to a sword. Not only that, but they suffered a defeat to Cameroon in their third group stage encounter.

Admittedly this defeat came after manager Tite had made wholesale changes. A right that was afforded to him after safe passage to the Round of 16 was already secured. However, even with rotation in place, there was enough talent to get the better of their opposition.

Like France’s stutter against Tunisia days before, it does highlight that the squad depth that many have been heralding is not as deep as first thought. If the French, or Brazil for that matter, is to win the World Cup, then their graded players will need to bring their A-game. 

However, if there is a time to serve up a blip in tournament soccer, it is always better to do so when the stakes are at their lowest. That was certainly the case against Cameroon, and now, Brazil will be tasked with showing their tournament credentials against South Korea. 

South Korea Team Preview

By the time South Korea saw themselves conceding an early goal to Portugal, Friday’s clash was beginning to look like a foregone conclusion. Not only in the context of the game itself but also in terms of qualification out of Group H.

However, in a tournament that has already been full of twists and turns, there was still plenty of time for another to unfold. One that saw South Korea not only draw level but also then snatch a late winner.

Jubilation for Paulo Bento’s men and then an agonizing wait, as he and his Korean cohorts had to wait for events between Uruguay and Ghana to unfold. If the South American outfit scored one more goal in the dying seconds, it would be they who would advance.

Thankfully for those watching in Seoul and also the squad members who were huddled around a mobile device in Qatar, any further drama did not develop and an unlikely Round of 16 berth was subsequently secured.

Something that certainly looked unlikely after two Group H fixtures. With just a point to their name and sitting bottom of the table, it was going to take a large chunk of fortune for this Korean outfit to advance.

Of course, it was not just fortune that earned them progress to the knockout phase, but a never-say-die attitude to go with it. If they can display the same attitude against tournament favorites Brazil, who knows what might happen.

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World Cup Knockout Rounds Bracket

Brazil vs. South Korea Expected Goals

In a sport where scoring has extremely high variance, opportunities to score and opportunities allowed has become a more respected measure of the quality of a team’s play. Expected goals (xG) measures the quality of a shot based on several factors, including shot type, shot angle and distance from goal. Similarly, expected goals allowed (xGA) measure the quality of a team’s defense. Subtracting expected goals allowed from expected goals equals expected goal differential (xGD) and offers an overall advanced measure of a team.

TeamGoals ScoredGoals AllowedGoal Difference2022 World Cup xG2022 World Cup xGA2022 World Cup xGD
Brazil31+25.881.43+4.45
South Korea4404.723.57+1.15

Matchup History

In terms of the history between Brazil and South Korea, it is almost one-way traffic as far as the South American nation is concerned. With there being seven previous meetings between the two, the home of samba soccer has won six of them.

All seven previous encounters have come in the form of international friendlies and this will be the first time that Brazil and South Korea have been paired together at the World Cup finals. 

Of the clashes that are now in the history books, the only time there has been Korean joy was back in March 1999. A 1-0 in Seoul that came courtesy of a last-minute winner from Kim Do-Hoon. 

Brazil vs. South Korea Odds: Bets To Consider

Over 3.5 Goals: +190

Although Brazil is yet to truly put a team to the sword, you do get the feeling that it will happen at least once in Qatar. While after losing to Cameroon on Friday, their current crop of stars will have a point to prove.

Because there is also a sense that you write off this Brazil team at your own peril. With the litany of attacking talent that manager Tite can call upon, it just needs all the pieces of the jigsaw to finally click together.

A jigsaw puzzle that has been missing its most important piece in the past week and with Neymar being absent for the clashes against both Switzerland and Cameroon, the tournament favorites are certainly missing a step up top.

Even if Neymar loses his own personal fitness race, Brazil will take solace in going up against a rather generous South Korean defense. Paulo Bento’s men have already conceded four goals in Qatar and look likely to be get up against it on Monday.

Then again, they have scored just as many at the other end and this is why I believe this will be a fixture that lends itself to goals. You could opt for over 2.5 to play it safe, but that will do little to make the sportsbooks nervous and this is why I am plumping over 3.5 instead. 

South Korea win (Brazil Win No Bet): +190

With Brazil being the overwhelming favorite in this encounter, backing them to win is maybe not as simple or as advisable as first thought. Because not only is there the potential for a World Cup upset, but there is also the possibility of extra time or penalties being required.

If you were to back Brazil to win in 90 minutes, most sportsbooks are offering odds of -1000, and such a price there seems no real logic in backing the South American nation to come out on top.

This is why I have dived a little deeper for my next pick, and although I am backing South Korea to win, there is a considerable amount of hedging that will take place beforehand. Hedging that needs Brazil to help me out.

Although I could go for broke and back South Korea to win at +1100, this bet would be all in. I would need them to win in 90 minutes and even though risk does equal reward, there would be no margin for error.

However, in this market, I am still backing South Korea to win at odds of +190 and although it is considerably smaller in price, I am offered insurance. If Brazil wins the match in 90 minutes, my stake is returned. If they suffer a shock defeat, I am still counting my winnings. 

World Cup Sports Betting Promos Brazil vs. South Korea Odds

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