For many, the best part of the NCAA Tournament is filling out brackets. You might be doing it as part of an office or friends/family pool, or maybe you are just a junkie and will fill out countless brackets in hopes of having just one that does well. It is part of what makes March Madnessso much fun.
There are many competitions out there, too, with chances to win big prizes, money, and, this year, a trip to Mars. It can be maddening, though, when your bracket busts in the first round. My friends and family fill out brackets each year, and it has been fun watching how different people with different levels of fandom have developed their strategies.
Some people will pick based on a team’s mascot or team colors. Others pick a lot of upsets because that’s more fun, and still others may have favorite teams or hated rivals that they will pick to go far or exit early, as the case may be.
After years of family and friends having higher-scoring brackets than any of the 20-plus that I, a professional sports writer, filled out, I decided enough was enough. At that point, the embarrassment was too much, so I dug deep before filling out my 2023 bracket, using stats, trends, and proven strategies to create the perfect NCAA Tournament bracket.
Using those strategies in the past two seasons, I have had my best two years ever, filling out brackets, winning several pools, and scoring highly in some national contests.
There is still luck involved, of course, but with that said, I am going to share some time-tested methods for filling out your bracket that will help set you up for success. If all the trends stretching back 20-plus years fail because … well … March Madness, then next year, I might just share my son’s mascot picks to help you out.
Odds to win the 2025 national title
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Statistical trends to use when choosing the National Champion
Every national title winner since 2004 has been in the top 12 of the week 6 AP poll.
Tennessee
Auburn
Iowa State
Duke
Kentucky
Marquette
Alabama
Gonzaga
Florida
Kansas
Purdue
Oregon
Since 1985, 100% of national champions have been to at least their conference tournament semifinal, eliminating:
Iowa State
Kansas
Oregon
Kentucky
Since 2002, 100% of national champions have been in the top 39 for adjusted offensive efficiency and top 23 for adjusted defensive efficiency on Kenpom. Applying that to this season leaves 11 teams:
Duke
Florida
Houston
Auburn
Tennessee
Michigan State
Maryland
Iowa State
Clemson
UCLA
Louisville
With only one outlier year, when UConn was 39th for adjusted offensive efficiency and won the 2014 NCAA championship, every other national title winner was in the top 20 for adjusted offensive efficiency. That leaves only six teams that fit the criteria:
Duke
Florida
Houston
Auburn
Tennessee
Iowa State
Let’s put it all together, and it leaves these five teams:
Duke
Florida
Houston
Auburn
Tennessee
Betting trends and stats for 1st round picks
If we define upsets as a team winning when it is at least five seed lines lower than its opponent, the first round of the NCAA Tournament averages 4.7 upsets.
There have never been more than eight upsets (2008) in the first round between teams with five seed lines between them.
An upset involving an 11 seed over a 6 seed occurs 39.1% of the time, and a 12 seed over a 5 seed happens in 35.26% of matchups. That means averages say there will be at least one 11 seed and one 12 seed to win.
A 13 seed upsetting a 4 seed occurs 21.15% of the time, and a 14 seed over a 3 seed happens in 14.74% of matchups. So stats suggest that one 13 or 14 seed will win.
Since the tournament expanded to 68 teams in 2011, at least one team that advanced from the First Four has won a first-round game in every tournament except for 2019.
Betting trends and stats for 2nd round picks
The round of 32 has averaged three upsets, with never less than one and a high of six (which has happened three times: 1990, 1996, and 2018).
A 7 or 10 seed has upset a 2 seed 46 times in the past 39 NCAA Tournaments, averaging 1.2 per tournament. History tells us that at least one 2 seed is likely to go down in the second round.
No. 1 seeds have won two games 85.2% of the time and have won their second-round game in 86.3% of matchups. That means there is an average of less than one No. 1-seeded team not making at least the Sweet 16.
Betting trends and stats for Sweet 16 picks
The Sweet 16 is when Cinderella stories tend to end, with only an average of 0.25 upsets happening. First, this requires high seeds to get to the Sweet 16, and even when they do, they rarely beat a team that is five or more seed lines better than them.
One seeds that make the Sweet 16 are 11-7 since 2014.
Betting trends and stats for Elite 8 picks
The Elite 8 has averaged more upsets than the Sweet 16, at 0.30 per year. This means that if a team makes the Elite 8, and it is five seed lines or lower than its opponent, it stands a decent chance to win.
The Elite 8 is where No. 1 seeds start to lose more frequently, going 16-10 since 2012.
A 6 seed has not reached the Final Four since 1992.
1 and 2 seed games in the Elite 8 are toss-ups, with a 25-24 all-time record, and 2 seeds actually hold a 7-5 advantage since 2010.
Betting trends and stats for Final 4 picks
The Final Four is tough to pick, as any team that has made it this far is playing its best basketball.
Reference our earlier stats and trends regarding national championship winners. If you buy those trends, then at least one of those teams needs to win one of the two Final Four games in your bracket.
Top sportsbook promos for March Madness
Check out the sportsbook promos available for the tournament in your state.
Check out some of the best NCAA Tournament bracket competitions and games at top online betting sites.
FanDuel Bet Your Bracket — Multi-Round Parlays
For the first time, FanDuelis letting users stack tournament predictions into a single parlay. Instead of betting on one game at a time, you can combine picks from multiple rounds.
How it works:
Select teams to reach the Sweet 16, Elite Eight, Final Four, or win their region — all within one parlay.
Link multiple round outcomes into a single wager for bigger potential payouts.
Exclusive to FanDuel, the only sportsbook offering cross-round parlays for the tournament.
FanDuel Tourney Shuffle’Em
Users at FanDuel can sign up for the free-to-play Tournament Shuffle’Em game, in which you try to get the correct Final Four teams. The twist is you get 40 shuffles and can switch your team in each region. You can only shuffle 40 times, and a new random team in the region you shuffle pops up each time you do. So, if you come down to your last shuffle, you could end up getting a region’s 16 seed if you decide to risk it.
DraftKings Sportsbook Pools
DraftKingshas various NCAA Tournament pools, ranging from free entry pools to ones with small $2 entry fees to entry fees in the thousands. The larger the fee, the larger the prize pool, with prizes ranging from $5,000 to $50,000.
Bet365 Bracket Challenge 2025: Win $10M for a Perfect Bracket
Bet365 is raising the stakes for this year’s tournament with a $10 million grand prize for a flawless bracket. The challenge kicks off on March 16, with $100,000 awarded to the top scorer and prizes for the top 5,000 entries. Think you can predict every game? A perfect bracket wins $10 million.
watcH: march madness betting preview
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