Brazil Vs Argentina: Copa America Final Odds, Expected Goals

Written By Marco Cerino on July 8, 2021 - Last Updated on July 11, 2021
brazil vs argentina

The two heavyweights in South American football will do battle Saturday night in the Copa America 2020 final. Brazil vs Argentina has a combined 23 of the 47 Copa America titles, with Argentina winning 14.

Alongside European teams, these two sides have some of the most recognizable names in national lineups, including single-named superstars of soccer lure. Saturday will be Brazil’s Neymar facing Argentina’s Lionel Messi at the famed Maracana stadium in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.

Brazil Vs Argentina Odds

Brazil enters the final as titleholders with a No. 3 ranking in the world. The South American power defeated Peru in 2019. The country has won five of the last nine editions of Copa America, including defeating Argentina in 2004 and 2007 in the finals. Argentina, ranked No. 7 before the tournament started and won the other final meeting between the two sides in 1937.

Much like the Euro 2020 final between Italy and England, these teams are STACKED.

Here are the odds available from the top sportsbooks, which kicks off at 8:00p EST Saturday on FS1. The prices are for a regulation result, consisting of the 90 minutes of regulations and any stoppage time. If you bet on Brazil or Argentina in the three-way money line, and either wins in extra time or penalty kicks, you still lose your bet.

Unlike other games in the tournament’s knockout stages, the final may go into added extra time if tied after regulation.

Brazil Vs Argentina Odds - Copa America Final

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Over 2.5 Total Goals
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Under 2.5 Total Goals
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Brazil Vs Argentina Expected Goals

In a sport where scoring has extremely high variance, opportunities to score and opportunities allowed has become a more respected measure of the quality of a team’s play. Expected goals (xG) measures the quality of a shot based on several factors, including shot type, shot angle and distance from goal. Similarly, expected goals allowed (xGA) measure the quality of a team’s defense. Subtracting expected goals allowed from expected goals equals expected goal differential (xGD) and offers an overall advanced measure of a team.

Both of these teams have xG numbers above their on-field performances. The numbers emphasize how much better the finalists have been against their opposition. Brazil has slightly outperformed Argentina in this tournament in terms of both xG and xGA.

Here are the xG numbers from the six games Argentina and Brazil played to reach the final:

TeamGoals ScoredGoals Conceded Goal DifferentialxGxGAxGD

Path To The Copa America Final

In the 10-team field, these super squads stood out. Each won their groups with three wins and a draw.

Brazil made the final with 1-0 wins over Chile in the quarterfinals and Peru in the semis. Brazil’s goalkeeper Ederson has not conceded since the group stage. Brazil enters the favorites and will get a starter back for the final, as Gabriel Jesus served his red-card suspension against Peru.

Argentina topped Ecuador 3-0 to open knockout play but needed penalty kicks to advance past Colombia following a 1-1 draw in the semifinals. Keeper Emiliano Martinez stopped three of five Colombian PKs to survive the semifinals.

Brazil Vs Argentina Final Thoughts

Like England in the Euro 2020 final, Brazil enters as hosts and favorites. Also like England, Brazil will oddly be the away team in their nation’s most famous stadium.

Brazil are still taking the pitch in Rio, higher ranked and have been superior to all opponents in the tournament. They also have one edge over their southern neighbors: scoring breadth. Messi will likely win the Golden Boot for the tournament. However, he has over one-third of Argentina’s scoring in the tournament. Neymar leads the Brazilian offense but has only tallied twice. Only Paqueta has scored more than one goal in the tournament for them, and he has both goals in the knockout stages.

Argentina’s fatal flaw in Messi’s brilliant service has been the lack of a consistent second scorer. Five years ago, Gonzalo Higuan was expected to bring his scoring touch over from Italy, where he set a Serie A goals record for Napoli. He missed scoring opportunities for Argentina, especially in the final against Chile. Angel Di Maria was considered the heir apparent, but he struggled. Now the mantle falls to Lautaro Martinez, who scored twice and converted his PK against Colombia.

The Brazilian defense will look to lock down on Messi. If Argentina want to give their generational superstar some hardware to match his club accomplishments, they need to give him a reliable second scorer. Meanwhile, Brazil will look to counter and bring their depth to play to raise a tenth overall Copa America before the home crowd.

The oddsmakers give Brazil between a 46.3% and 48.8% implied chance of winning in the 90 minutes.

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