2024 BMW Championship Preview: Everything To Know About Castle Pines Golf Club

The BMW Championship heads to Colorado to continue the PGA TOUR’s 2024 FedEx Cup Playoffs at Castle Pines GC. The top 50 qualify for the field, a change from the usual rules of the top 70. Find longer golf odds at the best sports betting sites to increase your potential BMW Championship payouts. Scottie Scheffler, Xander Schauffele, and Rory McIlroy are the favorites for this year’s BMW Championship.

For the love of elevation (in my best Linda Kohn voice)! A rare glimpse of Mountain Golf has reached the PGA TOUR, as we head to Castle Pines Golf Club just outside of Denver, Colorado, to host the 2024 BMW Championship for the first time since 2006.

The BMW Championship has a reputation of extreme scoring, with a mixed bag of stern tests and pure birdie fests over recent years. While it remains to be seen how exactly the scoring will play out with the field of 50 seeing this course in a tournament setting for the first time, I expect this to factor somewhere in between. Castle Pines will make headlines as the longest course in the history of the PGA TOUR, standing over 8,100 yards. However with a closer look at the course breakdown in this article, this course is far from a bomber’s delight after factoring for elevation change.

In short, Castle Pines should continue to reward in-form players who excel at total driving, mid-iron approach play, and scrambling around nuanced, firm & fast Bent-Poa greens. Ahead, we’ll go through everything you need to know about Castle Pines Golf Club in preparation for the 2024 BMW Championship.

bmw CHAMPIONSHIP ODDS: THE FAVORITES

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Here are the favorites with odds shorter than 20-1 this week. Click on the odds and navigate to the sportsbook for longshots.

THE FIELD AT A GLANCE

For the second leg of the FedEx Cup Playoffs, the field has been cut down from the top 70 in the FedEx Cup Standings to the best 50 players remaining. With no cut, we will once again see four rounds from all 50. The BMW Championship has historically hosted a field of 70, so players will perform in more exclusive company this week.

As expected in the playoffs, it’s a loaded field once again. All eligible OWGR top-25 players on the PGA TOUR will be teeing it up in Colorado this week. All players will vie for a top-30 position in the FedEx Cup standings after this week in order to qualify for both the TOUR Championship and full suite of PGA TOUR Signature Events on the 2025 season.

As of this writing on Sunday morning, the top-50 bubble remains to be determined. Presently, Justin Rose, Harris English, Nick Taylor, Max Greyserman, Nick Dunlap, and Eric Cole each stand around that bubble, with consequential Sunday rounds in store to punch their tickets to Denver.

Mastering golf courses at elevation is an acquired skill, so players like Wyndham Clark (born and raised in Colorado), Collin Morikawa (practicing out of The Summit Club at 3,000-feet elevation), and Patrick Cantlay (sustained success at courses like TPC Summerlin at 3,500 feet elevation) may give these players a subtle edge this week.

Viktor Hovland is your defending BMW Championship winner, using his victory at Olympia Fields as a launching pad to claim the 2023 FedEx Cup title in the following week. Patrick Cantlay, Justin Thomas, Keegan Bradley, Jason Day, Billy Horschel, Rory McIlroy, and Justin Rose join Hovland as past winners.

INTRODUCTION TO Castle Pines

Castle Pines is a new, modern venue designed by Jack Nicklaus in 1981. It was designed with the vision of becoming “Augusta National in the Mountains”, and at least cosmetically, has delivered on that dream with a perfectly manicured plot of land surrounded by the beautiful scenery of the Rocky Mountains. At inception, the goal was to create a Major championship-caliber venue in the Mountains, and it will get its first true audition for future Major consideration this week, as Castle Pines has not hosted a PGA TOUR event since the 2006 International Tournament. This will mark the first time a PGA TOUR standard stroke play event will be contested in the state of Colorado.

Accounting for Elevation

For the love of elevation (can we get Linda Kohn on the call this week?)! Sitting just outside of Denver, Colorado, Castle Pines will offer a unique view into Mountain Golf on the PGA TOUR, with added calculations needed to account for the thinner air at elevation, and many steep elevation changes throughout the course’s routing. At 6,500 feet above sea level, the ball travels roughly 10% farther here.

At 8,130 yards, Castle Pines will break records as the longest course in PGA TOUR history. However, after calculating for adjustments to carry distance here, its true playing distance will not be nearly as long as the scorecard suggests. Taking the 10% distance adjustment into account, this course will actually play closer to 7,317 yards, for more tamable for a par-72 golf course. As such, I will be deprioritizing the importance of long iron approach play, instead concentrating on well-rounded iron play suitable for most moderate-distance golf courses.

We don’t see a ton of mountain golf on the PGA TOUR. However, Tahoe Mountain Club, The Summit Club, and TPC Colorado each offer a glimpse into the types of players who fare best on courses played at elevation. Tahoe Mountain Club, the host of the Barracuda Championship, is the best reference point for pure Mountain Golf terrain on TOUR. In its short history, it has proven to be the only 7,400+ yard course to draw repeatable success from accurate plodders like Collin Morikawa, Chez Reavie, Joel Dahmen, and JJ Spaun. The 2021 CJ Cup at the Summit Club did not offer quite the same Mountain backdrop, but was played at elevation 3,000 feet above sea level. Here, we saw more parity between bombers and plodders, with Rory McIlroy narrowly edging out Collin Morikawa (a member at the Summit Club).

Looking beyond PGA TOUR results, TPC Colorado – host of The Ascendant Korn Kerry Tour event – is a good reference point for what style of player translates to Colorado golf. Similar to Castel Pines, TPC Colorado plays to a gaudy 7,991 yards as a par-72 but does not play nearly as long as the scorecard would suggest, accounting for elevation. Will Zalatoris is a notable past champion at TPC Colorado, and least on that venue, bombers had proven to claim a slight edge over fairway-finders, with other long hitters like Paul Barjon, Taylor Pendrith, Alejandro Tosti, Max Greyserman, Parker Coody, and Trevor Cone finding success.

In short, distance is not the end-all-be all for success on long Mountain courses at elevation, but I will view it as an added bonus, as it will also afford strategic players the option to club down for accuracy where necessary.

How It Breaks Down

I won’t get as caught up in dissecting the exact concentration of hole ranges this week, as these yardages will not be comparable to other PGA TOUR venues played at elevation. The course itself is played on a blended Bent-Poa mix from fairway to green, similar agronomy to what we typically see in the northern United States or Canada. The rough is thick, 4-inch Kentucky Bluegrass, giving a similar look and feel to Nicklaus’ Valhalla Golf Club. The greens are firm and fast at Castle Pines, drawing similarities to Nicklaus’ other prized venue, Muirfield Village, which also requires players to use the ground and feed off of the nuanced contours of the greens.

Water hazards come into play on 10 holes at Castle Pines, strategically lining the fairways and greens. While fairway width is fairly generous at Castle Pines, this is by no means a bomb-and-gouge course. Players will be penalized for wayward drives between the pine trees that neighbor each fairway, water hazards, thick rough, and strategically placed bunkers.

For Castle Pines GC course specs, hole-by-hole breakdown with yardages, and past BMW Championship winners with their pre-tournament odds, visit our BMW Championship betting odds page.

Event HISTORY AND COURSE COMPS

With no course history to speak of at Castle Pines this week, we can instead look to BMW Championship Event history to approximate those who step up to the plate at this stage of the FedEx Cup playoffs. While there is no correlated pattern that connects the recent array of BMW Championship venues, it is still worth referencing performance under pressure.

Looking at results over the last five years, the top-10 in Event History at the BMW Championship are: Patrick Cantlay, Rory McIlroy, Scottie Scheffler, Taylor Pendrith, Matt Fitzpatrick, Christiaan Bezuidenhout, Sam Burns, Adam Scott, Sungjae Im, and Corey Conners. Cantlay’s name has become synonymous with the BMW of late, picking up victories at both Caves Valley and Wilmington Country Club over that span.

Course Comps

With no course history to lean on, I will be putting a much heavier emphasis on comp courses this week that embody many of the same characteristics as Castle Pines. Those defining characteristics include massive properties with dramatic elevation change, a need to account for altitude’s effect on distances, firm and fast Bent-Poa greens, and the overall influence of a Jack Nicklaus design.

There is no perfect comp course on the regular PGA TOUR rotation, however I would define Castle Pines as a mix between Augusta National, Muirfield Village, and Shadow Creek. Augusta National should be the goalpost for any new course to emulate, but Castle Pines’ agronomy and massive landscape actually allowed for the architects to come as close as possible to its goal of creating Augusta National in the Mountains. Unlike Augusta, however, there is far more of a penalty for wayward drives at Castle Pines, placing more of a premium on Total Driving.

Muirfield Village passes the eye test as yet another beautifully manicured Jack Nicklaus design with reasonably wide landing areas in the fairway, but a steep penalty for more significant misses off the tee and on approach. Like Muirfield Village, Castle Pines also features firm and fast greens that require players to use the ground to reach certain tucked pin locations.

And while we’ve only seen one PGA TOUR event at Shadow Creek, its combination of length at elevation on well-manicured fairways and greens should offer a very similar look and feel for players.

On a secondary basis, I’ll also be referencing performance at Tahoe Mountain Club, Caves Valley, Valhalla Golf Club, TPC Summerlin, and The Summit Club for their combination of altitude, elevation changes, and/or Jack Nicklaus design.

Combine performance across this list, and the top-10 players in Comp Course History here are Ludvig Aberg, Xander Schauffele, Wyndham Clark, Scottie Scheffler, Russell Henley, Tommy Fleetwood, Justin Thomas, Collin Morikawa, JT Poston, and Eric Cole.

KEY STATS TO CONSIDER WITH BMW championship ODDS

• Recent Form (SG: TOT L16)
• SG: T2G
• SG: APP
• Driving Distance / Driving Accuracy
• Scrambling Gained / SG: ARG
• Bogey Avoidance
• SG: P (Bent-Poa) / SG: P (Firm & Fast greens)
• BMW Championship Event History
• Comp Course History

When in doubt, start modeling with SG: T2G to prioritize the top-trending players leading into the week. I’ll be doing just that in a week like this with such limited prior course history data. The top-10 players in SG: T2G are Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, Hideki Matsuyama, Aaron Rai, Ludvig Aberg, Collin Morikawa, Davis Thompson, Xander Schauffele, Tony Finau, and Corey Conners.

Approach play is pivotal on any given week. Even though these greens are slightly above average in size, the most precise players with their irons can still capitalize on some expected tight pin locations. The top-10 players in SG: APP entering this week are Scottie Scheffler, Xander Schauffele, Tony Finau, Aaron Rai, Sepp Straka, Ludvig Aberg, Corey Conners, Rory McIlroy, Collin Morikawa, and Tom Kim.

Total Driving — a weighted average of Driving Distance and Accuracy — is crucial in weeks like these where where thick rough and water hazards around the fairways can be so penal. There are just nine players who rank above average in terms of both Driving Distance and Driving Accuracy: Scottie Scheffler, Xander Schauffele, Ludvig Aberg, Corey Conners, Keegan Bradley, Davis Thompson, Tom Kim, Taylor Pendrith, and Austin Eckroat.

The ideal player for this week should be above average in Comp Course History, Total Driving, SG: T2G, and SG: APP. Seven players meet each of those criteria: Scottie Scheffler, Xander Schauffele, Ludvig Aberg, Tommy Fleetwood, Davis Thompson, Tom Kim, and Sahith Theegala.

2024 bmw CHAMPIONSHIP ODDS: DFS PLAYER POOL

With all the course-fit profiles in mind, I’m leaning early toward the below player pool. Naturally, I’m looking their way in the 2024 BMW Championship odds as well. I’ve broken the list down by projected pricing/odds tier for DraftKings.  

UNDERDOG GOLF DRAFT RANKINGS TIERS

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Tier 1

Xander Schauffele
Scottie Scheffler
Rory McIlroy

Tier 2

Viktor Hovland
Patrick Cantlay
Tony Finau
Collin Morikawa

Tier 3

Wyndham Clark
Sepp Straka

Tier 4

Taylor Pendrith
Eric Cole
Will Zalatoris
Davis Thompson

Tier 5

Max Greyserman
Ben Griffin
Austin Eckroat

bmw CHAMPIONSHIP ODDS: MODEL RESULTS & BREAKDOWN

2024 BMW Championship Model Breakdown

In my model, I’m emphasizing SG: T2G, SG: APP, Comp Course History, Weighted Putting (L36, Bent-Poa, and Firm & Fast Conditions), followed by a more balanced mix of Driving Distance, Fairways Gained, Bogey Avoidance, and Scrambling Gained.

Model Favorites

To no surprise, Scottie Scheffler remains the man to beat, according to my model this week. He’s looked a bit human this week in Memphis, though still entering Sunday with the second-best odds to win anyway. A quirky mountain set up gives me pause to hand the trophy over to Scottie from the get-go, however a course the combines equal parts of Augusta National and Muirfield Village is still plenty of reason to fear the World No. 1 in Colorado.

After Scheffler, the rest of my model’s top 10 features Xander Schauffele, Rory McIlroy, Collin Morikawa, Ludvig Aberg, Aaron Rai, Sungjae Im, Tony Finau, Tommy Fleetwood, and Davis Thompson.

When the odds open on Monday, I’ll look to center my card around Collin Morikawa, Patrick Cantlay, and Tony Finau, depending on where the odds ultimately fall.

Check back in later this week for more updates, and best of luck navigating the 2024 BMW Championship odds!

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BMW Championship Odds Comparison Table