Brazil Vs. Croatia: 2022 World Cup Quarterfinal Odds, Expected Goals

Written By Mo Nuwwarah on December 6, 2022
Brazil vs Croatia odds

2022 World Cup odds for the quarterfinals feature Brazil vs. Croatia. This match will be televised in the U.S. on FOX and Telemundo on Friday, Dec. 9 at 10 a.m. ET. The victor advances to the semifinals to face the winner of Argentina vs. Netherlands.

Bettors should be aware during the Knockout Rounds that the three-way moneyline is only for 90 minutes plus stoppage time. If tied after that but a team wins in Extra Time or Penalty Kicks, soccer’s version of overtime, all three-way moneyline bets are still graded as a draw. If you are looking for a moneyline bet that pays out no matter when the win comes, look for “To Advance” or “To Qualify” props.

Brazil Vs. Croatia Odds

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Brazil Team Preview

On the evidence of Brazil’s group stage offerings in Qatar, they had yet to truly put a team to the sword. Impressive showings against both Serbia and Switzerland perhaps, but at the same time, there was nothing that simply blew you away. While, to a certain degree, they were blown away by Cameroon in their final Group G encounter. A 1-0 result that came after knockout soccer was secured, but still counted as a surprise result all the same.

However, if you are to get a bad result out of your system, it is better to do it when the World Cup stakes are at their lowest. Not only that, but it is even better if you can return to winning ways soon after.

Something that this Brazil team managed emphatically at the start of the week. A lightning-fast display against South Korea and one that saw no fewer than four unanswered goals scored within the first 45 minutes of the game.

Such a showing against their Asian opponents was what many have been waiting for. And now that Brazil has been unleashed in Qatar, it could well spell bad news for Croatia.

Especially as Neymar is now also back to full fitness. With the PSG star on hand to support Tottenham’s Richarlison, both they and a litany of other attacking options are ready to continue their charge to this year’s World Cup final.

Croatia Team Preview

Much has been written about Croatia’s aging legs at this year’s World Cup and whether they can go all the way in Qatar. Column inches have primarily downplayed the chances of the European outfit.

However, those same aging legs have now taken Croatia to the quarterfinals of this year’s tournament. Suddenly, the elder statesmen within the squad have a considerable amount of worth attached.

Because with the squad largely comprised of those who reached the final in Russia four years ago, that same experience will stand Zlatko Dalić’s men in good stead as they prepare for a last-eight clash with Brazil. 

Still, those aging legs will certainly be tired ones after needing both extra time and penalties to dispose of Japan in the Round of 16. It was not a classic Croatian performance, but that has largely been the case since the tournament got underway.

Croatia did secure a 4-1 group stage win recorded against Canada. But, that performance was just the meat in a rather bland sandwich, one that bookended by goalless draws against both Morocco and Belgium.

It could be argued that whatever Croatia lacks in terms of attacking inspiration, they certainly make up for it when it comes to defensive perspiration. With Brazil appearing on Friday’s horizon, you can expect them to show plenty of the latter.

World Cup Knockout Rounds Bracket

world cup bracket

Brazil Vs. Croatia Expected Goals

In a sport where scoring has extremely high variance, opportunities to score and opportunities allowed has become a more respected measure of the quality of a team’s play. Expected goals (xG) measures the quality of a shot based on several factors, including shot type, shot angle and distance from goal. Similarly, expected goals allowed (xGA) measure the quality of a team’s defense. Subtracting expected goals allowed from expected goals equals expected goal differential (xGD) and offers an overall advanced measure of a team.

TeamGoals ForGoals AgainstGoal DifferencexGoals ForxGoals AgainstxGoal Difference
Brazil 72+5 9.432.02+7.51
Croatia 52+3 5.95.64+0.26

Matchup History

In terms of the history between these two nations, it is incredibly one-sided. Of the four previous meetings that have taken place between Croatia and Brazil, the latter has won the last three.

Not only that, but two of those three victories have come at recent editions of the World Cup finals. With 2006 seeing Brazil earn a group stage win in Germany, they would then do the same on home soil eight years later.

That 2014 success over their European counterparts would act as the curtain raiser to that year’s tournament. A tournament that would see the home of samba soccer crushed in the semi-finals, as eventual outright winners Germany ran out 7-1 winners in Belo Horizonte.

Brazil Vs. Croatia Bets To Consider

Both teams to score and under 5.5 total goals: +138

With Brazil the clear favorite to win on Friday, we will need to dig a little deeper on the hunt for value. Especially as the current edition of the World Cup has already thrown up some substantial shocks.

Thankfully, this first selection is not nailing its colors to the mast and attempting to back a winner. Instead, it is goals where I am flying my flag before Friday. If both teams score, we are subsequently in business.

However, it is not just a goal for either side that will convert this tip into winnings. That is the starting point. But, no more than five in total is where the game must come to its rightful conclusion.

This means we must find a delicate balance between Brazil’s attack and Croatia’s defense. Brazil scored four in their last outing, and Croatia has conceded just two in 300 minutes of tournament football.

While the Croats can be considered shy in front of goal, Brazil has conceded in both their last two outings. This is why both teams scoring has tickled my fancy. As long it does not lead to a flurry of overall goals, this tip should have little trouble getting over the line.

Brazil, 2-1, 3-1, 4-1 win (90 minutes): +210

To build on that first tip even further, this time I am going to back Brazil to win. I am going to use both teams scoring and no more than five goals in total to my advantage as well.

Because when it comes to finding the value and Brazilian success to go alongside it, we need to make an assumption that both teams will find the net on Friday. In making that assumption, we can then make use of one of the score bands that are on offer.

If we take the equation above, we want a goal each and a maximum of five. Now we want to add a Brazil win to our calculated construction. This means we can back either a 2-1, 3-1, or 4-1 victory for the South American outfit.

In doing so, the total goals from either of those three winning outcomes do not exceed five goals. It also offers a greater spread than simply selecting one correct score and having no margin for error.

Admittedly we have no margin for error if Brazil does not win and even less if Croatia does not score in the process. However, if this one goes to plan, we can win twice over once the final whistle is blown.

Best of luck wagering on Brazil vs. Croatia odds.

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Mo Nuwwarah Avatar
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Mo Nuwwarah

Mo Nuwwarah got his start in gambling early, making his first sports bet on his beloved Fab Five against the UNC Tar Heels in the 1993 NCAA tournament. He lost $5 to his dad and got back into sports betting years later during a 15-year run in the poker industry. A 2011 journalism graduate from Nebraska-Omaha, he combines those skills with his love of sports and statistics to help bettors make more informed decisions with a focus on pro football, baseball and basketball.

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