4 Potential PGA TOUR Golf Sleeper Picks: BMW Championship

Written By John Haslbauer on August 16, 2022
bmw championship picks

The second leg of the FedEx Cup Playoffs takes us to Wilmington, Delaware for the first time in PGA TOUR history, as we head to the South course at Wilmington Country Club for potential longshot BMW Championship picks. I too will be taking my talents to Delaware for the final round on Sunday, so come reach out if you’ll be in attendance too!

Last year’s BMW Championship at Caves Valley was one of the more memorable conclusions on the season, as Patrick Cantlay rode a historic putting performance of 14.6 strokes gained on the greens to get the better of Bryson DeChambeau, and ultimately led to securing him FedEx Cup Champion and Player of the Year honors. A spot in the field at East Lake is at stake this week, and is still attainable for all remaining players in the BMW field, which means the intensity will be up, and focus will be refined.

With a limited field encompassing only the top-70 remaining players in the FedEx Cup standings, we’ll look through four possible 2022 BMW Championship picks among sleepers in this week’s golf oddsClick on the odds anywhere below to bet now on the best available prices in your state. 

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COURSE INTRODUCTION

As the days have gone on this week, the difficulty of how this course will go on to play still remains largely a mystery. From my perspective after going over all the holes on property, I expect to see very average scoring conditions and anticipate players will need to hit a mark of about -16 in order to come out on top.

Wilmington Country Club is an expansive Delaware property which features narrow fairways, thick rough, and massive firm and fast Bentgrass greens. As a 7,534 par-71, there is just one par-5 on property reachable in two, with two additional 600+ yarders that are sure to be three shot holes for the entire field. The course also features a concentration of three 200+ yard par-3s and six par-4s between 400-450 yards.

For a deeper dive into the course, read my BMW Championship preview. Without any further delay, let’s get to our BMW Championship picks with a focus on longshots and sleepers for your DFS lineups.

POTENTIAL SLEEPER BMW CHAMPIONSHIP PICKS

From a golf betting perspective, my outrights are already set and I don’t plan to dip any further beyond 35-1 odds in an event like this which has generated very few surprises over its history in the FedEx Cup Playoffs. With that said, there is still value in a limited field at the bottom of the board, whether it be for Each Way or placement considerations.

In terms of DFS, it’s a great week to be contrarian on ownership, as any prevailing narratives that develop certain players into chalk this week are simply guesswork to how this course will play out. With a solid field of the best 70 players on the 2022 PGA TOUR remaining, it’s one of the most viable weeks of the year to commit to a stars and scrubs type build, with some high upside in store from the bottom of this board.

Below, find my favorite value leverage plays and longshots for the 2022 BMW Championship. Stats pulled across Last 36 Rounds unless otherwise noted.

Taylor Pendrith (, $7,400)

It’s not a pre-requisite to be long off the tee in order to contend at Wilmington Country Club, but there’s no question a little extra distance is going to help navigate this 7.5K+ track. Pendrith ranks top-5 in driving distance in this week’s field, which is a nice luxury to have on a course which features tight fairways, thick rough, and massive greens to catch approaches with less spin. From an off-the-tee standpoint, Pendrith remains amongst the elites on TOUR, as he’s gained 2+ strokes OTT in nine of his last ten starts, good enough for No. 5 overall over that span.

He proved he is in fact human post-injury after breaking a streak of five consecutive top-20 finishes at the FedEx St. Jude last week, but Wilmington Country Club sets up to be a great bounce back opportunity for Pendrith compared to last week’s point and shoot set up at TPC Southwind. His career-long putting metrics drastically improve on Bentgrass compared to Bermuda, which puts me at ease to ignore the 6 strokes lost on the greens last week. He’s found success early in his career on courses like Winged Foot (T23), Torrey Pines (T16), and Detroit Golf Club (T2) which reward a heavy dosage of drivers. Despite all the win equity tied to the top of the board, I’m drawn to Pendrith to continue this heater on the cusp of a Presidents Cup nomination to close out the season.

Mito Pereira (, $7,100)

It’s been a minute since I talked about Mito Pereira’s prospects at a golf tournament. As the 2022 season comes to a close, I have grown more and more wary over Mito’s future on the PGA TOUR. As an astute follower on Instagram, he’s unfortunately spent more time test driving exotic cars in Florida with his friends Carlos Ortiz, Abraham Ancer, and Sergio Garcia than on the range or in competition, which has been a daunting throughline for the other would-be LIV defectors. I’ll have an official statement prepared if Mito does turn to the dark side post-Presidents Cup as I fear, but for now, we’ll pretend all is well and that the BMW Championship is just another business trip for our favorite Chilean.

Mito’s results have taken a nosedive since the Memorial with four MCs and a T42 at last week’s FedEx St. Jude since. I’m willing to chalk the Scottish and British Open performances off as simply a poor course fit on unfamiliar terrain, and if we’re willing to simply throw those away, his ball-striking remains in a top class with the rest of this field. Mito ranks top-10 in both SG: APP and SG: T2G over the last 36 rounds, so some extra time on the putting greens is all it may take to get him back in the mix again.

Kurt Kitayama (, $6,000)

I’m not going to call this Caves Valley Part. II, especially without rain in the forecast, but Wilmington Country Club sure does shape up to be another venue that lends itself to bombers. With that being the case, I’m latching on to a player like Kitayama who possesses an elite skillset in driving distance (No. 7) at the bare minimum price on Draft Kings.

Kitayama has three top-3 finishes this year between the Scottish Open, Mexico Open, and Honda Classic, which each reward a driver-heavy approach. While the competition in store at the BMW Championship is much steeper, it’s still encouraging to see a player at this price tag with that type of upside. And although he’s coming off of a disappointing missed cut at the FedEx St. Jude, the form still isn’t far away with a T2 and T20 within his last three prior starts.

Kitayama is still searching for his first career PGA TOUR victory, but he’s no stranger to closing out tournaments with two DP World Tour victories to his name since 2019. Wilmington Country Club should suit his game of distance and strong ball-striking well, and while an outright may be asking for too much, I’ll be looking his way in DFS and the top-20 betting markets this week.

Luke List (, $6,000)

Okay who am I kidding, my player pool is going to be predominantly bombers this week, and I’m very content to double down in the flat $6K range at an event where the full field is guaranteed four rounds of action. Don’t let the four consecutive missed cuts fool you, List remains in solid form entering this week having gained strokes ball striking in 11 of his last 12 events, highlighted by 10 strokes gained on Approach at the Travelers Championship five starts ago. The issue, as is always the case with Luke List throughout his career, has been the short game. At the minimum price on Draft Kings, I’m content to live with a stroke or two lost on the greens if the ball striking alone can afford us a top-20 ceiling.

Torrey Pines is an imperfect comp to Wilmington Country Club given the significant different in green sizes, but the hole layouts from tee to green featuring narrow fairways and thick rough would suggest that ball striking prowess at Torrey Pines can translate over to here as well, which is a good sign for the 2022 Farmers Insurance Open champion.

Best of luck making your BMW Championship picks!

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Written by
John Haslbauer

John Haslbauer writes about golf betting and advanced golf metrics for TheLines.com. He is a passionate golf fan, golf writer, and (casual) golfer. A graduate at Syracuse University, John works out of Jersey City as a Director of Media Strategy for HBO and HBO Max. He created the website thepgatout.com at the start of 2021 and is active on Twitter (@PGATout). No, he is not a tout. The Twitter handle is a joke. Touts are lame. We hate touts.

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