2022 BMW Championship Betting Card, Final Thoughts

Written By John Haslbauer on August 17, 2022
bmw championship bets

The BMW Championship is the last bona fide event of the 2022 season before the 30-man staggered start TOUR Championship wraps us up in Atlanta next week. With that said, I’m really looking forward to watching the drama unfold with significant FedEx Cup points at stake. So much so, that I’m heading down to check out my BMW Championship bets in person for Sunday’s final round.

Reports throughout the week have indicated more and more that this track should suit bombers best, without any strategic positioning or forced layup decisions required. With that in mind, I’ve sided with players who are at least above-average to the field in driving distance, and would anticipate a winning score somewhere between -16 to -18. Below we’ll go through my final betting card for the 2022 FedEx St. Jude Championship. Click the odds anywhere in this article to bet the best available prices in your state now. 

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HOW I BUILT MY GOLF BETTING CARD

As much as I love building out a long card and taking some flyers on longshots with gaudy odds, history has shown that hasn’t been the best approach once we get to the limited 70-man field at the BMW Championship.

A small field breeds one of the smallest cards of the season from my perspective, and with the combination of uncertainty with how this course will ultimately play, and so many top names in great form leading up to this week, I’ve defaulted to the tried and true strategy of simply taking the best players with best odds available.

From a unit allocation standpoint, it’s the same old structure as last week.

  • Outrights – 3.1U in to pay 24U each
  • First-round leader 0.5U in to pay out 10U+
  • Props – 2.9U in to pay out 3U+ each

Click on any of the odds below to bet now at the best available price across legal sportsbooks in your state.

BMW CHAMPIONSHIP BETS: OUTRIGHTS (3.1 UNITS)

Matt Fitzpatrick

My Bet: +1800

Best Odds Still Available:

I truly believe you cannot go wrong backing any player below 20-1 odds this week, with each of the top names entering in promising recent form, and all the uncertainty still behind which player’s game the layout should suit the best. I debated between Fitzpatrick, Finau, Cantlay, and Thomas, but ultimately landed on Fitzpatrick on the sheer fact that his odds slipped to the longest available number.

Fitzpatrick is a consummate grinder, and was the first name that came to mind when I got my first look at Wilmington Country Club weeks ago. Since then, reports on the ground seem to indicate this will be less of a grind than originally anticipated, but I’m still drawn to Fitzpatrick’s driving distance and putting metrics on oversized firm and fast Bentgrass greens. The U.S. Open champion has gained strokes across all four categories in five of his last seven starts, with five top-10 finishes over that span. I like the course fit once again this week, and expect him to be in shouting distance of the lead come Sunday.

Xander Schauffele

My Bet: +2200

Best Odds Still Available:

For reasons I’m still trying to comprehend, it’s taken the sportsbooks until after Xander’s two victories in this transcendent 2022 season of his to finally offer up appealing, drifted odds. So in a completely log-jammed week of elite players stacked in the 14 to 18-1 odds range, this is a no brainer value bet for me to back Schauffele on a great course fit.

Schauffele rated out No. 3 in my model this week behind Justin Thomas and Tony Finau thanks to his prowess on comp courses (Torrey Pines, Winged Foot, TPC Harding Park, Kapaula) and top-10 T2G form leading in. Xander also rates out No. 1 in the key stat categories of 3-Putt Avoidance, P3: 200+ Scoring, P5: 600+ Scoring, and Prox: 200+, which should set him up well for a nice bounce back performance to follow his T57 at the FedEx St. Jude Championship.

Cameron Young

My Bet: +3500

Best Odds Still Available:

All signs seem to point to Cameron Young this week, which has been backed up by seemingly every betting card on Twitter. The 35-1 odds did not last very long on DraftKings, but if that miss-price produces a third consecutive week of community wins to follow Tom Kim and Will Zalatoris, then I’ll be happy to have finally joined in on the celebration. It continues to be reported by the players on the grounds this week that bombers can have their way around this course, which should cater well to the strengths of Young’s game, especially on Bentgrass greens upon which the local Northeasterner picked up his first two Korn Ferry Tour wins last season.

BMW CHAMPIONSHIP FIRST-ROUND LEADER (0.5 UNITS)

Taylor Pendrith

My Bet: +6600

Best Odds Still Available:

From a first round leader standpoint, I want exposure to the longest hitters in this field, who would seem to be best equipped to generate the most birdie opportunities with ample wedges in hand. Pendrith was a First Round Leader at the Rocket Mortgage Classic two starts ago on a layout that also encouraged ample drivers off the tee, so a return to Bentgrass should play even further into his strengths.

Harold Varner III

My Bet: +7500

Best Odds Still Available:

Harold Varner III is a darling in the FRL market, primarily due to his inability to close out tournaments despite being a strong all-around course fit. This week, Varner catches an ideal morning tee time, so despite entering off back to back missed cuts, this shapes up to be a solid course to get back on the right track.

Wyndham Clark

My Bet: +8000

Best Odds Still Available:

For the same reasons I’m high on Taylor Pendrith this week, I’m also happy to go right back to Wyndham Clark. Clark is another bomber with spike putting upside who’s closed the 2022 season out in trending form with top-40 finishes in five of his last six starts, and is poised to ride some momentum from the FedEx St. Jude Championship, just barely playing himself into the good side of the top-70 bubble.

Sebastian Munoz

My Bet: +9000

Best Odds Still Available:

This may be the last opportunity to bet Sebastian Munoz FRL in the 2022 season. If it is, let this be a celebratory homage to his herculean Thursday efforts at the RSM Classic and AT&T Byron Nelson.

Kurt Kitayama

My Bet: +10000

Best Odds Still Available:

One more time for the bombers, Kitayama has the booming Driving Distance + Approach upside needed to go low in a given round, which he’s proven most recently with runner up finishes at the Scottish Open and Mexico Open. He’s one of my favorite plays this week from a DFS perspective, and I believe these conditions should cater to his strengths well.

BMW CHAMPIONSHIP BETS: PROPS (2.9 UNITS)

Top-20 Finish: Shane Lowry

My Bet: +125

Best Odds Still Available:

There was unfortunately no room for Shane Lowry on my outright card after prioritizing a tighter, more top-heavy construction. With that said, he’s still one of my favorite fits for this course as evidenced by his only non-Major victory on the PGA TOUR at Robert Trent Jones’ Firestone CC in 2015. Lowry’s T2G game has remained consistent throughout this season, with lackluster putting preventing him from contending more often. It seems he found something at the FedEx St. Jude Championship last week where he gained 3.4 strokes putting however, so the tools are all there to make another top-20 push. Lowry has strung along eight top-25 finishes over his last 12 starts, so in a tighter field of 68 players, I love the plus-odds on this prop.

Top-20 Finish: Taylor Pendrith

My Bet: +220

Best Odds Still Available:

Taylor Pendrith has continued to leave little doubt that long, Driver-Wedge courses are what suits his game best. Prior to the little speedbump at the FedEx St. Jude Championship, Pendrith had strung along five consecutive top-20 finishes, including a runner up at the Rocket Mortgage Classic. He rates out top-5 in SG: OTT in this loaded field, and with Bentgrass being his preferred putting surface, this shapes up to be another strong fit for his game.

Top-20 Finish: Kurt Kitayama

My Bet: +450

Best Odds Still Available:

I do not understand why sportsbooks have evaluated Kurt Kitayama amongst the biggest longshots in this field, but I’ll be taking a stance on him in my DFS shares and in this placement market. Kitayama can attack a course with his driver, ranking top-10 in Driving Distance amongst this field, and has shown the ability to spike with his irons and putting as well with three top-3 finishes on the season. Kitayama was a two-time winner on the DP World Tour in 2019, so I’m not concerned about the FedEx Playoffs feeling like too big of a stage for him, despite what the longshot odds may suggest.

ONE AND DONE

My Pick: Matt Fitzpatrick

This week marks the end of the Mayo Cup OAD season, and unfortunately, it doesn’t appear I’ll be following up the beginner’s luck from last season with any further profits. There is still a large purse at stake, so I’m rolling out the best available player I’ve got left, who just so happens to be the shortest man on my betting card, Matt Fitzpatrick. I’m expecting a top-10 finish from Fitzpatrick this week, and will need him to find his way back in the winners circle if I’m to have any chance of seeing some OAD returns.

If not Fitzpatrick, I would also consider Cameron Young, Xander Schauffele, or Adam Scott.

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BMW CHAMPIONSHIP BETS: THE CARD

That’ll do it for my 2022 BMW Championship bets. Best of luck this week with your own golf betting. See you on Monday for the 2022 TOUR Championship preview.

John Haslbauer Avatar
Written by
John Haslbauer

John Haslbauer writes about golf betting and advanced golf metrics for TheLines.com. He is a passionate golf fan, golf writer, and (casual) golfer. A graduate at Syracuse University, John works out of Jersey City as a Director of Media Strategy for HBO and HBO Max. He created the website thepgatout.com at the start of 2021 and is active on Twitter (@PGATout). No, he is not a tout. The Twitter handle is a joke. Touts are lame. We hate touts.

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