Bracketology Odds & Predictions To Make NCAA Tournament: Arkansas, UNC, Indiana In Dire Straits
Among the bevy of available college basketball odds, FanDuel Sportsbook provides a betting market for select teams on the bubble of the 2025 NCAA tournament. As we approach Selection Sunday on March 16, many questions remain regarding big-named programs, such as Arkansas, North Carolina, and Indiana, and their March Madness chances. Let's evaluate the most intriguing bracketology odds with an eye on the weekend's biggest matchups.
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arkansas razorbacks (15-11, 4-9): -105
We often see John Calipari-led squads play their best basketball near the NCAA tournament, and this season is no different.
Following five-star freshman Boogie Fland undergoing season-ending thumb surgery in late January, Arkansas' defense has morphed into one of the nation's best, ranking seventh in BarTorvik's adjusted defensive efficiency (AdjD) metric. According to FanDuel's bracketology odds, the Razorbacks have a 51.2% implied probability of securing an at-large bid for the Big Dance.
If you expect the upset-minded 'Hogs to defeat red-hot Missouri on Saturday night, these bracketology odds are worth betting on. A win would go a long way toward punching Arkansas' ticket before the SEC tournament in mid-March.
Arkansas vs. Missouri: Spread, Moneyline, Total
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unc tar heels (16-11, 9-6): +165
North Carolina's bracketology odds aren't as promising, equivalent to a 37.3% implied probability. Inconsistent floor spacing has plenty to do with it, tallying the sixth-worst perimeter shooting (33.3%) in league play. In particular, R.J. Davis, the 2023-24 ACC Player of the Year, has manufactured a modest 35% clip on open catch-and-shoot 3-point attempts (via Synergy).
Unlike Arkansas, there aren't many opportunities to secure notable wins in this lowly conference. However, a rematch against No. 3 Duke looms large to wrap up the regular season. Depending on how the rest of these bubble teams fare, UNC could nab an at-large bid by sweeping the docket before the ACC tournament.
First up is Virginia on Saturday afternoon. The Tar Heels are projected 11-point favorites across numerous analytical sites.
UNC vs. Virginia: Spread, Moneyline, Total
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Indiana Hoosiers (15-11, 6-9): +270
Mike Woodson's return to Assembly Hall has not gone according to plan. Reportedly pushed out the door after a confounding three-plus years, the Indiana alum will resign at the end of the campaign.
Nevertheless, the Hoosiers' March Madness hopes aren't dead. In fact, their 27% implied probability would drastically improve with a victory against arch-rival Purdue on Sunday. In their first duel at Mackey Arena, Indiana relinquished a six-point cushion with 5:36 remaining. Overcoming late-game mismanagement isn't easy with this poorly-constructed roster, but it may face the Boilermakers at the right time, with Purdue falling in three consecutive games.
Its transition defense was the culprit on each occasion. While the Hoosiers' fast-break attack ranks around the D-I average on a points-per-possession (PPP) basis, they've had over a week to prep for this rematch. An upset isn't out of the question.
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Will Vanderbilt Miss The Party?
There are also "Yes/No" markets available for each team. The Commodores are +150 to slip down the stretch, with Ole Miss, Texas A&M, Missouri, Arkansas, and Georgia left in the regular season. Given their 2-8 record in Quadrant 1 matchups, bettors may look to invest in the "No" price if they expect Vanderbilt to continue to struggle against upper-echelon competition.
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