PGA TOUR Golf Bets: 2024 BMW Championship Final Thoughts, Betting Card, OAD

BMW Championship bets are next on tap at the best golf betting sites, as Castle Pines Golf Club gets ready to host in Colorado. First-round play begins Thursday. Scottie Scheffler, Xander Schauffele, and Rory McIlroy headline BMW Championship bets this week, as John Haslbauer provides his favorite picks among all the golf odds for this tourney. Below, you’ll find the best odds across betting apps for each player.

The 2024 FedEx Cup Playoffs are in full swing now, with Castle Pines Golf Club next up to host the second leg of the playoffs, the 2024 BMW Championship. The top 50 in the FedEx Cup Standings will compete for a spot in the TOUR Championship field next week, with the top 30 advancing from Castle Pines.

Best BMW Championship Odds

Click the odds anywhere in this article to place BMW Championship wagers. For a full breakdown of the tournament and course, visit my BMW Championship preview. 

HOW I BUILT MY bmw Championship BETTING CARD

A new course on the PGA TOUR, it remains to be seen how exactly Castle Pines will play. With that said, despite its gaudy 8,130-yard distance on the scorecard, it should not play diabolically long after accounting for travel distance at 6,300 feet of elevation. From what we know about the course so far, it should reward Total Driving, elite approach play, and Scrambling around firm and fast Bent-Poa greens. Below, we’ll go through my FedEx St Jude Championship bets.

I’m not a huge fan of these limited-field, no-cut events, as they tend to drain the betting value that typically makes golf odds so exciting. In a field of just 50 players, I don’t expect to see a surprise winner come Sunday, and I have concentrated my betting card around in-form players who have sustained a great season of high finishes on comp courses and have demonstrated elite approach play upside to separate at this course.

From a unit allocation standpoint, it’s back to business as usual for my weekly stake at the 2024 BMW Championship Open.

• Outright BMW Championship bets – 3.5U in to pay 25U each
• FRL – 0.5U in to pay out 10U+ each
• Full Tournament Matchups – 1U in to pay out 2U
• Props – 1.5U in to pay out 3U+ each

BMW Championship BETS: OUTRIGHTS (3.5 UNITS)

Odds have moved fast this week. To get notified earlier in the week to lock in the best odds, join our free sports betting Discord. Go to the #roles server to sign up for bet notifications straight to the Discord app.

TheLines.com is now partnering with Fanatics, and a new Fanatics Sportsbook promo code is offering up to $1,000 in bonus bets. Plus up to 10% back in FanCash on your golf bets that can be converted into bonus bets for future tournaments.

Editor’s Note

Collin Morikawa
My Bet: +1600
Best Available Odds:

It was a disappointing T22 finish for Morikawa at TPC Southwind last week, however, he’s shown a habit of not playing his best golf on the obvious short and positional courses that should suit his game best. In reality, Collin has been more competitive on longer venues that reward Total Driving, or simply hitting fairways with driver. In that regard, Collin ranks No. 1 in Driving Accuracy percentage leading into this week.

I’ve described Castle Pines Golf Club as a cross between Augusta National, Muirfield Village, Valhalla GC, The Summit Club, and Tahoe Mountain Club for its vast landscape, dramatic elevation change, and emphasis on Total Driving and Approach prowess. His most recent finishes on each course respectively? T3, 2nd, T4, 2nd, and 1st.

Golf Profit Boosts: All users get a 50% bet365 profit boost on any golfer to win this week. Caesars is also offering a 50% odds boost for PGA TOUR betting.

Patrick Cantlay
My Bet: +2400
Best Available Odds:

The king of the BMW Championship has finally regained form, and just at the right time with the playoffs in full swing now. After a very forgettable season by his standards, Cantlay has looked like his normal self of late wit h finishes of T3, T5, T25, and T12 over his last four starts. Encouragingly, he’s back to gaining strokes throughout his bag too, as he’s been positive across SG: Putting, SG: Around The Green, SG: APP, and SG: Off The Tee in each of those last four starts.

The BMW Championship venues bare very little in common, as his victories at Wilmington Country Club and Caves Valley required very different skillsets. But subjectively, there’s something to be said about certain players’ ability to catch fire this time of year when the playoffs are on the line.

Tony Finau
My Bet: +3400
Best Available Odds:

My featured spotlight player of the week for the 2024 BMW Championship, I’ve had Finau’s name penciled in for my betting card for several weeks now, as he simply fits the eye test for a player who should excel on a Jack Nicklaus design that emphasizes elite approach play and Scrambling around firm and fast greens. The BMW Championship has served a breakthrough “tournament in recent years for players who have been on the precipice of greatness all season, so the theme of “he’s done everything but win this season” rings true throughout my card.

Tony is having one of the best seasons of his career in terms of SG: APP, trailing only Scottie Scheffler and Xander Schauffele in that category leading in. The putter also seems to be cooperating of late, which will be the X-factor if Finau is able to remain in contention this week.

Shane Lowry
My Bet: +7000
Best Available Odds:

If Castle Pines plays the way I expect it to, a combination of Driving Accuracy and elite approach play should be what separates the contenders from the rest of the field come Sunday. Assessing the “longshots” priced at 70-1 odds or longer, no player exemplifies those two characteristics better than Lowry, who ranks top-10 in both categories.

With two top-10 finishes over his last five starts and a win earlier this season at the Zurich Classic team event alongside Rory McIlroy, there’s no question Lowry has the pedigree to hang around in contention come Sunday.

bmw championship BETS: FIRST-ROUND LEADER (0.5 UNITS)

Aaron Rai
My Bet: +4000
Best Available Odds:

A combination of elite driving accuracy and approach play will translate to success across most PGA TOUR venues, which is what makes Aaron Rai such a viable weekly FRL candidate. Unfortunately, the secret is out now on Rai after successfully conquering the Wyndham Championship, so we’ll have to settle for depressed 40-1 odds in this limited-field event. Even still, I love his prospects of finding birdies around Castle Pines, which should fairly mitigate the distance advantage for bombers.

Byeong Hun An
My Bet: +5000
Best Available Odds:

While driving distance is not a pre-requisite at Castle Pines, it can always be an asset in the FRL market, as some of the longer par-5s here may only be in reach for a select few. An is flying a bit under the radar this week with three straight top-35 finishes and two top-5s over his last 10 starts. He’s a proven birdie maker and a threat to go low whenever his putter cooperates.

Taylor Pendrith
My Bet: +5000
Best Available Odds:

Pendrith put himself in First Round Leader contention at the FedEx St. Jude Championship last week before Chris Kirk’s hole-in-one boxed him out. Streaky with his irons and putting, Pendrith is always a FRL consideration for me on courses that allow him to flex his driving distance advantage. He’s had plenty of success at altitude too, with a great track record at Tahoe Mountain Club and TPC Colorado.

bmw championship BETS: PROPS (2.5 UNITS)

Full Tournament Matchup: Collin Morikawa > Rory McIlroy
My Bet: -105

Betting against Rory McIlroy is a scary proposition, but this bet is more of an indication of my full-fledged confidence in Collin Morikawa this week. Without over-reacting too much to the results at TPC Southwind last week, McIlroy did look downright abysmal in all aspects of his game, finishing a lowly T68 out of 70 players. It’s normal for players to simply “not have it” some weeks, but those off weeks typically come with the consolation of leaving two days early to work on improving their game.

In Morikawa’s case, I expect Castle Pines to be a course that highlights his best skillsets of hitting fairways and separating from the field with his approach play. If that’s how this week ultimately plays out, then I like Morikawa’s chances over McIlroy’s.

Top-20 Finish: Taylor Pendrith
My Bet: +180
Best Available Odds:

I was able to place this exact same bet at 3-1 odds at the FedEx St. Jude Championship last week. Unfortunately we came up one stroke shy as Pendrith finished T22, but I’m not surprised to see more of an odds premium now that the field size has reduced and his form remains in tact. Pendrith now carries a streak of five top-25 finishes over his last six starts.

Top-10 Finish: Shane Lowry
My Bet: +400
Best Available Odds:

There isn’t a ton of value to be had in the placement market in a field of just 50 players, but it does seem to me like Lowy’s odds are being overlooked. Already piling up five top-10 finishes this season, Lowry has done a good job of putting himself in contention on courses that reward driving accuracy and elite approach play. He’s a top-10 approach player in this field, so if the putter cooperates, I like his chances to be in the mix come Sunday.

GOLF DAILY FANTASY CONTESTS

Check out my golf DFS picks post for the BMW Championship for Underdog drafts strategy, along with traditional DFS contests.

ONE AND DONE

My Pick: Tommy Fleetwood

We’ve reached the final week of what has unfortunately been a very forgettable OAD season for me. Winning selections of Scheffler at The Masters and Rai at the Wyndham Championship were not nearly enough to put me in the running this year, as a slow start to the season forced me to press some contrarian OAD selections in the hopes of regaining position.

In any case, if you don’t use ’em, you lose ’em now, so I’m rolling out my best player available – Tommy Fleetwood. Fleetwood did not jump out to me in particular as a betting value this week, however the current state of his game is well-rounded enough to compete on any given course, especially one like Castle Pines which emphasizes Total Driving and Approach play.

If not Fleetwood, I would also consider playing Billy Horschel, Collin Morikawa, or Tony Finau in OAD.

That’ll do it for this week’s PGA TOUR golf bets. Best of luck this week with your own BMW Championship bets, and see you on Sunday for the TOUR Championship preview.

• Join TheLines.com’s free sports betting Discord — with over 4,000 community members and our staff sharing ideas daily.

bmw championship BETS: THE CARD