BMW Championship Odds: Final Round PGA TOUR Golf Bets

Written By Tyler Duke | Last Updated
Farmers Insurance odds Scottie Scheffler

The second FedExCup Playoffs event of the season is the BMW Championship, which moves around sites across the United States each year. Last holding the tournament in 2020, Olympia Fields is a major championship venue and stern test that is challenging the best players in the world this year outside of Chicago, Illinois. With the top 50 players in the FedExCup standings teeing it up, 20 players will see their seasons end a week before the ludicrous TOUR Championship at East Lake in Atlanta, Georgia. It’s worth monitoring the players who need to finish highly to make it in the top 30 when checking out the BMW Championship odds board, as it’s an extra motivation factor for placement finishes.

The BMW Championship has tended to be one of the hardest tournaments on the PGA TOUR as it regularly visits some difficult venues that set up the course hard. It’s always a no-cut event, and a couple dozen players are playing for their right to play for an incredible purse next week in Atlanta.

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Tournament Recap Through First Three Rounds

It was apparent early on Thursday that Olympia Fields was playing much differently than it did in 2020. Four under was enough then to get into a playoff, which Jon Rahm eventually won over Dustin Johnson. There were only a handful of players able to break par, and Olympia Fields truly looked like the U.S. Open venue that it is. But plenty of rain and moisture in the area took away that possibility this week, as the bent grass greens have been unable to dry out enough to repel balls coming from unideal areas. That’s allowed wayward drivers to still hack it out of the rough and find the green at times.

It could also be argued that a wet course opened itself it up to more types of players, too, and Thursday showed that. The lead was shared at 5 under by bomber Rory McIlroy and Open Championship winner Brian Harman … who is far from a bomber. It was the usual formula for the lefty, as he gained a ton on the field in both approach and putter while still losing off the tee. McIlroy hit just three fairways, but he still managed to be 10th in off the teem, showing that playing from the rough was plenty manageable. His short game was also brilliant, which tends to be the key for him managing to win.

Wet Olympia Fields gives up multiple course records

But McIlroy’s inability to find fairways did hurt him on Friday, and he was able to get nothing going in an even-par 70 that dropped him back. Harman managed to stay in the picture with a 68, but it was Max Homa who stole the show with a course-record 62 to take the outright lead. Homa was elite throughout the bag and gained an outrageous 4.31 strokes on the greens along with 2.78 ball striking. Chris Kirk was solo second, but a disastrous 75 on Saturday dropped him far down the leaderboard.

Homa suffered a similar fate, though not as bad. His 71 drops him to solo fourth and now a pretty big number on the BMW Championship odds board. He never recovered from a triple bogey on the 7th hole. Scottie Scheffler’s 64 took the No. 1 player in the world straight up the leaderboard on moving day to grab a share of the lead. Scheffler is now set to enter East Lake as the No. 1 seed after Jon Rahm’s struggles. Matt Fitzpatrick, a player who went to college in the Chicago area, joined Scheffler with a 66 to get to 11 under. Harman (-10), Homa (-9), Viktor Hovland (-8) and McIlroy (-8) round out the top 5.

Final Round PGA TOUR Golf Bets To Consider

Winner: Scottie Scheffler

Preferred Odds: +150

I can’t get myself to pick against Scottie Scheffler on Sunday. The World No. 1 has been a bit quiet for his standards of late as the ball striking has very slightly dropped off and the putter continues to be a disaster. But a tough major championship venue will always bring out the best in the world due to the strain on quality ball striking. Scheffler has delivered.

The Texan is solo first in both SG: Off the Tee and SG: Approach, which is extremely impressive and difficult to do. He’s also 7th around the greens, which means his -0.44 strokes lost on the greens hasn’t bothered him too bad. It’s fair to be concerned with the flat stick, but Scheffler often hits it too well for it to matter. That’s even more so the case on a course like this. While there’s plenty of strong names behind him, I trust Scheffler to put himself in the right spots to post a solid number. Fitzpatrick’s play has been inconsistent this year, and Harman just doesn’t have as much firepower on a course like this compared to what he did in Liverpool a few weeks ago.

I don’t mind taking this number at plus odds with a share of the 54-hole lead considering he often tees off on Thursdays at +700.

Winner: Viktor Hovland

Preferred Odds: +1400

It’s worth taking a shot on an unlikely chaser if we’re grabbing Scheffler at a low number, so my pick is Viktor Hovland. The Norwegian currently sits in a tie for 5th at 8 under, three shots back of the co-lead. Hovland has done what he’s done plenty in recent weeks as some slow rounds to start put him way behind. But a strong 65 on Saturday shot him up the leaderboard to get in the mix for the final round.

Hovland is doing it as he usually does … an elite driver. He’s gained more than 3 shots off the tee and ranks 3rd in the field there. With how demanding this course can be off the tee, it’s a huge advantage for Hovland to be extremely accurate while also plenty above average in distance. He sits 2nd in accuracy off the tee this week and 14th in distance. The irons have been solid enough, but that’s also where there’s room for improvement. He’s only 18th with the irons through three rounds, but we know Hovland can get as hot as anyone in approach.

Considering the putter has been great so far, it just takes one round of Viktor finding fire with his irons to easily make a charge on this leaderboard. This is a pretty juicy number for one of the best players in the world who is only three shots back of the lead.

Top-10 Finish: Justin Rose

Best Odds Still Available:

My final pick for Sunday will be one that has some motivation to play his best golf on Sunday for a placement. Justin Rose’s 65 on Friday and 68 on Friday has him in a tie for 7th and inside the top 30 for the TOUR Championship. He started the week in 32nd, needing a solid performance to find his way back to Atlanta. Rose won the FedExCup in 2018 when Tiger Woods stole the show by winning the TOUR Championship itself.

Rose hasn’t quite been himself since that season, but 2023 has been kind to him after winning at Pebble Beach. He’s been inconsistent as of late, but there have been some great rounds to show some life here. Rose is currently gaining nicely in every category but off the tee, which isn’t surprising for him at this stage of his career. With the course getting a bit more difficult, I like Rose’s experience on Sunday to get things done and ensure he can post a number that gets him to Atlanta.

BMW Championship Odds

Click on any of the odds below to bet now and compare across sportsbooks in your state to ensure you are maximizing your potential profits before the final round on Sunday. Best of luck with BMW Championship odds.