How early into the game do NFL fans know if their team is blowing it?

Written By Nick Crain | Last Updated at January 14, 2026

Football fans decide well before halftime whether their team is going to “blow it” or not. That’s according to a survey conducted by The Lines among 2,500 NFL fans nationwide. But which fanbase reaches their verdict the fastest? And who takes the longest to get that gut feeling?

Key Findings:

On average, football fans make up their minds about the outcome within 27 minutes.
Cardinals and Jets fans reach their verdict the fastest — deciding after only 19 minutes whether the game is headed for success or not.
Saints fans are the most patient in the NFL, taking an average of 37 minutes before deciding whether their team is blowing it or not.

Football fans think they know the outcome before halftime

Is your gut feeling usually right? When it comes to sports, it has been shown countless times that outcomes can’t be predicted. Yet football fans often think they know which way a game is going to go fairly early on. On average, this happens within 27 minutes, according to a survey commissioned by The Lines. That means many fans feel the game is effectively decided for them before halftime.

Which NFL fanbases predict games the fastest?

Of all NFL fanbases, Arizona Cardinals fans and New York Jets supporters are the quickest to feel they can predict whether a game will go well or poorly—on average, just 19 minutes in. That makes them the fastest of all fanbases. Panthers fans aren’t far behind, knowing after an average of 20 minutes what kind of game it’s likely to be. Colts and Giants fans follow closely, with an average of 21 minutes.

Saints, Falcons, and Chiefs fans take their time deciding a game

While the average football fan feels they know how a game will turn out by the 27th minute, some fanbases take a bit longer to reach a conclusion. New Orleans Saints fans take the most time, averaging 37 minutes—the longest of all NFL fanbases. Atlanta Falcons fans aren’t far behind at 36 minutes, while Kansas City Chiefs fans come in third longest at 33 minutes.

Methodology

For the Blew Monday study, The Lines commissioned a survey in 2025 of 2,500 NFL fans across the United States. Participants were asked to identify their favorite team and estimate roughly how many minutes into a game they usually know whether it will be a good or bad game for their team. The sample consisted of 55% male, 44% female, and 1% non-binary respondents, with an average age of 43.4 years.