2023 BMW Championship Bets: Final Thoughts, Golf Betting Card, One And Done

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Written By John Haslbauer | Last Updated
bmw championship bets

The PGA TOUR’s FedEx Cup Playoffs continue on this Thursday with the second round, the BMW Championship. It is the second of three playoff events, with the top-50 players now remaining before a final cut down to 30 for the TOUR Championship. Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy and John Rahm are the favorites this week, as John Haslbauer provides his favorite BMW Championship bets among all the golf odds offered this week. Below you’ll find the best sports betting odds available on each player.

It’s been a long week of recovery from bachelor party festivities, but it’s good to be back with a clear head and mind for the penultimate event of the 2023 PGA TOUR season. With a field of only 50 players remaining at the 2023 BMW Championship, Olympia Fields will be packed with the best players on the PGA TOUR yet again.

A former major championship venue, I expect Olympia Fields to pack a punch, rewarding those in trending form with proven success on comparable difficult scoring venues.

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HOW I BUILT MY BMW CHAMPIONSHIP BETTING CARD

In a field of just 50 players, I’m an advocate of spreading exposure across a wider group of players, playing the percentages to find at least one player in the mix come Sunday. Starting my card at 25-1 odds this week, I’ve gotten exposure to five players within the usual weekly unit allocation, which is 10% of the total field.

In terms of unit allocations for my card this week, it’s back to business as usual for my weekly PGA TOUR exposure:

  • Outrights – 3U in to pay 24U each
  • FRL – 0.5U in to pay out 10U+ each
  • Props – 3U in to pay out 3U+ each

Click on any of the BMW Championship odds below for the best available prices across sportsbooks in your state.

BMW CHAMPIONSHIP BETS: OUTRIGHTS (3 UNITS)

Tommy Fleetwood

My Bet: +2500
Best Available Odds:

This is not a fun or comfortable number to bet a player who has never before won a PGA TOUR event, going up against one of the most top-heavy fields of the season. But, that’s the nature of these limited field events, as less opponents means less resistance, and therefore shorter odds across the board. In difficult conditions that will simulate that of a major, I’m okay buying high on Fleetwood, who has consistently played himself into the mix in difficult scoring conditions throughout his career, and enters with no questions about his current form in all facets of his game.

The No. 8 player in my model this week, Fleetwood ranks above-average in every single key stat category I pulled for. With five top-10s over his last six starts, it feels as if a win soon is inevitable.

Max Homa

My Bet: +2800
Best Available Odds:

It’s been awhile since I went back to Homa in the outright market, as he is the type of player that has historically trended into his wins. With finishes of T21, T12, T10, and T6 over his last four starts, that’s about as linear of a trend line as we can ask for. Lack of performance in majors continues to be a stain on his resume, however the major-adjacent events which impose the toughest tests on the PGA TOUR have always been where he excels best.

Homa’s career wins at Quail Hollow, TPC Potomac, and Torrey Pines all serve as very strong comps to the conditions that lie in store at Olympia Fields. Chasing his third win of the 2023 season this week, I see plenty of value in this number for a proven closer.

Hideki Matsuyama

My Bet: +3500
Best Available Odds:

My featured spotlight player of the week, Matsuyama was my field bet at the 2023 BMW Championship. His T3 at Olympia Fields in 2020 is an encouraging sign that his elite ball striking and touch around the greens can translate well in these difficult scoring conditions.

Despite his reputation for volatility due to injury concerns, Matsuyama has sustained a remarkably consistent season when healthy, finished inside the top-35 in 11 of his last 13 starts dating back to THE PLAYERS. Riding the momentum of a solid T16 showing at last week’s FedEx St. Jude Championship, I like Matsuyama’s chances to add another high finish at Olympia Fields to his resume.

Keegan Bradley

My Bet: +7000
Best Available Odds:

As I continue to lean on TPC Potomac as a top comp course to Olympia Fields, it would tough to leave Keegan Bradley off the card at nearly triple the odds of Homa. Like Homa, Keegan is also a two-time PGA TOUR winner this season, and has strung along plenty of high finishes on long and difficult Bentgrass courses with thick and penal rough. That resume includes top-10 finishes at Torrey Pines, Bay Hill, and The Country Club over the past year.

With one last shot to make an impression on Zach Johnson for the USA Ryder Cup team, I expect a motivated Keegan Bradley to be dialed in on a course that plays to his strengths of accurate ball striking well.

Adam Schenk

My Bet: +13000
Best Available Odds:

I bet Adam Schenk outright as one of the biggest longshots on the board at last week’s FedEx St. Jude Championship, and I have no issue doing the same again this week after an impressive T6 showing. I would argue that Olympia Fields is much better suited to Schenk’s game than TPC Southwind, as he ranks top-10 in Driving Distance and Prox: 125-175.

With five top-10s over his last nine starts, I have no concerns taking a shot on the triple-digit odds in a field of just 50 players.

BMW CHAMPIONSHIP FIRST-ROUND LEADER BETS (0.5 UNITS)

Byeong Hun An

My Bet: +4500
Best Available Odds:

One of the first players left off my outright card, I still love Byeong Hun An’s fit for Olympia Fields, as he continues to excel with his driving and short game. He paced the field on Thursday at the Genesis Scottish Open four starts ago, and then finished one stroke off the first round lead two weeks later at the Wyndham Championship, so there’s no doubt he’s capable of getting out to a hot start.

Keegan Bradley

My Bet: +4500
Best Available Odds:

Value is relative in a field of just 50 players, but 45-1 just seems too long for a player like Bradley who’s built a reputation for getting off to hot starts on Thursdays. His improved putting has unlocked a new gear for birdie opportunities this season, and he’ll be motivated for a strong start out the gates with a spot on the Ryder Cup team on the line.

Adam Schenk

My Bet: +7000
Best Available Odds:

Schenk’s elite rankings in Driving Distance, SG: Approach, and SG: Putting are the perfect combination needed to go low at Olympia Fields. He continues to trend as one of the hottest golfers in this field with five top-10 finishes over the last three months, so I expect that form to continue down the closing stretch of the FedEx Cup playoffs.

BMW CHAMPIONSHIP PROPS (3 UNITS)

Top-10 Finish: Patrick Cantlay

My Bet: -105
Best Available Odds:

Playoff Pat continues to impress in August, as the reigning two-time BMW Championship winner added to his resume with a strong runner up finish at last week’s FedEx St. Jude Championship. Elite in Total Driving, Olympia Fields is yet another venue where Cantlay’s skillsets should separate from the pack. Without any glaring weaknesses in his game at the moment, I like his chances to finish in the top 20% of the field this week.

Top-20 Finish: Adam Schenk

My Bet: +250
Best Available Odds:

I’m fully onboard with Adam Schenk as my favorite value play this week. I’m not alone on that take, as he’ll be a popular play in DFS too, but he’s really the only “longshot” I believe has a very viable shot at placing in the top 40% of this loaded field. With top-20 finishes at the Memorial and Farmers Insurance Open earlier this season, I have little doubt as to whether his game can translate to a high finish at Olympia Fields.

Winning Margin: Decided By Playoff

My Bet: +400

It’s not easy to find a ton of value in the prop market with a field of just 50 players. So instead of forcing another placement bet on the card, I chose to go a different route with this specialty prop. Last week went to a playoff, and the last time we saw Olympia Fields in action, it also went to a playoff. There is something about a course with very limited birdie opportunities that seems to invite a playoff finish, and we’re due for a more energetic playoff atmosphere at this venue than what we got in the COVID times of 2020.

ONE AND DONE

My Pick: Hideki Matsuyama

I’m sticking to my guns with my featured spotlight player here. It just feels appropriate for Matsuyama to end such a consistent year with his first win since the 2022 Sony Open. His ball-striking remains in great form, and he’s made improvements with the putter with spike results over recent weeks.

If not Matsuyama, I would also consider Xander Schauffele, Viktor Hovland, or Max Homa as OAD picks.

BMW CHAMPIONSHIP: THE BETTING CARD

That’ll do it for this week’s BMW Championship bets. Best of luck this week with your own BMW Championship bets, and see you on Monday for the TOUR Championship! For more, follow TheLines on Twitter

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