Boise State vs. UNLV Odds, Picks, Predictions: Mountain West Championship Upset?
No. 10 Boise State takes on No. 20 UNLV in one of the biggest Group of Five matchups ever — a de facto play-in game to the College Football Playoff. The Broncos have strung together a storybook campaign, going 11-1 straight up, with their only loss coming at the final horn against top-ranked Oregon. Meanwhile, the Rebels earned a trip to Albertsons Stadium when Fresno State upset Colorado State in Week 13, delivering the highly-anticipated rematch. Let’s examine which side I’ve bet on among the odds for Boise State vs. UNLV in Friday’s Mountain West title game.
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boise state vs. unlv: spread, moneyline, total
Will Rebels Earn Revenge?
The current line of Broncos -4.5 is eerily identical to the spread from their first meeting (-4) on Oct. 25. Boise State narrowly covered by a final score of 29-24, benefiting heavily from an interception just before halftime. Spencer Danielson’s bunch also profited from fourth-down variance, converting on all four attempts, including the game-winning touchdown.
Additionally, UNLV outgained Boise State by 1.4 yards per play (YPP). Given the adjustment above, the market has accounted for these variables. I still fancy the road underdog, playing with house money.
In Week 9, the Runnin’ Rebels limited Heisman hopeful Ashton Jeanty to 3.9 yards per attempt — his lowest rushing efficiency this season. Granted, Jeanty suffered a left elbow injury midway through and generated 128 yards on the ground with a score.
Additionally, he may prosper more on his home turf than on an artificial surface. That said, his explosive tendencies were held in check, which isn’t a fluke. UNLV’s opponents have notched the eighth-worst rushing success rate across FBS. Barry Odom’s unit even ranks 21st in adjusted line yards allowed.
Conversely, Rebels quarterback Hajj-Malik Williams has delivered 2,503 total yards with seven rushing touchdowns. Thanks to Williams’ duel-threat nature, Matthew Sluka’s early departure seemingly boosted UNLV’s offensive ceiling.
With wind unlikely to play a factor, the grad transfer should have time to take advantage of the Broncos’ secondary, positioned near the D-I average in dropback success rate allowed.
Final Thoughts
I have only bet on a handful of college football contests this year, going 5-3 (+1.90 units). I’ll add another with UNLV +4.5. Join our free sports betting Discord channel to receive instant alerts whenever I fire a bet.
boise state vs. unlv odds: player props
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