Bracket Reveal: Most Vulnerable No. 1 Seed After Committee Reveals Top-16 Teams?

Written By Eli Hershkovich on February 19, 2022 - Last Updated on February 21, 2022
Bracket Reveal

On Saturday afternoon, the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee revealed who their top-16 seeds would be if March Madness was about to begin. You can find the order of those teams below, their odds to cut down the nets in April, and a betting angle for the big dance.

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Bracket Reveal: Committee’s Top-16 Seeds

No. 1 Seeds:

1. Gonzaga ()

2. Auburn ()

3. Arizona ()

4. Kansas ()

No. 2 Seeds:

1. Baylor ()

2. Kentucky ()

3. Purdue ()

4. Duke ()

No. 3 Seeds:

1. Villanova ()

2. Texas Tech ()

3. Tennessee ()

4. Illinois ()

No. 4 Seeds:

1. Wisconsin ()

2. UCLA ()

3. Providence ()

4. Texas ()

Most Vulnerable No. 1 Seed in Bracket Reveal?

Despite the Bulldogs representing the runner-up in two of the last four NCAA tournaments, bettors will inevitably expect them to bow out early because they’re from the West Coast Conference. We’ll see if five-star freshman Chet Holmgren continues his dominance in conference play, but Gonzaga still presents the pieces for another team tournament run.

Wouldn’t the Wildcats or Jayhawks be the next obvious choice then?

Nope. The Tigers, which are outperforming their shooting metrics by four wins (via ShotQuality), are the most vulnerable No. 1 seed. Although Bruce Pearl’s team boasts the 15th-highest Adjusted Offensive Efficiency in college basketball, it’s showcasing a bottom-100 3-point clip (31.9%).

  • Adjusted Efficiency (per KenPom) accounts for the estimate efficiency (points scored or allowed per 100 possessions) a team would accrue or allow against the average Division I opponent.

When Auburn isn’t generating takeaways and dominating with an uptempo pace, it struggles to produce efficient offense against opponents that can limit dribble penetration in half-court sets. Arkansas is a prime example, holding the Tigers to 0.92 points per possession and 25.0% shooting from behind the arc.

On top of that, their perimeter defense is extremely susceptible as well, surrendering the SEC’s fifth-highest percentage of open 3-point looks.

Even with Jabari Smith — the potential No. 1 overall pick in the 2022 NBA Draft — Auburn could be overvalued against the spread in the Round of 32 and beyond.

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Written by
Eli Hershkovich

Eli Hershkovich is a lead sports betting writer with TheLines and Catena Media, formerly with Audacy and The Action Network. His goal is to provide you with data and information to lead you to winning bets. Eli is an avid college basketball gambler — among many other sports — and still hasn't forgiven Virginia for ruining his 2018-2019 Texas Tech futures.

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