Borussia Dortmund Vs. Chelsea: 2022-23 Champions League Round Of 16 Odds, Expected Goals

Written By Dan Tracey on February 14, 2023 - Last Updated on February 15, 2023
Champions league odds

The UEFA Champions League round of 16 continues on Wednesday, Feb. 15 with Leg 1 of Borussia Dortmund vs. Chelsea. Bettors can catch the broadcast at 3 p.m. EST on various streaming platforms like fuboTV, Paramount+ and Univision. The winner has the edge before the two meet again in the second leg on March 7 in England. As part of TheLines‘ soccer coverage, let’s take a look at Champions League odds for this match.

Borussia Dortmund Vs. Chelsea Champions League Odds

Bettors should be aware during the Champions League knockout rounds that the three-way moneyline is only for 90 minutes plus stoppage time. 

If the aggregate-goal score after two legs is tied, there will be two 15-minute periods of extra time. However, it’s possible for a Champions League match to go to extra time with a Leg 2 score that was not tied. In this case, three-way moneyline bets for Leg 2 are graded for the team that leads after 90 minutes. 

If you are looking for a moneyline bet that pays out on the team to move on to the next round, look for “To Advance” or “To Qualify” props.

Borussia Dortmund Team Preview

How do you replace Erling Haaland? The answer is that you cannot. All you can simply do is try to adjust to life without him. That adjustment has caused serious struggles for Borussia Dortmund.

However, such a void looks like it has been at least partially filled in recent weeks. With the black and yellow of Dortmund now thrusting themselves back into the Bundesliga title race, they now look to keep the pace with Bayern Munich and Union Berlin.

The recent resurgence has certainly been a real team effort. With no talisman on hand to tear through opposition defenses, the scoring burden has spread across a number of exciting young talents. Talents that include the in-demand Jude Bellingham. And with the England international linked with a move away from Germany in the summer, this could be his last few months in Dortmund’s famous colors.

Gio Reyna has also stepped up on the scoring front. Although he finds himself the center of a storm within USMNT circles, he has certainly got his head down when it comes to matters within Europe.

Dortmund has already squared up to English opposition this season. With Haaland going up against his former employers, Manchester City won once and played out a tie in the group stage. However, the story against Chelsea could end in far more promising fashion.

Chelsea Team Preview

There is no doubt that Chelsea is going through a period of transition at present. That transition has proven a rather painful one, and the era of Todd Boehly ownership is not quite going to plan.

Because no matter how many dollars Boehly has spent across the last two transfer windows, the Blues have missed on hitting the high notes on the field of play. And if they hope to win silverware this season, they are very much looking at Champions League or bust.

The same could be said for manager Graham Potter’s employment status. He may be safe for now. But, a failure to either lift the trophy in June or secure a top-four Premier League finish in May could prove his undoing. Harsh on the former Brighton boss, but the Englishman would have known what he was getting into when he took the job. Then again, the job remit has certainly changed in the past few months.

That circles back to Boehly and the previously mentioned splash of cash. Yes, there may be an influx of new players at Stamford Bridge, but how many of those are to fulfill ownership’s desires and not those of the manager? 

When an owner starts buying players for himself on a whim, the man in charge quickly becomes viewed as interchangeable. Another change may soon befall West London if Champions League progress does not continue.

Champions League Knockout Rounds Bracket

Since the UCL draws for new matchups after the round of 16, there’s no set bracket for fans to follow just yet.

Borussia Dortmund Vs. Chelsea Expected Goals

In a sport where scoring has extremely high variance, opportunities to score and opportunities allowed has become a more respected measure of the quality of a team’s play. Expected goals (xG) measures the quality of a shot based on several factors, including shot type, shot angle and distance from goal. Similarly, expected goals allowed (xGA) measure the quality of a team’s defense. Subtracting expected goals allowed from expected goals equals expected goal differential (xGD) and offers an overall advanced measure of a team.

Borussia Dortmund6105+58.27.3+0.9

Matchup History

Although both Borussia Dortmund and Chelsea count themselves Champions League mainstays, the two sides have yet to meet each other in the competition. That will only make next week’s clash in Germany all the more appealing. 

Borussia Dortmund Vs. Chelsea Champions League Odds: Bets To Consider

Draw: +235

Although Chelsea has a plethora of attacking talent, they still have one underlying issue with which manager Graham Potter must deal. That being a criminal lack of goals in recent weeks.

That crime remains unsolved. And even though the former Brighton manager has seemingly solved the Blues’ defensive deficiencies for now, a lack of genuine firepower has cost Chelsea some much-needed victories in the Premier League.

Some certain similarities exist between them and upcoming hosts Borussia Dortmund, the German side still getting used to the void left behind by Haaland. That leaves them prone to the odd bad result. 

Hence, the first leg of this upcoming Champions League encounter could play out as something of a feeling-out process. One where neither side wants to find themselves all but dumped out of the tie. Both may play as if they hope to see another 90 minutes. 

With the jeopardy of the away goals rule no longer in place, the advantage has been removed for the traveling side. Therefore, a draw for Chelsea in midweek would certainly not count as the worst result to take home.

Halftime Draw: +190

To expand on the lack of firepower for both teams, this could also be an encounter that ranks low in terms of the midweek entertainment scale. Therefore, fans of goals may want to divert their Champions League attention elsewhere. 

I think the first 45 minutes could be a rather cagey affair. In fairness, I already said that about the full 90 at Signal Iduna Park.

However, it is the first half of most interest. And with the right balance positioned between risk and reward, I opted for no goals scored in the clash between Borussia Dortmund and Chelsea.

As hinted above, no manager wants to suffer a large enough defeat that a Champions League exit could soon follow. And when added to misfiring attacks for both teams, the first 45 minutes may amount to nothing more than light sparring. 

This is why the 0-0 tie at the break offers so much appeal. In comparison, a full-time bore carries odds of +950. But, in backing the first 45 to end even, it still allows a 1-1 tie to activate the second winner above.

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