Boston Red Sox Odds: Win Totals, 2024 Projections, Possible Bets
Welcome to TheLines' 2024 MLB odds preview series. Here, we'll preview every team's 2024 season with a focus on MLB win totals and World Series odds. We'll evaluate each team's roster and see if there are any wagers worth considering. Today, we'll look at Boston Red Sox odds.
The Red Sox went 78-84 in a last-place finish in the AL East. Their continued underfunding of the roster relative to the organization's financial might yielded another season of poor returns. At this juncture, it appears management will once again roll out the balls and let an average roster trudge its way through another doomed season as ownership stacks cash.
Is there any chance of a positive turn in Beantown, or is Boston again consigned to another basement finish?
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Red Sox Odds: An Overview And What The Projections Say
First, let's compare the market on Red Sox odds to publicly available projections from FanGraphs and Baseball Prospectus.
- 2023 wins: 78
- Market wins: /
- FanGraphs wins: 80.2
- Baseball Prospectus wins: 79.8
The projections are a hair higher on Boston than the market, probably due to the team's depth. Boston doesn't have many stars, but it doesn't have many gaping holes, either. The Red Sox had neutral luck last season, so any improvements must come from roster moves or internal gains. However, the biggest additions -- Tyler O'Neill, Vaughn Grissom, and Lucas Giolito -- don't really move the needle all that much.
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Evaluating The Red Sox Roster
Bats And Defense
Boston has a couple of stars hitting near the top of the lineup in Rafael Devers and Triston Casas. If Casas can build on his strong debut season (129 wRC+), anyway.
The rest of the lineup is a bit lacking, however.
It's never good when a hitter projected to perform at a below-average level is penciled into the cleanup spot. But that's where Boston sits with Trevor Story. Story put together several solid seasons thanks to his defense, but he hasn't performed like a star since 2019 and struggled in his return from elbow surgery last season.
The team is also hoping to buy low on O'Neill, who fell out of favor in St. Louis and has posted two subpar seasons. This lineup probably tops out below average if those two don't bounce back.
Catcher is a notable weak point, with Connor Wong failing to throw out many opposing runners (21% CS) while batting for a hideous 78 wRC+. And his Statcast numbers say that came with some good fortune (wOBA-xwOBA of -0.018).
Speaking of Statcast, the tracking data had Boston as the worst defensive team in MLB last season. Other metrics liked them a bit more, but this group looks likely to grade out in the bottom half of the league.
Boston's bench is also weak. Bobby Dalbec has been a bust, and Rob Refsnyder is punchless without the platoon advantage.
Pitching
The Red Sox have assembled a rotation with a lot of depth but not a lot of talent. Essentially, they've put together a five-man rotation of No. 3s.
Boston paid Giolito almost $20 million per year, but he hasn't produced an above-average campaign since 2021. Given that he's entering his age-29 season and FBvelo has declined by about a full tick from his heyday (and last year's 93.3 represented some improvement from 2022), it's not realistic to expect him to be a star again.
Brayan Bello and Kutter Crawford probably represent the best chances for a No. 2 to emerge.
Crawford showed an intriguing swing-and-miss skillset. Something seems to have clicked with his stuff, as he got a ton of chases. The command still isn't great, but even a repeat of 2023's 2.4 WAR would be a win for the organization.
Bello doesn't garner as many whiffs but gets a ton of grounders (56.1 career GB%). Unfortunately, the team's porous infield isn't a great fit for him.
Tanner Houck and Nick Pivetta are fine options for rounding out the rotation.
The bullpen is deep with decent arms. But the ages of Kenley Jansen (36) and Chris Martin (37) are cause for concern. Garrett Whitlock could emerge as a quality closer if given a solidified pen role.
Possible Bets On Red Sox Odds
The 2024 Red Sox can best be described as "fine." They have a fine lineup, a fine rotation, and a fine bullpen. But they don't have much upside, and their best prospect (Marcelo Mayer) isn't projected to contribute this year. The defense looks poor.
Boston looks to me like a team that was put together for the sole purpose of being just good enough to keep the fans buying tickets. That's what they've been the past few years, and that's what they'll continue to be in 2024, in all likelihood. The projections agree, with a narrow band of expected wins.
That makes for an uninteresting betting outlook. If everything breaks right, they could possibly hang around with a shot at the division, but I'd need +2000 before even considering a wager.
I like some of their pitchers, and I'll be on the lookout to see if betting Crawford and Bello's starts continues to provide value. But I don't expect to have any wagers in either direction on Red Sox futures odds.
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